Index Support and Resistance for Friday, 12/4/2015

  OPEC met, raised crude production quotas to 31.5 million bbls/day.  The rest of global demand, about 60 million barrels per day comes from non-OPEC production exporters. It isn’t clear if the new OPEC quota includes Indonesia, a net importer, which recently rejoined OPEC, or if the current quota simply reflects actual OPEC production.   Estimates of global crude demand suggest that by 2020 the world will need 100 million bbls/day, or about 7 million bbls per day more than current global production.   If conditions have been met to allow Iran to return to the crude export markets mid-2016, the EU and China may take Iranian 2016 crude, to meet improving manufacturing needs and possibly adding to Strategic Petroleum Reserves.
 Way too funny.  If, as the talking heads say,  there really is a global crude “glut”, and per the US EIA we have only 31 days of commercial crude in storage, why are buyers, BUYING, taking possession, transporting, and stuffing crude into storage …?!   Is it FUTURES contango players looking to take advantage of “glut” hype and short sellers?   Where is even ONE explanation of why buyers are BUYING, and ” filling storage to tank tops” from either the talking heads or one or more guests?
 Crude Storage Pop quiz:
 ( 1) If the crude going into storage, then has futures sold against it:
(a)  is that crude supply, or is it then “collateral” and
(b)  NOT supply, until such time as it is no longer collateral?!

( 2) Shouldn’t we be writing, discussing, debating, commenting, on crude in storage
(a)  as to what is “not supply” crude because it is “collateral” and
(b)  on the basis of what is actually, immediately, available to end users (refineries) as “supply crude” because it is not “collateral” ?!

Friday

  •   OPEC meets in Vienna ( keeps production plans in place )
  • 8:30 a.m.: Employment report
  • 8:30 a.m.: International trade
  • 10:15 a.m.: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker welcoming remarks at policy forum
  • 11:45 a.m.: ECB President Draghi at Economic Club of NY
  • 3:45 p.m.: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on policy challenges
  • 4:10 p.m.: Minneapolis Fed President  Kocherlakota on policy re-normalization
  I.  Performance of the Indexes from Thursday, 12/3/2015
Index chart 20151203
  • Dow Jones    17,477.67  -252.01  (-1.42%)     (chart: blue)
  • Nasdaq        5,037.53   -85.70  (-1.67%)     (chart: gold)
  • S&P 500       2,049.62   -29.89  (-1.44%)     (chart: red)
  • Rus 1k (RUI)  1,137.18  -16.73 (-1.45%)
  • Rus 2k (RUT)  1,170.57  -21.12 (-1.77%)
  • Rus 3k (RUA)  1,214.13  -18.18 (-1.47%)
  • CBOE (TNX)       23.30   +1.52 (+6.98%)
  • Volatility (VIX) 18.11   +2.20 (13.83%)
  I. a. Select stocks of interest, from Thursday, 12/3/2015
  • C     53.51  -0.63 (-1.16%)
  • CHK    4.87  -0.65 (-11.78%)   After Hours: 4.89 +0.02 (0.41%)
  • GE    30.00  +0.03 (0.10%)
  • MU    15.61  -0.21 (-1.33%)   After Hours: 15.65 +0.04 (0.26%)
  • VRNG   3.16   0.00 (0.00%)
  I. b. Sector summary from Thursday, 12/3/2015
  • Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)
  • Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods ……………… -0.77%
  • Basic Materials ……………………………. -0.84%
  • Telecommunications Srvcs ……………… -0.87%
  • Utilities ……………………………………… -0.96%
  • Industrials …………………………. -1.19%
  • Technology ………………………….. -1.25%
  • Financials ………………………….. -1.28%
  • Energy ……………………………… -1.29%
  • Cyclical Cons. Goods …………………. -1.44%
  • Healthcare …………………….. -1.98%
 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Thursday, 12/3/2015
  •   USA  Bonds
  • 3 Month  0.17%  0.00 (0.00%)
  • 6 Month  0.40%  +0.04 (11.11%)
  • 2 Year  0.94%  -0.02 (-2.08%)
  • 5 Year  1.74%  +0.05 (2.96%)
  • 10 Year  2.32%  +0.09 (4.04%)
  • 30 Year  3.05%  +0.10 (3.39%)
III.  Index Support and Resistance for Friday, 12/4/2015
Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  I added the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) calculations to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
  •  If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
  •  If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
  •  Please Note: ALL projections are for reference only. 
      _______ 

 

( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
  •   Closed 12/3 down @ 17477.67
  •   :: Pivot point   17561.27
  •   Support (s1)  17341.96     Support (s2)   17206.24
  •   Resistance (r1)   17696.99   Resistance (r2)   17916.30
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    17351.67
  •   52 week performance   -2.43%  YTD performance  -1.94%
( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
  •   Closed 12/3 down @ 5037.53
  •   :: Pivot point   5064.62
  •   Support (s1)  4984.63       Support (s2)  4931.74
  •   Resistance (r1)  5117.51    Resistance (r2)  5197.50
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  4950.42
  •   52 week performance +5.62%  YTD performance  +6.37%
( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
  •   Closed 12/3 down @ 2049.62
  •   :: Pivot point  2058.99
  •   Support (s1)  2032.98        Support (s2)  2016.34
  •   Resistance (r1) 2075.63      Resistance (r2)  2101.64
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  2040.96
  •   52 week performance  -1.08%  YTD performance  -0.45%
  •   :: Projected High: 2,067.31,   Projected Low: 2,024.66

( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI)

  •   Closed 12/3 down @ 1137.18
  • :: Pivot point   1142.38
  •   Support (s1)  1127.82    Support (s2)  1118.46
  •   Resistance (r1)  1151.74  Resistance (r2)  1166.30
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1126.38
  •   52 week performance  -1.20%  YTD performance  -0.99%
( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
  •   Closed 12/3 down @ 1170.57
  •   :: Pivot point  1178.47
  •   Support (s1)  1160.25     Support (s2)  1149.94
  •   Resistance (r1) 1188.78   Resistance (r2)  1207.00
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1161.46
  •   52 week performance -0.21%  YTD performance  -2.83%
( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA)
  •   Closed 12/3 down @ 1214.13
  •   :: Pivot point   1219.86
  •   Support (s1) 1204.11   Support (s2)  1194.09
  •   Resistance (r1)  1229.88   Resistance (r2)  1245.63
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1208.69
  •   52 week performance -1.31%  YTD performance  +0.72%
( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
  •   Closed 12/3 up @ 23.30
  •   :: Pivot point    22.94
  •   Support (s1)  22.40       Support (s2)  21.51
  •   Resistance (r1)  22.83    Resistance (r2)  24.37
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  21.56
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  21.90
  •   :: Close (1 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  +1.395 (+6.369%)  
  •   :: 52 week performance +3.23%  YTD performance  +7.37%
( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
  •   Closed 12/3 up @ 18.11
  •   :: Pivot point    17.77
  •   Support (s1)  16.20      Support (s2)  14.28
  •   Resistance (r1)  19.69    Resistance (r2)  21.26
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  17.24
  •   :: 52 week performance +53.21%  YTD performance  -5.68%

  _______

IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Friday, 12/4/2015

 
  • Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
  •   Dow Jones,    17,629.13      17,274.10
  •   Nasdaq,           5,091.07        4,958.19
  •   S&P 500,         2,067.31        2,024.66
  •   Russell 1000,  1,147.06        1,123.14
  •   Russell 2000,  1,183.63        1,155.10
  •   Russell 3000,  1,224.87       1,199.10
  •   CBOE TNX,         24.10    22.67
  •   Volatility,           20.48    16.99
     ———— Friday, 12/4/2015 —————-
 Please read:
 (4) Chesapeake Energy Corp (NYSE: CHK)
  Have a great day investing, or trading …

 

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