I have another 30 works in progress, including a drafts on crude and on the XLE … these drafts are a compilation of data, observations, and analysis, fundamentals, databases, spreadsheets, charts, sentiment, notes from conference calls, fireside chats, et cetera. Taking all that information, and putting it in a easily understandable blog, minimizing the tech-speak (aka geek-speak) is WORK. However, it is my money, your money, our money, … and so, as I go thru the relevant information, I am also thinking, and re-thinking, my observations, and investments based on analyses of that information … sometimes, my original opinion remains, and occasionally, fresh information alters my opinion. More often than not, new information brings with it new questions. So does one rush to post new information … or attempt to answer the questions? It would seem answering the questions first would be a prudent course of action … especially where investing your own money is concerned. Whether you are a Bull, or a Bear, you/I/we have to be prepared that new information, data, evidence, and/or analysis can, and will alter your/my/our Reward/Risk investing opinions, and thereby our investments, the question is whether you/I/we will pay attention … or not?
Please bear with me … there are serious USA Energy Sector concerns coming.
II. b. US Energy Information Administration (US EIA)
- Weekly Supply Estimates
- This Week in Petroleum
- Crude oil storage and capacity have increased in Cushing, Oklahoma and U.S. Gulf Coast
For both Bulls and Bears:
Reuters current XLE quote and more
Related previous XLE analysis:
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Statistical analysis is a data dependent analysis of “sets”, subsets, and subsets of subsets, and how the subsets “statistically” corelate to the set. The global markets are the top set. The USA markets are a top set, but also a subset of the global markets. Indexes, or Indices, Sectors, industries, sub-Industries, and even companies are all subsets of the global markets and the USA’s markets. When we analyse data we look to get back usable information, using the past to make projections about the short term, intermediate term, and long term future.
The accuracy, and the integrity, of an analysis depends on the data the analyst has, the data the analyst doesn’t have, his/her education, experience, and insights, as well as any biases the analyst allows to creap into his/her work. However, as we expand our analysis, we may find limitations in that we may not have necessary, additional raw “data” and we can get into trouble if we substitute “estimates”, or “guess-timates” for missing data in order to calculate a potential outcome anyway. Some call this analysis modelling.
Currently, the press and short seller focus on the crude going into storage (a subset) hyping “global oversupply”, “domestic oversupply”, and “glut” is detrimentally masking the troubling issues with the OPEC “reported” crude production numbers … crude production numbers that DO determine the valuations of USA companies, whole USA industries, the Energy Sector, and it DOES spill over to the other sectors.
This “fudge the production numbers game” also works against non-OPEC members, like USA shale crude Exploration and Production companies … getting them to (1) cut REAL production, and (2) losing market share, while cheaters, cutting only imaginary production … profit from increased prices … and INCREASED market share.
Thankfully, someone else has noticed 2 + 2 – 1 doesn’t equal 10 …
Will the short sellers and press claim ignorance, and also claim they were blameless beneficiaries, or victims, of the misinformation … production misinformation that they should be fact checking, and reporting on, but aren’t … even NOW??
- U. S. government Overseas Assassination 101
- Index Support and Resistance for Wednesday, 3/9/2016
- Index Support and Resistance for Thursday, 3/10/2016
- Index Support and Resistance for Friday, 3/11/2016
- Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 3/14/2016
- Index Support and Resistance for Tuesday, 3/15/2016
- Index Support and Resistance for Wednesday, 3/16/2016
- Correction, pullback, or Bear Market? Part 3
( x) All Links can be opened in a new tab or new window …
- ( xi ) I will be returning and adding more related chart info including links to charts with daily, weekly, and monthly chart analysis
- It’s Black Friday for OPEC
- Chesapeake Energy Corp (NYSE: CHK)
- Correction, pullback, or Bear Market? Part 2
- Correction, pullback, or Bear Market? Part 1