Index Support and Resistance for Friday, 4/1/2016

 

  Below you will find the Index Support and Resistance for Friday, 4/1/2016 as calculated from the changes in Index points through Thursday, 3/31/2016’s close. 
 Finally, 22 trading days of March 2016 are now historical data … to be probed, prodded, analysed, discussed, debated, “data mined” and extrapolated for Q2’2016 projections and prognostications.
 Today is also “All Fools Day”, AKA “April Fool’s Day” when unsuspecting individuals fall victim to pranks.  Will you be a perpetrator … or a victim?     GLTA
  Let’s take a kwik look at Tables 1 and 2 below, for how the indexes finished 3/30/16, against whether they closed Wednesday above^, or below*, their “projected” Pivot Point for Thursday … before Thursday’s trading even began, and the outcome:
                              —  —  —
 Table 1: Index performance Thursday, 3/31/2016
  •          Wednesday …,        for Thursday ,     ….  3/31/16 Close
  • Dow Jones … (below PP), Pivot point (PP) 17719.71,  Down & below PP
  • Nasdaq ……. (below PP), Pivot point (PP)  4875.93,  Up but below PP
  • S&P 500 …… (below PP), Pivot point (PP)  2064.81,  Down & below PP
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   (below PP), Pivot point (PP)  1140.71,  Down & below PP
  • Rus 2k (RUT)  (below PP), Pivot point (PP)  1111.84,  Up but below PP
  • Rus 3k (RUA)  (below PP), Pivot point (PP)  1212.90,  Down & below PP
  • CBOE (TNX)    (below PP), Pivot point (PP)    18.35,  Down & below PP  
  • Volatility(VIX) (above PP), Pivot point (PP)    13.50,  Up and above PP
  Bulls “buy” because they think prices are heading higher.  Bears sell, or short, because they believe prices are heading lower.  The sideways correction occurs because both the bulls, and the bears, have no confidence, faith, conviction, and/or tolerance for Risk in their guesses (projections) for the markets’ direction.
In Table 1 above, the pivot points are calculated off prices, or points, indicating what buyers (bulls) are willing to pay, and what prices, or points, sellers (bears) are willing to sell for, or short at.  The Wednesday Index closes below the pivot points for Thursday, indicated buyers (bulls) didn’t think prices were going higher and so weren’t in the mood to buy … except (maybe) at lower prices.  While the Sellers (bears), having been repeatedly burned in the past, and knowing there are tons of cash sitting on the sidelines … appear to be okay with some selling, such as Bull and Bear profit taking; but, don’t appear to be willing to RISK shorting the markets lower.   … i.e. a sideways correction.
                         —  —  —
 Table 2: Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Thursday, 3/31/2016
  • Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low, Actual High, Actual Low
  •   Dow Jones  .…. 17822.26  …  17684.51 …. 17755.70  17669.72
  •   Nasdaq ………..  4884.22  …   4844.43 …..  4891.30   4864.41
  •   S&P 500   ……..  2075.05  …   2061.11 ……  2067.92   2057.46
  •   Russell 1000 ….  1146.98  …   1138.53 …….. 1143.08     1137.54
  •   Russell 2000 ….  1118.71  …   1109.09 ……. 1117.79      1109.53
  •   Russell 3000 ….  1219.46  …   1210.57 ……. 1215.57     1209.83
  •   CBOE TNX ………    18.67  …     18.23   ………   18.32        17.83
  •   Volatility ………..    13.73  …     12.90   ……..   14.28         13.49
  The same analysis goes for projections of the Open-High-Low-Close (OHLC) prices, or points, indicating what buyers (bulls)  might be, or are willing to pay, and what prices, or points, sellers (bears) might be, or are willing to sell for, or short at.
Databases and spreadsheets are great tools for comparing the actual Open-High-Low-Close (OHLC) prices, or points, against the projections … gathering the differences, and then doing further statistical analysis.   Looking at Table 2 above,  … the projected low for the Nasdaq was 4844.43 but the actual low was above that at 4864.41 a positive 19.98 points, or +0.41243%.  This is a bullish factor.
                —  —   —
 Index chart 20160331
 Index performance Thursday, 3/31/2016
  • Dow Jones … 17,685.09  -31.57  (-0.18%)    (chart: blue)
  • Nasdaq ……  4,869.85   +0.55  (+0.01%)    (chart: gold)
  • S&P 500 …..  2,059.74   -4.21  (-0.20%)    (chart:  red)
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   1,138.84  -1.58 (-0.14%)
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1,114.03  +3.59 (+0.32%)
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1,211.17  -1.26 (-0.10%)
  • CBOE (TNX)        17.86  -0.44 (-2.40%)
  • Volatility(VIX)   13.95  +0.39 (+2.88%)
 I. a. Select stocks of interest, from Thursday, 3/31/2016
  • AAPL   108.99  -0.57 (-0.52%)   After Hours: 109.03 +0.04 (0.04%)
  • C …..      41.74  -0.14 (-0.33%)
  • CHK …     4.11  +0.10 (+2.49%)   After Hours:   4.10 -0.01 (-0.24%)
  • GE ….     31.80  -0.03 (-0.09%)   After Hours:  31.85 +0.05 (0.16%)
  • JCP ….    11.06  -0.16 (-1.43%)   After Hours: 11.07 +0.01 (0.09%)
  • MPC ..    37.15  +0.57 (+1.56%)   After Hours: 37.18 +0.03 (0.08%)
  • MU ..     10.47  -0.01 (-0.10%)   After Hours:  10.45 -0.02 (-0.19%)
  • VRNG     1.64  +0.01 (+0.61%)
  • VZ ..     54.08  +0.04 (+0.07%)   After Hours: 54.12 +0.04 (0.07%)
I. b. Sector summary from Thursday, 3/31/2016
Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)
  • Utilities …………………. +0.63%
  • Healthcare ……………… +0.04%
  • Cyclical Cons. Goods ……………. -0.15%
  • Technology ……………………….. -0.18%
  • Energy ……………………………… -0.19%
  • Industrials ………………………… -0.23%
  • Financials …………………………. -0.28%
  • Telecommunications Srvcs …….. -0.39%
  • Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods ……… -0.44%
  • Basic Materials …………………. -0.82%
 
 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Thursday, 3/31/2016
  II. a.  USA  Bonds
  • 3 Month  0.20%  +0.02 (11.11%)
  • 6 Month  0.33%  +0.00 (0.00%)
  •  2 Year  0.73%  -0.01 (-1.35%)
  •  5 Year  1.19%  -0.05 (-4.03%)
  • 10 Year  1.77%  -0.05 (-2.75%)
  • 30 Year  2.61%  -0.04 (-1.51%)

 II. b.   US Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

 III.  Index Support and Resistance for “All Fools’ Day” … Friday, 4/1/2016
  Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  See Section V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015) to track changes in this info.  See the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) calculations added to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
  If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
 Please Note: ALL projections are for reference only as they can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
–   –   –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

  Note: in working the data for Tables 1 and 2 above, I made some observations I want to test … then I’ll add the rest of the story below …

I went thru over a dozen databases and spreadsheets … and I need to do more homework, think thru and write some  new equations, then test and back test to see if my observations merit further consideration.  So, sorry, I am belatedly, posting the rest of my calculations.

 

( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
Closed 3/31 down  @  17,685.09  -31.57  (-0.18%) (below PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   17703.50
  •   Support (s1)  17651.31       Support (s2)   17617.52
  •   Resistance (r1)   17737.29   Resistance (r2)   17789.48
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    16698.42       (up tick  3/16)
  •   52 week performance  -0.51%  YTD performance  +1.49%
( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
Closed 3/31 up  @  4,869.85   +0.55  (+0.01%)  (below PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  4875.19
  •   Support (s1)   4859.07      Support (s2)  4848.30
  •   Resistance (r1)  4885.96    Resistance (r2)  4902.08
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  4601.45          (up tick  3/21)
  •   52 week performance  -0.21%  YTD performance  -2.75%
( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
Closed 3/31 down  @  2,059.74   -4.21  (-0.20%)  (below PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  2061.71
  •   Support (s1)  2055.49        Support (s2)  2051.25
  •   Resistance (r1)  2065.95     Resistance (r2)  2072.17
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1954.08          (up tick  3/16)
  •   52 week performance  +0.00%  YTD performance  +0.77%
  •   :: Projected High: 2063.83   Projected Low:  2053.37
( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI) (ETF: IWD)
Closed 3/31 down  @  1,138.84  -1.58 (-0.14%)  (below PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1139.82
  •   Support (s1)  1136.56      Support (s2)  1134.28
  •   Resistance (r1)  1142.10   Resistance (r2)  1145.36
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1078.07          (up tick  3/16)
  •   52 week performance  -1.57%  YTD performance  +0.61%
( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
Closed 3/31 up  @  1,114.03  +3.59 (+0.32%)  (above PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  1113.78
  •   Support (s1)   1109.78      Support (s2)   1105.52
  •   Resistance (r1)  1118.04    Resistance (r2)  1122.04
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1039.53          (up tick  3/18)
  •   52 week performance  -11.00%  YTD performance  -1.92%
( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA)
Closed 3/31 down   @  1,211.17  -1.26 (-0.10%)  (below PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1212.19
  •   Support (s1)   1208.81     Support (s2)  1206.45
  •   Resistance (r1)  1214.55   Resistance (r2)  1217.93
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1143.00           (up tick  3/16)
  •   52 week performance   -2.33%    YTD performance  +0.42%
( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
Closed 3/31 down  @   17.86  -0.44 (-2.40%)  (below PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    18.00
  •   Support (s1)    17.69      Support (s2)  17.51
  •   Resistance (r1)  18.18     Resistance (r2)  18.49
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  18.59
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  21.51
  •   :: Close (59 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  (-3.646) (-16.953%)
  •   :: 52 week performance  -4.39%   YTD performance  -21.29%
( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
Closed 3/31 up  @  13.95  +0.39 (+2.88%)  (above PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    13.91
  •   Support (s1)    13.53      Support (s2)   13.12
  •   Resistance (r1) 14.32     Resistance (r2)  14.70
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  19.60
  •   :: 52 week performance   -4.91%   YTD performance  -23.39%
  •     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
 IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Friday, 4/1/2016
  • Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
  •   Dow Jones …. 17720.40  …  17634.42
  •   Nasdaq……..  4894.02  …   4867.13
  •   S&P 500 ……  2063.83  …   2053.37
  •   Russell 1000 .  1140.96  …   1135.42
  •   Russell 2000 .  1120.04  …   1111.78
  •   Russell 3000 .  1213.37  …   1207.63
  •   CBOE TNX …..    18.09  …     17.60
  •   Volatility …    14.51  …     13.72
 V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015)
  • Dow Jones    18351.36 15370.33  (17425.03)
  • Nasdaq        5231.94    4209.76   (5007.41)
  • S&P 500       2134.72    1810.10   (2043.94)
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)  1191.59     995.55   (1069.65)
  • Rus 2k (RUT)  1296.00     943.10   (1135.89)
  • Rus 3k (RUA)  1275.89    1056.45   (1206.10)
  • CBOE (TNX)       24.89     15.67    (22.69)
  • Volatility(VIX)  53.29     10.88    (18.21)
  •    —     —     —     —     —     —
——  Monday, 3/28/2016 thru Friday 4/1/2016  ——-

 

( x)   All Links can be opened in a new tab or new window …

  •  ( xi )  I will be returning and adding more related chart info including links to charts with  daily, weekly, and monthly chart analysis

 

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Hope the above Index Support and Resistance calculations for Friday, 4/1/2016
help your investing and trading today …

 

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