Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 4/4/2016

 

  Below you will find the Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 4/4/2016 as calculated from the changes in Index points through Friday, 4/1/2016’s close.  There are twenty more trading days in April.
  The S&P 500 is 8.84 points above its Pivot for Monday.  The S&P 500 is (-61.940) points off its 52 week high, or (-2.902%).  Only two sectors were down Friday, Telecommunications Srvcs -0.09%, and Energy -1.54%.  However, the Energy sector analysts need to address the differences in OPEC reported crude production and lower numbers gleaned from secondary sources.  The OPEC daily crude production appears to be missing a million barrels, or more.   Supply and demand calculations (calcs) distorted by “fake supply”  should be adjusted, and the adjusted supply numbers imply the bottom in crude may be in.
When the media is focused on supply and demand, as they should be, one has to question WHY the media isn’t doing more to “verify” OPEC production “supply” that may include “fake” OPEC production?   Report on the differences, and strive to get to the bottom, i.e. the motives, of the OPEC culprits misreporting crude production.   [ I have drafts, not posted, because they either need more homework, … or because 2 + 2 isn’t adding up to 4 and I need to do Facts verification. ]    Accuracy matters!
In a ZERO and even “negative” interest rate environment, Crude buyers, especially the refineries, are still buying crude. The USA is now exporting crude, shortly LNG, and refineries are exporting refined petroleum products, global storage capacity is growing; therefore, the hype about “glut”, “filling to tank tops”, and global “over supply” appears to be what needs to change.
The USA elected officials are exporting manufacturing jobs .. and we’re left with low paying service jobs.  The free trade agreements that export USA jobs, also export USA GDP GROWTH,  … need to be trashed.  Consumers, stuck in low paying jobs, can’t afford the burden of $100+ crude.  More crude storage points to normalization of 2016 crude at $40 to $50, then 2017 crude at $50 to $60, per barrel.  At some point, (1) the USA E&P bankruptcies, and cap-ex cuts imposed on USA exploration and production companies (E&P) by OPEC, (2) the return of global growth in demand for refined petroleum products, and (3) rising interest rates, WILL lead to crude storage drawdowns, … and higher crude prices.         Why are we allowing OPEC to bankrupt USA companies?  It’s setting a really BAD financial warfare precedent!    
Think about it … address the many  current China issues, like hacking, and reward good China behavior  with an annually renewable permit to purchase USA shale crude and Natural Gas.  China will save a chunk of change on shipping crude all the way from the Middle East.  If China goes back to bad behavior, don’t renew, or pull the permits.   Put our USA E&P people BACK TO WORK!   
Index chart 20160401
 Index performance Friday, 4/1/2016
  • Dow Jones    17,792.75  +107.66  (+0.61%)     (chart: blue)
  • Nasdaq  …      4,914.54   +44.69  (+0.92%)     (chart: gold)
  • S&P 500  ..     2,072.78   +13.04  (+0.63%)     (chart:  red)
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)    1,145.77  +6.93 (+0.61%)
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1,117.68  +3.66 (+0.33%)
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1,218.29  +7.12 (+0.59%)
  • CBOE (TNX)          17.92  +0.06 (+0.34%)
  • Volatility(VIX)      13.10  -0.85 (-6.09%)

 

  Let’s take a kwik look at Tables 1 and 2 below, for how the indexes finished Thursday 3/31/16, against whether they closed Thursday already above^, or below*, their “projected” Pivot Points for Friday … before Friday trading even began, and then Friday’s intraday trading into the close and the end result:
 Table 1: Index performance Thursday, 3/31/2016
  •          Thursday …        for  Friday     ….  4/1/16 Close
  • Dow Jones … (below PP), Pivot point (PP) 17703.50,  Up and above PP
  • Nasdaq …… (below PP), Pivot point (PP)  4875.19,  Up and above PP
  • S&P 500 ….. (below PP), Pivot point (PP)  2061.71,  Up and above PP
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)  (below PP), Pivot point (PP)  1139.82,  Up and above PP
  • Rus 2k (RUT)  (above PP), Pivot point (PP)  1113.78,  Up and above PP
  • Rus 3k (RUA)  (below PP), Pivot point (PP)  1212.19,  Up and above PP
  • CBOE (TNX)    (below PP), Pivot point (PP)    18.00,  Up and above PP
  • Volatility(VIX) (abv PP), Pivot point (PP)    13.91,  Down & below PP
 Table 2: Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Friday, 4/1/2016
  • Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low, Actual High, Actual Low
  •   Dow Jones …. 17720.40  …  17634.42 …. 17811.48,  17568.02
  •   Nasdaq……..  4894.02  …   4867.13 ….  4917.09,  4832.06
  •   S&P 500 ……  2063.83  …   2053.37 ….  2075.07,  2043.98
  •   Russell 1000 .  1140.96  …   1135.42 ….  1146.92,  1129.73
  •   Russell 2000 .  1120.04  …   1111.78 ….  1118.39,  1102.12
  •   Russell 3000 .  1213.37  …   1207.63 ….  1219.48,  1201.29
  •   CBOE TNX …..    18.09  …     17.60 ….    18.1417.62
  •   Volatility …    14.51  …     13.72 ….    15.28,  13.00
 I. a. Select stocks of interest, from Friday, 4/1/2016
  • AAPL   109.99  +1.00 (+0.92%)   After Hours: 110.00 +0.01 (+0.01%)
  • C  ….     42.47  +0.73 (+1.75%)    After Hours:   42.45 -0.02 (-0.05%)
  • CHK …     3.84  -0.28 (-6.80%)    After Hours:      3.85 +0.01 (+0.26%)
  • GE  …    31.94  +0.15 (+0.47%)   After Hours:    31.94 +0.00 (+0.00%)
  • JCP  ….   10.64  -0.43 (-3.84%)    After Hours:    10.65 +0.01 (+0.14%)
  • MPC  ..   36.39  -0.79 (-2.12%)    After Hours:    36.39 +0.00 (+0.00%)
  • MU …     11.03  +0.56 (+5.35%)   After Hours:    10.98 -0.05 (-0.45%)
  • VRNG …    1.61  -0.03 (-1.83%)
  • VZ  …..    54.02  -0.06 (-0.11%)
 I. b. Sector summary from Friday, 4/1/2016
Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)
  • Healthcare ……………………… +1.13% 
  • Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods ….. +0.97%    
  • Basic Materials ………………… +0.48%  
  • Technology …………………….. +0.47% 
  • Financials ………………………. +0.33%    
  • Utilities …………………………. +0.15%  
  • Industrials ……………………… +0.14% 
  • Cyclical Cons. Goods …………. +0.08%    
  • Telecommunications Srvcs ………….. -0.09% 
  • Energy  …………………………………….-1.54%    
 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Friday, 4/1/2016
  II. a.  USA  Bonds
  • 3 Month  0.21%  -0.01 (-4.55%)
  • 6 Month  0.34%  -0.02 (-5.56%)
  •  2 Year  0.74%  -0.01 (-1.33%)
  •  5 Year  1.21%   0.00 (0.00%)
  • 10 Year  1.77%  -0.01 (-0.56%)
  • 30 Year  2.60%   0.00 (0.00%)

 II. b.   US Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

 III.  Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 4/4/2016
 Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  See Section V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015) to track changes in this info.  See the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) calculations added to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
 Please Note: ALL projections are for reference only as they can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.

–   –   –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
Closed 4/1 up  @  17,792.75  +107.66  (+0.61%) (above PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   17724.08
  •   Support (s1)  17636.69       Support (s2)   17480.62
  •   Resistance (r1)   17880.15   Resistance (r2)   17967.54
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    16738.94       (uptrend  3/16)
  •   52 week performance  +0.53%  YTD performance  +2.11%
( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
Closed 4/1 up  @  4,914.54   +44.69  (+0.92%)  (above PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  4887.90
  •   Support (s1)   4858.70       Support (s2)  4802.87
  •   Resistance (r1)  4943.73    Resistance (r2)  4972.93
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  4610.31          (uptrend  3/21)
  •   52 week performance  +0.56%   YTD performance  -1.85%
( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
Closed 4/1 up  @  2,072.78   +13.04  (+0.63%)  (above PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  2063.94
  •   Support (s1)  2052.82        Support (s2)  2032.85
  •   Resistance (r1)  2083.91     Resistance (r2)  2095.03
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1958.35          (uptrend  3/16)
  •   52 week performance  +0.28%  YTD performance  +1.41%
  •   :: Projected High: 2089.47   Projected Low:  2058.38
( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI) (ETF: IWD)
Closed 4/1 up  @  1,145.77  +6.93 (+0.61%)  (above PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1140.81
  •   Support (s1)  1134.69      Support (s2)  1123.62
  •   Resistance (r1)  1151.88   Resistance (r2)  1158.00
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1080.47          (uptrend  3/16)
  •   52 week performance  -0.57%  YTD performance  +1.23%
( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
Closed 4/1 up  @  1,117.68  +3.66 (+0.33%)  (above PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  1112.73
  •   Support (s1)   1107.07      Support (s2)   1096.46
  •   Resistance (r1)  1123.34    Resistance (r2)  1129.00
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1041.90          (uptrend  3/18)
  •   52 week performance  -10.99%  YTD performance  -1.60%
( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA)
Closed 4/1 up   @  1,218.29  +7.12 (+0.59%)  (above PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1213.02
  •   Support (s1)   1206.56     Support (s2)  1194.83
  •   Resistance (r1)  1224.75   Resistance (r2)  1231.21
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1145.21           (uptrend  3/16)
  •   52 week performance   -2.39%    YTD performance  +1.01%
( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
Closed 4/1 up  @   17.92  +0.06 (+0.34%)  (above PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    17.89
  •   Support (s1)    17.65      Support (s2)  17.37
  •   Resistance (r1)  18.17     Resistance (r2)  18.41
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  18.56
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  21.48
  •   :: Close (60 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  (-3.558) (-16.566%)
  •   :: 52 week performance  -5.88%   YTD performance  -21.02%
( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
Closed 4/1 down  @  13.10  -0.85 (-6.09%)  (below PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    13.79
  •   Support (s1)    12.31      Support (s2)   11.51
  •   Resistance (r1) 14.59     Resistance (r2)  16.07
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  19.32
  •   :: 52 week performance   -11.13%   YTD performance  -28.06%
  •     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
 IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Monday, 4/4/2016
  • Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
  •   Dow Jones …. 17923.85  …  17680.39
  •   Nasdaq……..  4958.33  …   4873.30
  •   S&P 500 ……  2089.47  …   2058.38
  •   Russell 1000 .  1154.94  …   1137.75
  •   Russell 2000 .  1126.17  …   1109.90
  •   Russell 3000 .  1227.98  …   1209.79
  •   CBOE TNX …..    18.29  …     17.77
  •   Volatility …    14.19  …     11.91
 V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015)
  • Dow Jones    18351.36 15370.33  (17425.03)
  • Nasdaq        5231.94    4209.76   (5007.41)
  • S&P 500       2134.72    1810.10   (2043.94)
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)  1191.59     995.55   (1069.65)
  • Rus 2k (RUT)  1296.00     943.10   (1135.89)
  • Rus 3k (RUA)  1275.89    1056.45   (1206.10)
  • CBOE (TNX)       24.89     15.67    (22.69)
  • Volatility(VIX)  53.29     10.88    (18.21)
  •    —     —     —     —     —     —
——  Monday, 3/28/2016 thru Friday 4/1/2016  ——-

 

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Hope the above Index Support and Resistance calculations for Monday, 4/4/2016
help your investing and trading today …

 

 

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