SELECT SECTOR SPDR ENERGY FUND (XLE) (d-w-m) (p3)

OPEC and non-OPEC members are heading to a meeting this month, on April 17th, in the Qatari capital, to discuss, debate and possibly arrive at a crude production freeze … each at their respective  January 2016 crude production levels.   The OPEC producers are thinking, (1)  the global stagnation will abate,  (2) global growth will return,  (3) demand for refined petroleum products will draw down the stored crude “over supply”, (4) high cost exploration and production companies (E&P), like USA shale,  will be bankrupt and put out of business, allowing OPEC members to maintain market share and RAISE prices … etc.

Analysts and the media keep arguing  the globe is oversupplied.  Laughingly, the crude BUYERS not only aren’t listening to either the analysts, … or the media, because in a zero interest rate environment, and even negative interest rate environment, they are BUYING crude, taking possession, transporting, loading crude into storage … and yep, even building MORE storage.   OPEC isn’t listening to the analysts, … or the media, either; because, (1) yes the number of days of commercial crude in storage is above historical norms, but (2) globally, we running thru 90+ million barrels of crude per day.

Per the US EIA, as of 3/25/2016, the USA has 33.4 days of commercial crude stocks in storage, down 0.1 days of supply from the 33.5 days of supply on Quadruple Witching Friday 3/18/2016.   Not a YEAR’s supply, not 6 months of supply, not even 90 days of supply … but 1.1 MONTH’s of crude supply.   WOW!     Turn off the spigots already … and in 1.1 MONTHS … we’re  running on FUMES … or, WALKING!    Yeah!

 

 II. b.   US Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

 

Without further ado, let’s look at the XLE charts to see if someone, ANYONE,  is ignoring the talk and paying attention to the math.   

————————-

 I.  Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P)

 xle 20160401raf
Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P) Daily chart #1
  In the above Daily XLE chart #1, the major channel is in a down trend, HOWEVER, since late January, there is an up trending channel in the Daily XLE chart heading for the 200 day simple moving average.
xle 20160401d
Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P) Daily chart #2
(1)  Analysis of Daily XLE chart activity through Friday’s (4/1/2016) close @ 61.00
The current Daily XLE chart trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered.   If already holding long positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to 60.41.   Traders with remaining long positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of 60.41.   Be prepared for a potential short term price fall back to the 60.81 area.
   Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
If Long,  exit all contracts at:     60.41
If Short,  exit all contracts at:     64.27
Additional Weekly chart observations, analysis, and projections
  ( more to follow )
xle 20160401w
(2) Analysis of Weekly chart activity through Friday’s (4/1/2016) close @ 61.00
   The current Weekly XLE chart trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered.  If already holding short positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to 64.27.  Traders with remaining short positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of 64.27.  Be prepared for a potential short term price climb back to the 61.35  area.
Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
If Long,  exit all contracts at:     49.94
If Short,  exit all contracts at:     64.27

 

xle 20160401m

(3) Analysis of Monthly chart activity through Friday’s (4/1/2016) close @ 61.00
   The current Monthly XLE chart trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered.  Market activity Monthly XLE chart analysis suggests short trades.  The current market price activity is Strongly Bearish and suggests favorable trade opportunities on the short side.  If already holding short positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to 71.93.  Traders with remaining short positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of 83.66.  Be prepared for a potential short term price rally back to the 70.20 area.
Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
If Long,  exit all contracts at:     49.94
If Short,  exit all contracts at:     83.66

 

In summary, the up trending channel, since late January, is visible in every chart, so it would appear someone is indeed paying attention to the math.   Personally, I suspect, the OPEC members agreeing to the freeze will be getting rid of the “fake” production secondary sources couldn’t verify … or confirm, one way or the other, … while the non-OPEC members actually freeze, or cut, REAL production.    OPEC wins.

 

——  Monday, 3/28/2016 thru Friday 4/1/2016  ——-

 

( x)   All Links can be opened in a new tab or new window …

  •  ( xi )  I will be returning and adding more related chart info including links to charts with  daily, weekly, and monthly chart analysis

 

Please read:

      The Daily-Weekly-Monthly (d-w-m) Chart(s) and analysis information above is not a buy/sell/sell short recommendation from me.   Disclosure:  I do not own XLE, or trade XLE, at this time, the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF), or Exchange Traded Notes (ETN), charted above..     This is merely part of my own homework and my own due diligence on the ETFs and ETNs as they may, or may not, influence the Indexes, Sectors, Industries, sub-industries, and thereby influence, or not, the performance of stocks, et cetera that I do own.
 
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