Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 4/25/2016

 

  Below you will find the Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 4/25/2016 as calculated from the changes in Index points through Friday, 4/22/2016’s close.
 Below you will also find two new tables.
 Table VI.  Index Pivot Point Performance from Friday, 4/22/2016 reports how the indexes performed versus their Pivot points for Friday.
  Table VII.  Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets Outlook for Monday, 4/25/2016 is a PROs/CONs, Bull/Bear projection of the Index performance on Friday versus its Pivot points for Monday.  This table uses Index performance vs Pivot point, individually, and collectively, as one piece of my personal indicator for markets (Index, Sector, Industry, sub-industry, and company, Funds, etc.) “Sentiment.”
 Sentiment:  We are all aware OPEC, and especially Saudi Arabia’s drive for crude export market share is undermining the Energy Sector stocks, which is undermining USA Index and global index performance.  A second piece of the puzzle for USA and global investors, is the Markets appetite, or aversion, to RISK, which is also a measure of Sentiment.  A third piece of the sentiment puzzle is the USA and global markets addiction to Quantitative Easing (QE) through the global Central Banks manipulation of interest rates, and even implementation of untested negative interest rates, as this applies to currencies versus the US dollar (USD), which hurts USA companies sales in foreign currencies against a strong USD, and again when USA companies exchange those foreign currencies for US dollars … Earnings season Double whammy!  Another piece of the sentiment puzzle is currency exchange rates against the USD as it applies to commodities … like crude … which affects the Energy sector companies, which affects the Indices.  There is more … much more.  If reading this paragraph gives you a headache, like doing the homework gave me … I apologize.  Unfortunately, doing my own homework, at this point in time … tells me more homework is needed.
 Index chart 20160422
 Index performance Friday, 4/22/2016
  • Dow Jones    18,003.75  +21.23  (+0.12%)    (chart: blue)
  • Nasdaq           4,906.23  -39.66  (-0.80%)    (chart: gold)
  • S&P 500          2,091.58   +0.10  (+0.00%)    (chart:  red)
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)     1,158.14   +0.93  (+0.08%) 
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1,146.69  +10.92  (+0.96%)
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1,232.81   +1.79  (+0.15%)
  • CBOE (TNX)           18.88   +0.18  (+0.96%)
  • Volatility(VIX)       13.22   -0.73  (-5.23%)
 I. a. Select stocks of interest, from Friday, 4/22/2016
  • AAPL . 105.68  -0.29  (-0.27%)
  • C …….  46.97  +0.37  (+0.79%)
  • CHK …..  6.54  +0.35  (+5.65%)
  • GE ……  30.75  -0.23  (-0.74%)
  • JCP ……   9.53  -0.02  (-0.21%)
  • MPC …  41.47  +0.74  (+1.83%)
  • MU ….  10.66  +0.01  (+0.09%)
  • VRNG ..   1.72  -0.15  (-8.02%)
  • VZ ……  50.55  +0.52  (+1.04%)
 I. b. Sector summary from Friday, 4/22/2016
Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)
  • Energy ………………………………. +1.20%
  • Financials …………………………… +0.81% 
  • Utilities ……………………………… +0.75%  
  • Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods ………. +0.69%
  • Telecommunications Srvcs ……… +0.36%    
  • Industrials ………………………….. +0.26%  
  • Healthcare ………………………….. +0.22%    
  • Cyclical Cons. Goods ……………… +0.07%  
  • Basic Materials …………………….. +0.04% 
  • Technology ………………….. -1.51% 
 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Friday, 4/22/2016
  II. a.  USA  Bonds
  • 3 Month  0.21%  +0.01 (5.00%)
  • 6 Month  0.34%  +0.01 (3.03%)
  •  2 Year  0.81%  0.00 (0.00%)
  •  5 Year  1.36%  +0.01 (0.74%)
  • 10 Year  1.89%  +0.01 (0.53%)
  • 30 Year  2.71%  +0.02 (0.74%)

II. b.   US Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

For both Bulls and Bears:

current XLE quote (Reuters) and more

Related previous XLE analysis:

SELECT SECTOR SPDR ENERGY FUND (XLE) (d-w-m) (p2)

  • –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
 III.  Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 4/25/2016
  Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  See Section V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015) to track changes in this info.  See the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) calculations added to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
   Please Note: ALL projections are for reference only as they can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
  • –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
Closed 4/22 up  @  18,003.75  +21.23  (+0.12%) (-2.1 pts below PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   17980.16
  • Support (s1)  17933.48       Support (s2)   17863.20
  • Resistance (r1)   18050.44   Resistance (r2)   18097.12
  • Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    17244.92       (uptrend  3/16)
  • 52 week performance  -0.30%  YTD performance  +3.32%
( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
    Closed 4/22 down  @  4,906.23  -39.66  (-0.80%)(above 4/25 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  4899.97
  •   Support (s1)   4878.28      Support (s2)  4850.33
  •   Resistance (r1)  4927.92    Resistance (r2)  4949.61
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  4740.44          (uptrend  3/21)
  •   52 week performance  -3.65%   YTD performance -2.02%
( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
Closed 4/22 up  @  2,091.58   +0.10  (+0.00%)  (above 4/25 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  2089.03
  •   Support (s1)  2083.75        Support (s2)  2075.91
  •   Resistance (r1)  2096.87     Resistance (r2)  2102.15
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  2012.68         (uptrend  3/16)
  •   52 week performance  -1.23%  YTD performance  +2.33%
( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI) (ETF: IWD)
Closed 4/22 up  @  1,158.14   +0.93  (+0.08%)  (above 4/25 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1156.68
  •   Support (s1)  1153.90      Support (s2)  1149.66
  •   Resistance (r1)  1160.92   Resistance (r2)  1163.70
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1111.57          (uptrend  3/16)
  •   52 week performance  -1.96%  YTD performance  +2.32%
( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
Closed 4/22 up  @  1,146.69  +10.92  (+0.96%)  (above 4/25 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  1143.20
  •   Support (s1)   1139.00      Support (s2)   1131.30
  •   Resistance (r1)  1150.90    Resistance (r2)  1155.10
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1077.37          (uptrend  3/18)
  •   52 week performance  -9.53%   YTD performance   +0.95%
( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA)
Closed 4/22 up   @  1,232.81   +1.79  (+0.15%)  (above 4/25 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1231.10
  •   Support (s1)   1228.29     Support (s2)  1223.78
  •   Resistance (r1)  1235.61   Resistance (r2)  1238.42
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1178.18          (uptrend  3/16)
  •   52 week performance   -2.23%    YTD performance  +2.21%
( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
Closed 4/22 up  @   18.88   +0.18  (+0.96%)  (above 4/25 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    18.84
  •   Support (s1)    18.72      Support (s2)  18.55
  •   Resistance (r1)  19.01     Resistance (r2)  19.13
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  18.13          (uptrend  4/21)
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  21.03
  •   :: Close (75 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  (-2.154) (-10.240%)
  •   :: 52 week performance  -1.51%   YTD performance -16.79%
( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
Closed 4/22 down   @  13.22   -0.73  (-5.23%) (below 4/25  PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    13.52
  •   Support (s1)    12.85      Support (s2)   12.48
  •   Resistance (r1)  13.89     Resistance (r2)  14.56
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  16.55
  •   :: 52 week performance   +0.76%   YTD performance  -27.40%
  •     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
 IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Monday, 4/25/2016
  • Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
  •   Dow Jones …. 18073.78  …  17956.82
  •   Nasdaq……..  4938.77  …   4889.13
  •   S&P 500 ……  2099.51  …   2086.39
  •   Russell 1000 .  1162.31  …   1155.29
  •   Russell 2000 .  1153.00  …   1141.10
  •   Russell 3000 .  1237.02  …   1229.70
  •   CBOE TNX ……   19.07  …     18.78
  •   Volatility …    13.71  …     12.67
 V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/15)
  • Dow Jones ..  18351.36 ..  15370.33 .. (17425.03)  n/c
  • Nasdaq …..   5231.94 ..   4209.76 ..  (5007.41)  n/c
  • S&P 500 ….   2134.72 ..   1810.10 ..  (2043.94)  n/c
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   1191.59 ..    995.55 ..  (1069.65)  n/c
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1296.00 ..    943.10 ..  (1135.89)  n/c
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1275.89 ..   1056.45 ..  (1206.10)  n/c
  • CBOE (TNX) ….. 24.89 …    15.67  ..   (22.69)  n/c
  • Volatility(VIX)  53.29 …    10.88  ..   (18.21)  n/c
  •    —     —     —     —     —     —
  •     n/c* = no change
  The two tables below are projections for the respective Bullish, or Bearish Open (Table VI.) and the days’ Close (Table VII.) of regular hours trading.  Based on the E-minis futures trading, and the Friday Close versus the Pivot Points (PP) for Monday, the Indices are poised to open down.  Here the task will be to watch the Indices against both their projected lows (Table IV. above) and the Pivot Point for Monday (Table VII. below) for a potential rally, individually and collectively,  into the close.
      —  —  —

 VI.  Index Pivot Point Performance from Friday, 4/22/2016

  • Index,  4/22 close, :: 4/22 PP, Pts_abv/blw, %_abv/blw
  •   Dow Jones …. 18003.75,  18017.90,  (-14.15) (-0.079%)
  •   Nasdaq……..  4906.23,   4948.58,  (-42.35) (-0.856%)
  •   S&P 500 ……  2091.58,   2094.59,  (-3.013) (-0.144%)
  •   Russell 1000 .  1158.14,   1159.01,  (-0.867) (-0.075%)
  •   Russell 2000 .  1146.69,   1137.92,  (+8.773) (+0.814%)
  •   Russell 3000 .  1232.81,   1232.91,  (-0.097) (-0.008%)
  •   CBOE TNX ……   18.88, ..  18.73,  (+0.153) (+0.814%)
  •   Volatility …    13.22, ..  13.75,  (-0.530) (-3.920%)
  • Notes: PP = Pivot Point,  Pts_abv/blw = Points above/below
 VII.  Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets Outlook for Monday, 4/25/2016
  • Index,  4/22 close, :: 4/25 PP, Pts_abv/blw, %_abv/blw PP
  •   Dow Jones …. 18003.75,  17980.16,  abv,  (+23.59),  (+0.131%)
  •   Nasdaq……..  4906.23,   4899.97,  abv,  ( +6.26),          
  •   S&P 500 ……  2091.58,   2089.03,  abv,  ( +2.55),       
  •   Russell 1000 .  1158.14,   1156.68,  abv,  ( +1.46),          
  •   Russell 2000 .  1146.69,   1143.20,  abv,  ( +3.49),
  •   Russell 3000 .  1232.81,   1231.10,  abv,  ( +1.71),
  •   CBOE TNX ……   18.88, ..  18.84,  abv,  ( +0.04),
  •   Volatility …    13.22, ..  13.52,  blw,  (-0.300),   
  •          
  • Notes: PP = Pivot Point,  Pts_abv/blw = Close Points above/below PP
——  Monday, 4/25/2016 thru Friday 4/29/2016  ——-

 

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Hope the above Index Support and Resistance calculations for Monday, 4/25/2016
help your investing and trading planning today …
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