Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 5/2/2016

 

  Below you will find the Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 5/2/2016 as calculated from the changes in Index points through Friday, 4/29/2016’s close.
  When it comes down to stock markets, domestic and international, Index, Sector, Industry, sub-industry, Company, commodity, bonds, interest, et cetera, we’re all working, presumably, from the same reported numbers.  In doing your own homework, if you wanted to, you should be able to REPLICATE the work I present here.  Yes, it’s a lot of WORK, and often a headache to boot, but that’s your guarantee I am not “fudging” the numbers, or the outcome, to suit my opinions, or my biases, on what the outcome should be instead of the outcome being what the outcome is … PROs/CONs, Bull or Bear,  the good, the bad, … and the ugly.
   Which brings us to:
  Five major global markets influences that need to be on everyone’s “need to pay attention to” list.     
  •  First, China and its growth, or lack thereof.  Here, what China CENSORSHIP allows public companies to disclose under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) or even International Accounting Standards (IAS), or “for reasons of National Security” China requires public companies to withhold critical information, without disclosing, even if not what information is missing, but merely that information “is being withheld” … makes investing, and even day trading,  in China extremely RISKY. 
  •  Second, Crude oil, vis a vis, OPEC’s publically stated intentions, as well as what the International Energy Agency (IEA) [ http://www.iea.org/ ], and the US EIA (see links below) report and “project.”  Keep in mind, as in January, Indonesia, an OPEC member, a net importer of crude, didn’t report its production numbers.  SOOOO, when estimates, or projections (which can and do skew reality) get substituted for “unknowns”, and that isn’t STATED in public postings by analysts, reporters, or article/blog authors,  the analysis could be WRONG, or misunderstood causing people not doing their own homework, to make flawed trading and investing decisions.
  •  Third, is the Central Banks outlook, individually and collectively, for their respective perspective on jobs, growth of their economies, and inflation and interest rate changes. The global markets are addicted, like drug addicts, to Central Banks Quantitative Easing (QE) and not unlike tempermental 2 year olds, will probabably throw a temper tantrum when they don’t get QE they think they deserve … sending the markets lower.
  •  Fourth, watch the Foreign Exchange (FX) strength or weakness in the currencies of Central Banks that are employing QE.  Central Banks reducing interest rates to spur jobs, and/or economic growth within their countries, … indirectly, should also see their currencies weakening.  If the currencies aren’t weakening, or worse for the respective Central Bank, the currency is strengthening, HOMEWORK is needed to determine whether the Central bank policy is flawed … or if external forces are working to undermine the Central Bank’s efforts …
  •  Fifth, is HOMEWORK, if you aren’t doing your own HOMEWORK, which I strongly suggest,  look for disclosures, and/or disclaimers, regarding substitutions of estimates or projections for “input data” … anything that might distort the, outcome or results of reports, articles, blogs, and comments on analysis that includes “data substitutions.”   It’s YOUR money, my money, our money … we deserve the TRUTH on raw data substitutions.
 Thursday, Mr. Carl Icahn, in a CNBC phone call, informed listeners, he had sold his entire stake in Apple Inc. (AAPL), citing the risk of China’s influence on Apple Inc.’s stock.  The remainder of Thursday’s trading saw Mr. Icahn’s Apple/China negative sentiment impact of the call on Apple’s price per share (pps), one of the DJIA stocks,  and the market indices continued to drop Friday.  However, by Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was only off -57.12 points, or -0.32 percent, at 17,773.64, having declined -179 points at the DJIA low of the session.  Friday, Apple Inc. (AAPL), after hitting an intraday low of $92.51, closed at $93.74, down only $1.09, or -1.15%.
   In regards solely to China, both Mr. Icahn and I agree on many points.  In regards to China and Apple Inc.  … I am sorry Mr. Icahn, I respectfully disagree, as I, IMHO, believe China has too much to lose by undermining Apple Inc. (AAPL) sales or services in China.  Plus, China CENSORSHIP laws rules, regulations, mean communications going to, or from an iPhone, or other Apple Inc. gadget, will be Chinese censor “filtered” for compliance, or non-compliance, therefore, China no doubt, already KNOWS the bulk of what is on every gadget and server in China … whether it was built by Apple Inc., or not.
Index chart 20160429
Index performance Friday, 4/29/2016
  • Dow Jones    17,773.64  -57.12  (-0.32%)    (chart: blue)
  • Nasdaq        4,775.36  -29.93  (-0.62%)    (chart: gold)
  • S&P 500       2,065.30  -10.51  (-0.51%)    (chart:  red)
  • ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)  1,143.76   -5.82  (-0.51%)
  • Rus 2k (RUT)  1,130.84   -9.55  (-0.84%)
  • Rus 3k (RUA)  1,217.37   -6.50  (-0.53%)
  • CBOE (TNX)       18.19   -0.19  (-1.03%)
  • Volatility(VIX)  15.70   +0.48  (+3.15%)
I. a. Select stocks of interest, from Friday, 4/29/2016
  • AAPL ..  93.74  -1.09 (-1.15%)
  • AMZN  659.59 Up 57.59 (+9.57%)    After Hours : 660.60 Up 1.01 (0.15%)
  • C ……     46.28 Down 0.45 (-0.96%)    0.05 Dividend 4/28/2016
  • CHK  ….   6.87 Up 0.09 (+1.33%)      After Hours :   6.83 Down 0.04 (0.58%)
  • FB …..   117.58 Up 0.85 (+0.73%)     After Hours : 117.40 Down 0.18 (0.15%)
  • GE …..    30.75 Down 0.15 (-0.49%)  After Hours :  30.70 Down 0.05 (0.16%)
  • JCP ……    9.28 Down 0.38 (-3.93%)  After Hours :   9.31 Up 0.03 (0.32%)
  • MPC …   39.08 Down 1.90 (-4.64%)  After Hours : 39.29 Up 0.21 (0.54%)
  • MU ….    10.75 Down 0.87 (-7.49%)
  • VRNG  .    1.89 Down 0.06 (-3.08%) 
  • VZ …..    50.94 Down 0.08 (-0.16%)  After Hours : 51.05 Up 0.11 (0.22%)
 I. b. Sector summary from Friday, 4/29/2016
Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)
  • Utilities …………………………… +0.58% 
  • Basic Materials ………………….. +0.51% 
  • Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods …….. +0.33% 
  • Energy …………………………. -0.06% 
  • Technology ……………………. -0.16% 
  • Telecommunications Srvcs … -0.19%    
  • Industrials …………………….. -0.58% 
  • Financials ……………………… -0.58%    
  • Cyclical Cons. Goods …………. -0.71% 
  • Healthcare ………………….. -1.44% 

 

II. b.   US Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

For both Bulls and Bears:

current XLE quote (Reuters) and more

Related previous XLE analysis:

SELECT SECTOR SPDR ENERGY FUND (XLE) (d-w-m) (p2)

  • –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
 III.  Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 5/2/2016
 Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  See Section V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015) to track changes in this info.  See the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) calculations added to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
:: If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
:: If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
:: Please Note: ALL projections are for reference only as they can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
Closed 4/29 down  @  17,773.64  -57.12  (-0.32%)
:: Closed   (below 4/29 PP)  (above 5/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   17746.82
  •   Support (s1)  17678.80       Support (s2)   17583.97
  •   Resistance (r1)   17841.65   Resistance (r2)   17909.67
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    17423.24       (uptrend  3/16)
  •   52 week performance  -0.37%  YTD performance  +2.00%
( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
Closed 4/29 down  @   4,775.36  -29.93  (-0.62%)
:: Closed   (below 4/29 PP (above 5/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  4774.70
  •   Support (s1)   4741.50      Support (s2)  4707.65
  •   Resistance (r1)  4808.55    Resistance (r2)  4841.75
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  4783.72          (uptrend  3/21)
  •   52 week performance  -4.60%   YTD performance  -4.63%
( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
Closed 4/29 down  @  2,065.30  -10.51  (-0.51%)
:: Closed   (below 4/29 PP)  (above 5/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  2063.81
  •   Support (s1)  2053.77        Support (s2)  2042.24
  •   Resistance (r1)  2075.34     Resistance (r2)  2085.38
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  2032.31         (uptrend  3/16)
  •   52 week performance  -2.04%  YTD performance  +1.05%
( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI) (ETF: IWD)
Closed 4/29 down  @  1,143.76   -5.82  (-0.51%)
:: Closed   (below 4/29 PP)  (above 5/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1143.11
  •   Support (s1)  1137.10      Support (s2)  1130.43
  •   Resistance (r1)  1149.78   Resistance (r2)  1155.79
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1123.09          (uptrend  3/16)
  •   52 week performance  -1.74%  YTD performance  +1.05%
( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
Closed 4/29 down  @  1,130.84   -9.55  (-0.84%)
:: Closed   (below 4/29 PP) (below 5/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  1131.74
  •   Support (s1)   1123.36      Support (s2)   1115.89
  •   Resistance (r1)  1139.21    Resistance (r2)  1147.59
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1092.91          (uptrend  3/18)
  •   52 week performance  -7.92%   YTD performance   -0.44%
( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA)
Closed 4/29 down   @  1,217.37   -6.50  (-0.53%)
:: Closed   (below 4/29 PP)  (above 5/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1216.79
  •   Support (s1)   1210.23     Support (s2)  1203.08
  •   Resistance (r1)  1223.94   Resistance (r2)  1230.50
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1191.83          (uptrend  3/16)
  •   52 week performance   -3.48%    YTD performance  +0.93%
( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
Closed 4/29 down  @   18.19   -0.19  (-1.03%)
:: Closed   (below 4/29 PP) (below 5/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    18.37
  •   Support (s1)    18.01      Support (s2)  17.82
  •   Resistance (r1)  18.56     Resistance (r2)  18.92
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  18.28          (uptrend  4/21)
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  20.92
  •   :: Close (80 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  (-2.726) (-13.035%)
  •   :: 52 week performance  -14.08%   YTD performance -19.83%
( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
Closed 4/29 up   @  15.70   +0.48  (+3.15%)
:: Closed (above 4/29 PP)  (below 5/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    15.90
  •   Support (s1)    14.71      Support (s2)   13.72
  •   Resistance (r1)  16.89     Resistance (r2)  18.08
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  15.70          (closed  @sma)
  •   :: 52 week performance   +22.18%   YTD performance  -13.78%
  •     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
 IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Monday, 5/2/2016
  • Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
  •   Dow Jones …. 17794.24  …  17631.39
  •   Nasdaq……..  4791.63  …   4724.58
  •   S&P 500 ……  2069.58  …   2048.01
  •   Russell 1000 .  1146.45  …   1133.77
  •   Russell 2000 .  1135.48  …   1119.63
  •   Russell 3000 .  1220.37  …   1206.66
  •   CBOE TNX ……   18.47  …     17.92
  •   Volatility …    17.49  …     15.31
 V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/15)
  • Dow Jones ..  18351.36 ..  15370.33 .. (17425.03)  n/c
  • Nasdaq …..   5231.94 ..   4209.76 ..  (5007.41)  n/c
  • S&P 500 ….   2134.72 ..   1810.10 ..  (2043.94)  n/c
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   1191.59 ..    995.55 ..  (1069.65)  n/c
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1296.00 ..    943.10 ..  (1135.89)  n/c
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1275.89 ..   1056.45 ..  (1206.10)  n/c
  • CBOE (TNX) ….. 24.89 …    15.67  ..   (22.69)  n/c
  • Volatility(VIX)  53.29 …    10.88  ..   (18.21)  n/c
  •    —     —     —     —     —     —
  •     n/c* = no change
——  Monday, 5/2/2016 thru Friday 5/6/2016  ——-

 

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Hope the above Index Support and Resistance calculations for Monday, 5/2/2016
help your investing and trading planning today …

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3 thoughts on “Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 5/2/2016

  1. Recap: Monday, 5/2/2016 How did we do ?

    First, the DJIA closed Friday 4/29 above the Pivot Point (PP) for 5/2 and closed up Monday 5/2/2016.

    Index performance Monday, 5/2/2016

    Dow Jones 17,891.16 +117.52 (+0.66%) (chart: blue)
    Nasdaq 4,817.59 +42.24 (+0.88%) (chart: gold)
    S&P 500 2,081.43 +16.13 (+0.78%) (chart: red)
    ——————————————-
    Rus 1k (RUI) 1,152.66 +8.90 (+0.78%)
    Rus 2k (RUT) 1,140.92 +10.08 (+0.89%)
    Rus 3k (RUA) 1,226.94 +9.58 (+0.79%)
    CBOE (TNX) 18.65 +0.46 (+2.53%)
    Volatility(VIX) 14.68 -1.02 (-6.50%)

    Like

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