Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 5/23/2016

 

 Below you will find the Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 5/23/2016 as calculated from the changes in Index points through Friday, 5/20/2016’s close.
We escaped May’s third Friday of the month options expiration and closed to the upside.  We have six trading days left in May as Monday, 5/30/2016 is Memorial Day holiday and the markets will be closed.   Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are still concerned about China’s economy, China’s growth, or lack thereof, China’s accommodations (QE) and currency vs the US dollar.  The markets are still concerned with the US Fed potentially raising rates an expected 0.25 basis points, ranging from 0.50 to 0.75 percent.  The markets primary concern is that any Fed rate increase will lead to a stronger USA dollar undermining commodities and USA companies’ foreign sales, revenues, earnings, in combination with currency translation losses.  The markets are still overly concerned with the price of crude vs the global and USA on hand crude supplies; but,  Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are at least paying attention to crude production supply disruptions … while still not questioning production numbers that can not be confirmed with second sources.   See related crude article:

Oil prices jump as Goldman Sachs says market flips into deficit
SINGAPORE  |  By Henning Gloystein

 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0Y703M

 “Supply disruptions around the world of as much as 3.75 million barrels per day (bpd) … “

  To get a sense of what Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets might be thinking coming out of  third Friday of the month options/futures expiry, it is always good practice to review the week and the days leading into expiry, as well as the week and the days after.

  Day before/Day after Expiry Related blogs:

•    Index Support and Resistance for Thursday, 5/19/2016
•   Index Support and Resistance for Friday, 5/20/2016

 It is not too early to start thinking, and planning, for June’s third Friday of the month 6/17/2016 Quadruple Witching options and futures expiration.  Again, as to the Fed raising rates, I suggest all the Central Banks rethink their QE plans and follow the Fed in raising rates by the same amount …. which should neutralize the stronger USA dollar currency issue.  I also suggest that the global growth stagnation we are seeing is the retirees and savers, are getting nothing for putting their monies in the bank.  The consumer is reluctant to spend.  We need global fiscal management and responsibility that benefits and accommodates the consumer, a consumer saver that sees their monies growing, may feel comfortable in spending some of that growing money.  So … raising rates at a pace that inspires spending will lead to higher sales, higher revenues, higher earnings which will eventually benefit Mr. and Ms. Fickle Markets too.

 

 Index performance Friday, 5/20/2016

 

• Dow Jones    17,500.94  +65.54  (+0.38%)    (chart: blue)
• Nasdaq        4,769.56  +57.02  (+1.21%)    (chart: gold)
• S&P 500       2,052.32  +12.28  (+0.60%)    (chart:  red)
•   ——————————————-
• Rus 1k (RUI)  1,135.84   +7.64  (+0.68%)
• Rus 2k (RUT)  1,112.28  +17.50  (+1.60%)
• Rus 3k (RUA)  1,208.08   +8.93  (+0.74%)
• CBOE (TNX)       18.49   +0.04  (+0.22%)
• Volatility(VIX)  15.20   -1.13  (-6.92%)

 I. a. Select stocks of interest, from Friday, 5/20/2016

• AAPL … 95.22  +1.02 (+1.08%)
• C …… 44.89  -0.17 (-0.38%)
• CHK ….  3.71  -0.14 (-3.76%)
• FH …..  1.78  +0.06 (+3.49%)
• GE ….. 29.55  +0.19 (+0.65%)
• JCP ….  7.74  +0.14 (+1.84%)
• MPC …. 36.63  +0.53 (+1.47%)
• MU ….. 10.80  +0.73 (+7.25%)
• VZ ….. 49.65  +0.02 (+0.04%)

 I. b. Sector summary from Friday, 5/20/2016

Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)

• Technology …………………….. +1.36%  
• Healthcare ……………………… +1.03% 
• Cyclical Cons. Goods …………. +0.79%  
• Financials ………………………. +0.75%
• Industrials ……………………… +0.69%  
• Telecommunications Srvcs …. +0.69% 
• Energy …………………………… +0.50%  
• Utilities ………………………….. +0.43%
• Basic Materials ………………… +0.04% 
• Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods ….. +0.02% 

 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Friday, 5/20/2016

  II. a.  USA  Bonds

• 3 Month  0.30%  +0.01 (+3.45%)
• 6 Month  0.43%  +0.00 (+0.00%)
•  2 Year  0.88%  -0.01 (-1.12%)
•  5 Year  1.36%  -0.02 (-1.45%)
• 10 Year  1.84%  -0.02 (-1.08%)
• 30 Year  2.63%  -0.03 (-1.13%)

  II. b.  Currencies

• AUD/USD .. 0.7218  0.0000 (0.00%)
• EUR/USD .. 1.1222  0.0000 (0.00%)
• GBP/USD .. 1.4509  0.0000 (0.00%)
•       ———————
• USD/CAD .. 1.3112  0.0000 (0.00%)
• USD/CNY .. 6.5460  0.0000 (0.00%)
• USD/HKD .. 7.7685  0.0000 (0.00%)
• USD/JPY  110.1400  0.0000 (0.00%)

II. c.  US Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

• Petroleum & Other Liquids

• Weekly Supply Estimates
• This Week in Petroleum
• Crude oil storage and capacity have increased in Cushing, Oklahoma and U.S. Gulf Coast

For both Bulls and Bears:

current XLE quote (Reuters) and more

Related previous XLE analysis:

• SELECT SECTOR SPDR ENERGY FUND (XLE) (d-w-m) (p2)
• SELECT SECTOR SPDR ENERGY FUND (XLE) d/w/m
• • –      –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

 III.  Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 5/23/2016

 Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  See Section V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015) to track changes in this info.  See the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) calculations added to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
:: If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
:: If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
:: Please Note: ALL projections are for reference only as they can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.

     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
Closed 5/20 up  @  17,500.94  +65.54  (+0.38%)
:: Closed   (above 5/20 PP)  (below 5/23 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)   17503.34
•   Support (s1)  17434.92       Support (s2)   17368.91
•   Resistance (r1)   17569.35   Resistance (r2)   17637.77
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    17692.59       (uptrend  3/16)
•   52 week performance  -4.29%  YTD performance  +0.44%

( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
Closed 5/20 up  @    4,769.56  +57.02  (+1.21%)
:: Closed   (above 5/20 PP)  (above 5/23 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)  4760.09
•   Support (s1)   4738.47      Support (s2) 4707.39
•   Resistance (r1)  4791.17    Resistance (r2)  4812.79
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  4821.42          (uptrend  3/21)
•   52 week performance  -6.28%   YTD performance  -4.75%

( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
Closed 5/20 up  @   2,052.32  +12.28  (+0.60%)
:: Closed   (above 5/20 PP)  (above 5/23 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)  2050.85
•   Support (s1)  2043.35        Support (s2)  2034.38
•   Resistance (r1)  2059.82     Resistance (r2)  2067.32
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  2060.54         (uptrend  3/16)
•   52 week performance  -3.47%  YTD performance  +0.41%

( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI) (ETF: IWD)
Closed 5/20 up  @  1,135.84   +7.64  (+0.68%)
:: Closed   (above 5/20 PP)  (above 5/23 PP)

• :: Pivot point (PP)   1134.36
•   Support (s1)  1129.93      Support (s2)  1124.02
•   Resistance (r1)  1140.27   Resistance (r2)  1144.70
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1139.52          (uptrend  3/16)
•   52 week performance  -4.52%  YTD performance  +0.35%

( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
Closed 5/20 up  @  1,112.28  +17.50  (+1.60%)
:: Closed   (above 5/20 PP)  (above 5/23 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)  1106.59
•   Support (s1)   1100.85      Support (s2)   1089.43
•   Resistance (r1)  1118.01    Resistance (r2)  1123.75
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1111.90          (uptrend  3/18)
•   52 week performance  -11.18%   YTD performance   -2.08%

( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA)
Closed 5/20 up   @  1,208.08   +8.93  (+0.74%)
:: Closed   (above 5/20 PP)  (above 5/23 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)   1206.13
•   Support (s1)   1201.37     Support (s2)  1194.67
•   Resistance (r1)  1212.83   Resistance (r2)  1217.59
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1210.65          (uptrend  3/16)
•   52 week performance   -3.89%    YTD performance  +0.16%

( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
Closed 5/20 up  @   18.49   +0.04  (+0.22%)
:: Closed   (below 5/20 PP)  (below 5/23 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)    18.51
•   Support (s1)    18.35      Support (s2)  18.22
•   Resistance (r1)  18.64     Resistance (r2)  18.80
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  18.22          (basing  5/18)
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  20.53
•   :: Close (95 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  (-2.043) (-9.951%)
•   :: 52 week performance  -16.52%   YTD performance -18.51%

( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
Closed 5/20 down   @  15.20   -1.13  (-6.92%)
:: Closed  (below 5/20 PP)  (below 5/23 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)    15.54
•   Support (s1)    14.77      Support (s2)   14.35
•   Resistance (r1)  15.96     Resistance (r2)  16.73
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  14.67         (downtrend)
•   :: 52 week performance   +8.11%   YTD performance  -16.53%
•     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

 IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Monday, 5/23/2016

• Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
•   Dow Jones …. 17603.56  …  17469.13
•   Nasdaq……..  4801.98  …   4749.28
•   S&P 500 ……  2063.57  …   2047.10
•   Russell 1000 .  1142.49  …   1132.15
•   Russell 2000 .  1120.88  …   1103.72
•   Russell 3000 .  1215.21  …   1203.75
•   CBOE TNX ……   18.58  …     18.29
•   Volatility …    15.75  …     14.56

 V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/15)

• Dow Jones ..  18314.89 -*  15370.33 .. (17425.03)  c-*
• Nasdaq …….   5231.94 ..     4209.76 ..  (5007.41)  n/c
• S&P 500 ……   2132.82 -*   1810.10 ..  (2043.94)  c-*
•   ——————————————-
• Rus 1k (RUI)      1191.34 -*    995.55 ..  (1069.65)  c-*
• Rus 2k (RUT)   1296.00 ..    943.10 ..  (1135.89)  n/c
• Rus 3k (RUA)   1275.89 ..   1056.45 ..  (1206.10)  n/c
• CBOE (TNX) ….. 24.89 …    15.67  ..   (22.69)  n/c
• Volatility(VIX)     53.29 …    10.88  ..   (18.21)  n/c
•    —     —     —     —     —     —
•     n/c* = no change  c-* = changed lower 

—–  Monday, 5/23/2016 thru Friday 5/27/2016  ——-

• U. S. government Overseas Assassination 101
• The Cowardly Bombings in Brussels
•  
• Index ETFs for Monday, 3/21/2016
•  
• The S&P500 (.INX, SPX) for April 4-8
• Correction, pullback, or Bear Market? Part 3
•   Correction, pullback, or Bear Market? Part 2
•   Correction, pullback, or Bear Market? Part 1

 

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•  ( xi )  I will be returning and adding more related chart info including links to charts with  daily, weekly, and monthly chart analysis

 

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 (1)  Research and Investing Disclaimer

 (2)  Investing and Trading

    It’s Black Friday for OPEC

•    Chesapeake Energy Corp (NYSE: CHK)
•  

 

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Hope the above Index Support and Resistance calculations for Monday, 5/23/2016  help your investing and trading planning today …