Index Support and Resistance for Thursday, 6/16/2016

 

  Wednesday, Federal Reserve’s J. Yellen press conference:  Clearly the FED wants to show it is committed to raising rates 2x this year .. but the Fed consensus isn’t even sure if it can raise rates even once more.  If you’ve been reading my blogs, then you know there appears to be only one scenario analysis path in raising rates that doesn’t impact and make the US Dollar stronger, undermining USA companies’ foreign sales and revenues .. that being if all the Central Banks raise rates 0.25 basis points at the SAME time … and adopt a wait and see if it works strategy and timetable.   Congress is at fault for NOT helping the FED and the USA economy, taxpayers, citizens, and residents that it is PAID to represent in getting USA companies to bring at least some jobs back to the USA.   Sending jobs and intellectual properties overseas does NOT HELP!
Unlike Tuesday when the indices made a concerted push to rally into the close, the USA Indices seemingly dropped off a cliff in the last half hour.
   Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets, in this week alone, have sent more than one of the Indices below their 50 day simple moving averages (sma50) … see the tables below.

         PROs and CONs

  First the CONs, the markets are looking to unwind their index and stock options and futures before they expire on Quadruple Witching  Friday tomorrow.   Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are looking to get out of the path of next week’s UK  “Brexit” EU vote.
  Second, the PROs, for the rest of us, is Mr.and Ms. Fickle Markets are building huge piles  of cash upon which they’re getting little to nothing in return.   Lots of companies are inexpensive on trailing twelve month (ttm) earnings as well as forward earnings basis.
   In Section III. tables below, you will find the Index Support and Resistance for Thursday, 6/16/2016 as calculated from the changes in Index points through Wednesday, 6/15/2016’s close.

Index chart 20160615
  I.   Index performance Wednesday, 6/15/2016

  • Dow Jones    17,640.17  -34.65  (-0.20%)    (chart: blue)
  • Nasdaq        4,834.93   -8.62  (-0.18%)    (chart: gold)
  • S&P 500       2,071.50   -3.82  (-0.18%)    (chart: red )
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   1,147.13  -1.51 (-0.13%)
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1,149.30  +1.48 (+0.13%)
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1,222.18  -1.37 (-0.11%)
  • CBOE (TNX)        15.96  -0.15 (-0.93%)
  • Volatility(VIX)   20.14  -0.36 (-1.76%)
 I. a. Select stocks and ETFs of interest, from Wednesday, 6/15/2016
  • AAPL …  97.14  -0.32 (-0.33%)   After Hours: 97.05 -0.09 (-0.09%)
  • C ……  42.01  +0.06 (+0.14%)   After Hours: 42.10 +0.09 (+0.21%)
  • CHK ….   4.28  +0.00 (-0.12%)   After Hours:  4.36 +0.08 (+1.87%)
  • FH …..   2.18  +0.19 (+9.55%)   After Hours:  2.25 +0.07 (+3.21%)
  • GE …..  30.59  +0.15 (+0.49%)   After Hours: 30.64 +0.05 (+0.16%)
  • JCP ….   8.35  +0.33 (+4.11%)   After Hours:  8.32 -0.03 (-0.36%)
  • MPC ….  33.20  +0.39 (+1.19%)   After Hours: 33.20 +0.00 (+0.00%)
  • MU …..  12.02  +0.10 (+0.84%)   After Hours: 12.02 +0.00 (+0.00%)
  • VZ …..  52.84  -0.15 (-0.28%)   After Hours: 52.84 +0.00 (+0.00%)
  • GLD …  123.68  +0.91 (+0.74%)   After Hours: 123.68 +0.00 (+0.00%)
  • SLV ….  16.69  +0.15 (+0.91%)   After Hours:  16.69 +0.00 (+0.00%)
  • IWD …  101.36  -0.10 (-0.10%)
  • IWF ….  99.70  -0.10 (-0.10%)
  • IWM …  114.56  +0.08 (+0.07%)   After Hours: 114.52 -0.04 (-0.03%)
  • IWV …  122.48  -0.08 (-0.07%)
 I. b. Sector summary from Wednesday, 6/15/2016
Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)
  • Basic Materials ………….. +1.32% 
  • Cyclical Cons. Goods ……..  +0.53% 
  • Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods ….  +0.34% 
  • Financials ………………  +0.06%    
  • Industrials ……………..  +0.01% 
  • Telecommunications Srvcs ….  -0.02%    
  • Energy ………………….  -0.03%  
  • Technology ………………  -0.10% 
  • Utilities ……………….  -0.48%
  • Healthcare ………………  -0.51% 

 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Wednesday, 6/15/2016

  II. a.  USA  Bonds
  •  3 Month  0.25%  -0.02 (-7.41%)
  •  6 Month  0.35%  -0.05 (-12.50%)
  •   2 Year  0.66%  -0.06 (-8.33%)
  •   5 Year  1.07%  -0.07 (-6.14%)
  •  10 Year  1.57%  -0.04 (-2.48%)
  •  30 Year  2.41%  -0.02 (-0.82%)
  II. b.  Currencies
  • AUD/USD  0.7389  -0.0023 (-0.31%)
  • EUR/USD  1.1280  +0.0019 (+0.17%)  (Brexit watch)
  • GBP/USD  1.4163  -0.0032 (-0.22%)  (Brexit watch)
  • USD/CAD  1.2927  +0.0016 (+0.12%)
  • USD/CNY  6.5767  -0.0060 (-0.09%)
  • USD/HKD  7.7584  -0.0017 (-0.02%)
  • USD/JPY  104.2150  -1.6290 (-1.54%)
  II. cUS Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

For both Bulls and Bears:

current XLE quote (Reuters) and more

Related previous XLE analysis:

  II. e.    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
 Remaining meetings:   ( FOMC  Calendar & info )
  • July 26-27                  ( IMHO, no rate increase expected )
  • September 20-21*
  • November 1-2
  • December 13-14*
* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Fed Chairperson  Ms. J. Yellen.
–   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

 III.  Index Support and Resistance for Thursday, 6/16/2016

   Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  See Section V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015) to track changes in this info.  See the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) calculations added to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
:: If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
:: If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
:: Please Note: ALL projections are for reference only as they can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
Closed 6/15 down  @  17,640.17  -34.65  (-0.20%)
:: Closed   (below 6/15 PP)  (below 6/16 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   17677.38
  •   Support (s1)  17591.80       Support (s2)   17543.43
  •   Resistance (r1)   17725.75   Resistance (r2)   17811.33
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    17786.69    (above/below sma50)
  •   52 week performance  -1.48%  YTD performance  +1.23%
( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
Closed 6/15 down  @    4,834.93   -8.62  (-0.18%)
:: Closed   (below 6/15 PP)  (below 6/16 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  4844.47
  •   Support (s1)   4820.79      Support (s2)  4806.64
  •   Resistance (r1)  4858.62    Resistance (r2)  4882.30
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  4855.79      (above/below sma50)
  •   52 week performance  -4.54%   YTD performance  -3.44%
( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
Closed 6/15 down  @   2,071.50   -3.82  (-0.18%)
:: Closed   (below 6/15 PP)  (below 6/16 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  2075.65
  •   Support (s1)  2065.65        Support (s2)  2059.80
  •   Resistance (r1)  2081.50     Resistance (r2)  2091.50
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  2077.21      (above/below sma50)
  •   52 week performance  -1.38%  YTD performance  +1.35%
( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI) (ETF: IWD, IWF)
Closed 6/15 down  @  1,147.13  -1.51 (-0.13%)
:: Closed   (below 6/15 PP)  (below 6/16 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1149.41
  •   Support (s1)  1143.93      Support (s2)  1140.72
  •   Resistance (r1)  1152.62   Resistance (r2)  1158.10
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1149.61      (above/below sma50)
  •   52 week performance  -2.07%  YTD performance  +1.35%
( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
Closed 6/15 up  @  1,149.30  +1.48 (+0.13%)
:: Closed   (above 6/15 PP)  (below 6/16 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  1151.78
  •   Support (s1)   1145.61      Support (s2)   1141.91
  •   Resistance (r1)  1155.48    Resistance (r2)  1161.65
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1133.43       (above/below sma50)
  •   52 week performance  -9.47%   YTD performance   +1.18%
( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA) (ETF: IWV)
Closed 6/15 down   @  1,222.18  -1.37 (-0.11%)
:: Closed   (below 6/15 PP)  (below 6/16 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1224.65
  •   Support (s1)   1218.78     Support (s2)  1215.38
  •   Resistance (r1)  1228.05   Resistance (r2)  1233.92
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1222.78       (above/below sma50)
  •   52 week performance   -3.81%    YTD performance  +1.33%
( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
Closed 6/15 down  @   15.96  -0.15 (-0.93%)
:: Closed   (below 6/15 PP)  (below 6/16 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    16.01
  •   Support (s1)    15.72      Support (s2)  15.48
  •   Resistance (r1)  16.25     Resistance (r2)  16.54
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  17.83       (above/below sma50)
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  20.18
  •   :: Close (112 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  (-4.223) pts. or (-20.922%)
  •   :: 52 week performance  -30.79%   YTD performance -29.66%
( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
Closed 6/15 down   @  20.14  -0.36 (-1.76%)
:: Closed  (below 6/15 PP)  (above 6/16 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    19.74
  •   Support (s1)    19.03      Support (s2)   17.92
  •   Resistance (r1)  20.85     Resistance (r2)  21.56
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  14.94       (above/below sma50)
  •   :: 52 week performance   +52.69%   YTD performance  +10.60%
  •     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
 IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Thursday, 6/16/2016
  • Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
  •   Dow Jones …. 17701.57  …  17567.62
  •   Nasdaq……..  4851.55  …   4813.72
  •   S&P 500 ……  2078.58  …   2062.73
  •   Russell 1000 .  1151.02  …   1142.33
  •   Russell 2000 .  1158.57  …   1148.70
  •   Russell 3000 .  1226.35  …   1217.08
  •   CBOE TNX ……   16.13  …     15.60
  •   Volatility …    20.30  …     18.48
 V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/15)
  • Dow Jones ..  18188.81 ..  15370.33 .. (17425.03)  n/c
  • Nasdaq …..   5231.94 ..   4209.76 ..  (5007.41)  n/c
  • S&P 500 ….   2132.82 ..   1810.10 ..  (2043.94)  n/c
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   1189.88 ..    995.55 ..  (1069.65)  n/c
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1296.00 ..    943.10 ..  (1135.89)  n/c
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1275.89 ..   1056.45 ..  (1206.10)  n/c
  • CBOE (TNX) ….. 24.89 …    15.67  ..   (22.69)  n/c
  • Volatility(VIX)  53.29 …    10.88  ..   (18.21)  n/c
  •    —     —     —     —     —     —
  •     n/c* = no change  c-* = changed lower
—–  Monday, 6/13/2016   thru Quadruple Witching Friday 6/17/2016  ——-

Hope the above Index Support and Resistance calculations for Thursday, 6/16/2016  help your investing and trading planning today …

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