Index Support and Resistance for Thursday, 7/7/2016

 

  Reward versus Risk.  The third trading day of July 2016 is now history, facts to be data mined, feeding 20-20 hindsight, as well as foward looking articles and blogs.  In my previous blogs, thanks to my daily homework, I did write that the short term calculations and resulting projections were pointing higher, not lower.   Check it out.  That said, today will no doubt zigzag due to the vagaries of the USA jobs report due out tomorrow.
U.S. stocks rallied back from an opening sell off loss and trended higher Wednesday.  All sectors closed with a gain.  The Basic Materials and Healthcare sectors recovered the most with drug and consumer companies leading the way.  Investors and traders were willing to take a few more risks than yesterday, but appeared to remain cautious.  Global demand for US bonds and precious metals stayed high.  US dividend paying stocks are paying more than bonds, mitigating risk, and every sell off only serves to make those dividends more attractive.
The CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX) closed at 13.67  down  -0.89 points, or  -6.11 percent.  The FED has a target of two percent for USA inflation, but inflation appears to be a victim of too many companies, producing and selling similar items, attempting to cover fixed costs, resulting in surpluses that only serve to hold prices down … or drive them lower.   IMHO, the US Federal Reserve is stuck not raising rates, until Japan, and Germany, et cetera, i.e. the global Central Banks, are also inclined to co-ordinate in raising rates to minimize currency issues.
————————————————
Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, .DJI) rallied back from an opening loss and gained +78.00 points, or +0.44 percent, to 17,918.62.  For this holiday shortened week, the DJIA is down -30.75 points, or -0.2 percent.  Year to date, the DJIA is up +493.59 points, or +2.833% percent.
Wednesday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 (SPX, .INX) Index rallied back from an opening loss and gained +11.18 points, or +0.54 percent, to 2,099.73.  For this holiday shortened week, the S&P 500 is down -3.22 points, or -0.2 percent.  Year to date, the S&P 500 is up +55.79 points, or +2.73 percent.
Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite (NAS, .IXIC) rallied back from an opening loss and gained +36.26 points, or +0.75 percent, to 4,859.16.  For this holiday shortened week, the Nasdaq is down -3.40 points, or -0.1 percent.  Year to date, the Nasdaq is down -148.25 points, or -2.961 percent.
              ————————————————
Below you will find the Index Support and Resistance for Thursday, 7/7/2016 as calculated from the changes in Index points through Wednesday, 7/6/2016’s close.  In the Reward versus Risk game, one other tool, as calculated for myself, I share everyday, see below, is Table IV. Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Thursday, 7/7/2016
                    —————-
Index chart 20160706

 I.   Index performance Wednesday, 7/6/2016

  • Dow Jones    17,918.62  +78.00  (+0.44%)   (chart: blue)
  • Nasdaq        4,859.16  +36.26  (+0.75%)   (chart: gold)
  • S&P 500       2,099.73  +11.18  (+0.54%)   (chart: red )
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   1,161.79  +6.19  (+0.54%)
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1,147.33  +7.88  (+0.69%)
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1,236.47  +6.72  (+0.55%)
  • CBOE (TNX)        13.85  +0.18  (+1.32%)
  • Volatility(VIX)   14.96  -0.62  (-3.98%)
 I. a. Select stocks & ETFs of interest, from Wednesday, 7/6/2016
  • AAPL …  95.53  +0.54 (+0.57%)   After Hours: 95.56 +0.03 (+0.03%)
  • C ……  41.06  +0.28 (+0.69%)   After Hours: 41.05 -0.01 (-0.02%)
  • CHK ….   4.35  +0.05 (+1.16%)   After Hours:  4.37 +0.02 (+0.46%)
  • FH …..   1.80  -0.03 (-1.64%)   After Hours:  1.81 +0.01 (+0.56%)
  • GE …..  31.74  +0.29 (+0.92%)   After Hours: 31.73 -0.01 (-0.03%)
  • JCP ….   8.54  -0.12 (-1.39%)   After Hours:  8.54 +0.00 (+0.00%)
  • MPC ….  36.50  -2.28 (-5.88%)   After Hours: 36.82 +0.32 (+0.88%)
  • MU …..  11.73  -0.18 (-1.51%)   After Hours: 11.78 +0.05 (+0.43%)
  • VZ …..  56.26  +0.29 (+0.53%)   After Hours: 56.15 -0.11 (-0.20%)
  •      select ETFs …
  • DIA …  179.03  +0.82 (+0.46%)   After Hours: 178.96 -0.07 (-0.04%)
  • QQQ …  108.30  +0.88 (+0.82%)   After Hours: 108.22 -0.08 (-0.07%)
  • SPY …  209.77  +1.38 (+0.66%)   After Hours: 209.67 -0.10 (-0.05%)
  • GLD …  130.23  +0.76 (+0.59%)   After Hours: 130.50 +0.27 (+0.21%)
  • SLV ….  19.10  +0.12 (+0.63%)   After Hours:  19.20 +0.10 (+0.52%)
  • IWD …  102.26  +0.59 (+0.58%)   After Hours: 102.24 -0.02 (-0.02%)
  • IWF …  100.50  +0.61 (+0.62%)   After Hours: 100.49 -0.01 (-0.01%)
  • IWM …  113.96  +0.89 (+0.79%)   After Hours: 113.79 -0.17 (-0.15%)
  • IWV …  123.36  +0.71 (+0.58%)   After Hours: 123.35 -0.01 (-0.01%)
 I. b. Sector summary from Wednesday, 7/6/2016
Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)
  • Basic Materials ………….  +1.09%
  • Healthcare ………………  +0.91%
  • Cyclical Cons. Goods ……..  +0.69%
  • Technology ………………  +0.45%
  • Energy ………………….  +0.40%
  • Industrials ……………..  +0.36%
  • Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods ….  +0.27%
  • Financials ………………  +0.06%
  • Utilities ……………….  +0.05%
  • Telecommunications Srvcs ….  +0.05%
 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Wednesday, 7/6/2016
  II. a.  USA  Bonds
  • 3 Month  0.24%  0.00 (0.00%)
  • 6 Month  0.34%  +0.02 (6.25%)
  •  2 Year  0.57%  +0.01 (1.79%)
  •  5 Year  0.95%  +0.02 (2.15%)
  • 10 Year  1.37%  +0.01 (0.74%)
  • 30 Year  2.14%  +0.02 (0.94%)
  II. b.  Currencies
  • AUD/USD … 0.7523  +0.0010 (0.13%)
  • EUR/USD … 1.1104  +0.0006 (0.06%)
  • GBP/USD … 1.2992  +0.0074 (0.58%)
  • USD/CAD … 1.2954  -0.0009 (-0.07%)
  • USD/CNY … 6.6849  -0.0054 (-0.08%)
  • USD/HKD … 7.7582  +0.0000 (+0.00%)
  • USD/JPY   101.0450  -0.1110 (-0.11%)
II. cUS Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

For both Bulls and Bears:

current XLE quote (Reuters) and more

Related previous XLE analysis:

  II. e.    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
 Remaining meetings:   ( FOMC  Calendar & info )
  • July 26-27                     ( IMHO, no rate increase expected )
  • September 20-21*
  • November 1-2
  • December 13-14*
* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Fed Chairperson  Ms. J. Yellen.
  • –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
  • –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
  •      –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

 III.  Index Support and Resistance for Thursday, 7/7/2016

 Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  See Section V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015) to track changes in this info.  See the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) calculations added to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
:: If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
:: If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
:: Please Note: ALL projections are for reference only as they can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
dji-nas-spx %Chng 20160706
Chart #2  (above, daily, %Change)  Index performance DJIA, Nasdaq, & S&P500  (August 2015 thru Wednesday, 7/6/2016)  Note effect of the UK  Brexit vote to exit EU 6/23/2016- 6/24/2016
              ==============================================
( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
Closed 7/6 up  @  17,918.62  +78.00  (+0.44%)
:: Closed   (above 7/6 PP)  (above 7/7 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   17852.99
  •   Support (s1)   17779.08      Support (s2)   17639.53
  •   Resistance (r1)   17992.54   Resistance (r2)   18066.45
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    17749.81       (downtrend)
  •   52 week performance  +0.80%  YTD performance  +2.83%
( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
Closed 7/6 up  @    4,859.16  +36.26  (+0.75%)
:: Closed   (above 7/6 PP)  (above 7/7 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  4835.41
  •   Support (s1)   4809.76      Support (s2)  4760.37
  •   Resistance (r1)  4884.80    Resistance (r2)  4910.45
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  4825.34          (downtrend)
  •   52 week performance  -1.03%   YTD performance  -2.96%
spx-vix %Chng 20160706
Chart #3 (above, daily, %change)  June 2016 was multi-event stressful, especially the last week of June 2016 the  S&P 500 pulled back and the Volatility S&P500  Index went vertical …
           ————————————–
( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
Closed 7/6 up  @   2,099.73  +11.18  (+0.54%)
:: Closed   (above 7/6 PP)  (above 7/7 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  2091.49
  •   Support (s1)  2082.26        Support (s2)  2064.79
  •   Resistance (r1)  2108.96     Resistance (r2)  2118.19
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  2076.83         (uptick 7/6)
  •   52 week performance  +2.59%  YTD performance  +2.73%
( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI) (ETF: IWD)
Closed   7/6 up  @  1,161.79  +6.19  (+0.54%)
:: Closed   (above 7/6 PP)  (above 7/7 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1157.27
  •   Support (s1)  1152.25      Support (s2)  1142.70
  •   Resistance (r1)  1166.82   Resistance (r2)  1171.84
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1149.32          (uptrend  3/16)
  •   52 week performance  -0.05%  YTD performance  +2.64%
( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
Closed 7/6 up  @  1,147.33  +7.88  (+0.69%)
:: Closed   (above 7/6 PP)  (above 7/7 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  1142.32
  •   Support (s1)   1136.72      Support (s2)   1126.12
  •   Resistance (r1)  1152.92    Resistance (r2)  1158.52
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1138.36         (uptick 7/6)
  •   52 week performance  -8.07%   YTD performance   +1.01%
( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA)
Closed 7/6 up   @  1,236.47  +6.72  (+0.55%)
:: Closed   (above 7/6 PP)  (above 7/7 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1231.70
  •   Support (s1)   1226.41     Support (s2)  1216.35
  •   Resistance (r1)  1241.76   Resistance (r2)  1247.05
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1223.41          (downtick 7/6)
  •   52 week performance   +0.73%    YTD performance  +2.52%
( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
Closed 7/6 up  @   13.85  +0.18  (+1.32%)
:: Closed   (above 7/6 PP)  (above 7/7 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    13.72
  •   Support (s1)    13.49      Support (s2)  13.13
  •   Resistance (r1)  14.08     Resistance (r2)  14.31
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  17.15          (downtrend)
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  19.72          (downtrend)
  •   :: Close (126 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  (-5.872) pts. or (-29.775%)
  •   :: 52 week performance  -37.22%   YTD performance  -38.96%
( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
Closed 7/6 down   @  14.96  -0.62  (-3.98%)
:: Closed  (below 7/6 PP)  (below 7/7 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    15.65
  •   Support (s1)    14.27      Support (s2)   13.57
  •   Resistance (r1)  16.35     Resistance (r2)  17.73
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  16.18         (uptrend)
  •   :: 52 week performance   -25.09%   YTD performance  -17.85%
  •     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

 IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Thursday, 7/7/2016

  • Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
  •   Dow Jones …. 18029.50  …  17816.04
  •   Nasdaq……..  4897.63  …   4822.59
  •   S&P 500 ……  2113.58  …   2086.88
  •   Russell 1000 .  1169.33  …   1154.76
  •   Russell 2000 .  1155.72  …   1139.52
  •   Russell 3000 .  1244.41  …   1229.06
  •   CBOE TNX ……   14.20  …     13.61
  •   Volatility …    16.00  …     13.92

 V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/15)

  • Dow Jones ..  18167.63 ..  15370.33 .. (17425.03)  n/c
  • Nasdaq …..   5231.94 ..   4209.76 ..  (5007.41)  n/c
  • S&P 500 ….   2132.82 ..   1810.10 ..  (2043.94)  n/c
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   1188.48 ..    995.55 ..  (1069.65)  n/c
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1275.90 ..    943.10 ..  (1135.89)  n/c
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1271.96 ..   1056.45 ..  (1206.10)  n/c
  • CBOE (TNX) ….. 24.61 …    13.36 c-.   (22.69)  c-*
  • Volatility(VIX)  53.29 …    10.88 …   (18.21)  n/c
  •    —     —     —     —     —     —
  •     n/c* = no change  c-* = changed lower
—–  Monday, 7/4/2016   thru    Friday 7/8/2016  ——-

 

( x)   All Links can be opened in a new tab or new window …

  •  ( xi )  I will be returning and adding more related chart info including links to charts with  daily, weekly, and monthly (d-w-m) chart analysis

 

Please read:

 (1)  Research and Investing Disclaimer

 (2)  Investing and Trading

    It’s Black Friday for OPEC

 

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Hope the above Index Support and Resistance calculations for Thursday, 7/7/2016  help your investing and trading planning today …

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