Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 7/11/2016

 

     U.S. stocks and indices rallied higher Friday and finished just shy of August 2015 and 52 week highs as investors and traders, smiles and grins, “liked” a strong June jobs report.   Of course, after the abysmal May jobs report, this is only the first positive report.  Keep in mind these reports get “corrected” a lot.  So, we’ll need a couple more jobs reports to show the US economy is back on track, healthy and growing …
While the rest of the world still struggles, we owe thanks to TARP, TALF, and the US. Federal Reserve for taking the global markets meltdown head on and keeping the US recession from turning into a depression.
    —–  UPDATED added info  ——————————————–
  Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, .DJI) gained +250.86 points, or +1.4 percent, to 18,146.74.  For the week, the DJIA gained +197.37 points, or +1.1 percent.  Year to date, the DJIA is up +721.71 points, or +4.1 percent.  The DJIA is only -20.89 points down from its 52 week high of 18167.63, or -0.115 percent.  The DJIA is up +2776.41 points from its 52 week low of 15370.33, or +18.063 percent.
  Friday, the S&P 500 Index (SPX, .INX) gained +32 points, or +1.5 percent, to 2,129.90.  For the week, the S&P 500 gained +26.95 points, or +1.3 percent.  Year to date, the S&P 500 is up +85.96 points, or +4.2 percent.  The S&P 500 is only -2.92 points down from its 52 week high of 2132.82, or -0.137 percent.  The S&P 500 is up +319.80 points from its 52 week low of 1810.10, or +17.668 percent.
  Friday, the Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq, .IXIC) gained +79.95 points, or +1.6 percent, to 4,956.76.  For the week, the Nasdaq gained +94.19 points, or +1.9 percent.  Year to date, the laggard Nasdaq is down -50.65 points, or -1 percent.  The Nasdaq is down -275.18 points  from its 52 week high of 5231.94, or -5.26 percent.  The Nasdaq is also up +747 points from its 52 week low of 4209.76, or +17.744 percent.
    ————————————————-
  The benefit of my own homework … is the information I am looking at in my spreadsheets, databases, and charts.  Strongly Bullish and Scary Bullish.  Friday, the S&P500 set new maximums for both year to date (ytd) and Monday.  The Pivot point for Monday at 2122.86 is a new ytd high. Support (s1) at 2114.37 for Monday is also a new ytd high. The old Support (s2) high of 2109.62 didn’t fall to Monday’s (s2) of 2098.12.  Both Resistances (r1) at 2138.75 and (r2) at 2147.60 for Monday are also new ytd highs.  The S&P 500 closed Friday a strong  +31.11 points, or +1.482% above its Pivot Point (PP) for Friday … the year to date daily  average is +1.691 points.   Also, the S&P 500 closed Friday a strong +7.04 points above its Pivot Point for Monday … the year to date daily average is +1.130 points.   There is more … but I have to triple check the math … and then maybe check it again …
  Below you will find the Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 7/11/2016 as calculated from the changes in Index points through Friday, 7/8/2016’s close.
      ———————————
Index chart 20160708

 Index performance Friday, 7/8/2016

  • Dow Jones    18,146.74  +250.86  (1.40%)    (chart: blue)
  • Nasdaq        4,956.76   +79.95  (1.64%)    (chart: gold)
  • S&P 500       2,129.90   +32.00  (1.53%)    (chart: red )
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   1,179.15  +17.91 (1.54%)
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1,177.36  +27.60 (2.40%)
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1,255.97  +19.85 (1.61%) 
  • CBOE (TNX)        13.66  -0.21 (-1.51%)
  • Volatility(VIX)   13.20  -1.56 (-10.57%)
 I. a. Select stocks of interest, from Friday, 7/8/2016
  • AAPL … 96.68  +0.74 (+0.77%)
  • C …… 41.98  +0.69 (+1.67%)   After Hours: 41.93 -0.05 (-0.12%)
  • CHK ….  4.24  +0.01 (+0.24%)   After Hours:  4.25 +0.01 (+0.24%)
  • FH …..  1.91  +0.06 (+3.24%)
  • GE ….. 32.20  +0.38 (+1.19%)   After Hours: 32.15 -0.05 (-0.16%)
  • JCP ….  8.49  +0.02 (+0.24%)
  • MPC …. 36.40  +0.92 (+2.59%)
  • MU ….. 12.62  +0.42 (+3.44%)
  • VZ ….. 55.90  +0.52 (0.94%)   After Hours: 55.81 -0.09 (-0.16%)
  •      select ETFs …
  • DIA …  181.28  +2.49 (1.39%)
  • QQQ …  110.30  +1.68 (1.55%)
  • SPY …  212.70  +3.16 (1.51%)
  • GLD …  130.52  +0.78 (0.60%)
  • SLV ….  19.22  +0.51 (2.73%)
  • IWD …  103.61  +1.62 (1.59%)
  • IWF …  102.13  +1.50 (1.49%)
  • IWM …  116.76  +2.54 (2.22%)
  • IWV …  125.30  +1.94 (1.57%)
 I. b. Sector summary from Friday, 7/8/2016
Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)
  • Basic Materials ………….  +2.79%
  • Financials ………………  +1.83%
  • Industrials ……………..  +1.75%
  • Cyclical Cons. Goods ……..  +1.68%
  • Technology ………………  +1.64%
  • Energy ………………….  +1.47%
  • Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods ….  +1.31%
  • Utilities ……………….  +1.03%
  • Telecommunications Srvcs ….  +1.01%
  • Healthcare ………………  +0.92%

 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Friday, 7/8/2016

  II. a.  USA  Bonds
  • 3 Month  0.28%  -0.02 (-6.67%)
  • 6 Month  0.36%  0.00 (0.00%)
  •  2 Year  0.60%  -0.01 (-1.64%)
  •  5 Year  0.94%  -0.05 (-5.05%)
  • 10 Year  1.36%  -0.05 (-3.55%)
  • 30 Year  2.10%  -0.05 (-2.33%)
  II. b.  Currencies
  • AUD/USD .. 0.7570  0.0000 (0.00%)
  • EUR/USD .. 1.1050  0.0000 (0.00%)
  • GBP/USD .. 1.2950  0.0000 (0.00%)
  • USD/CAD .. 1.3038  0.0000 (0.00%)
  • USD/CNY .. 6.6898  0.0000 (0.00%)
  • USD/HKD .. 7.7582  0.0000 (0.00%)
  • USD/JPY  100.5800  0.0000 (0.00%)

 II. c.   US Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

For both Bulls and Bears:

current XLE quote (Reuters) and more

Related previous XLE analysis:

  II. e.    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
 Remaining meetings:   ( FOMC  Calendar & info )
  • July 26-27                        ( IMHO, no rate increase expected )
  • September 20-21*
  • November 1-2
  • December 13-14*
* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Fed Chairperson  Ms. J. Yellen.
  • –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
  • –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
  •      –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

 III.  Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 7/11/2016

 Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  See Section V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015) to track changes in this info.  See the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) calculations added to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
:: If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
:: If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
:: Please Note: ALL projections are for reference only as they can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
dji-nas-spx %Chng 20160708
Chart #2  (above, daily, %Change)  Index performance DJIA, Nasdaq, & S&P500  (August 21, 2015 thru Wednesday, 7/8/2016)  Note effect of the UK  Brexit vote to exit EU 6/23/2016- 6/24/2016
      ————————————
  Note:  The End of Day (EOD) percentage change charts posted here reflect the cumulative change in index points from their closes on 8/21/2015 … before Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets threw a “terrible twos” toddler temper tantrum (alliteration)  winking smiley  and sent the US markets lower … not because the US Federal Reserve raised rates; but, merely because the FED was discussing and talking about raising rates a quarter point and advising it would then pause to gage the cause/effect from that rate increase, before proceeding.
        ———————————

  Index,  Close On 8/21/2015

  • DJIA  16459.75
  • Nasdaq 4706.04
  • S&P500 1970.89
  • Rus_1k 1099.81
  • Rus_2k 1156.79
  • Rus_3k 1176.23
  • .TNX    20.54
  • .VIX    28.03
( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
Closed 7/8 up  @  18,146.74  +250.86  (1.40%)
:: Closed   (above 7/8 PP)  (above 7/11 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   18094.91
  •   Support (s1)  18023.05       Support (s2)   17899.36
  •   Resistance (r1)   18218.60   Resistance (r2)   18290.46
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    17750.03       (uptick 7/8)
  •   52 week performance  +3.41%  YTD performance  +4.14%
( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
Closed 7/8 up  @    4,956.76   +79.95  (1.64%)
:: Closed   (above 7/8 PP)  (above 7/11 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  4939.01
  •   Support (s1)   4919.02      Support (s2)  4881.28
  •   Resistance (r1)  4976.75    Resistance (r2)  4996.74
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  4826.98          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  -0.82%   YTD performance  -1.01%
spx-vix %Chng 20160706
Chart #3 (above, daily, %change)  June 2016 was multi-event stressful, especially the last week of June 2016 the  global markets didn’t like the UK’s Brexit vote to leave the EU and the S&P 500 pulled back and the Volatility S&P500  Index went vertical …
           ————————————–
( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
Closed 7/8 up  @   2,129.90   +32.00  (1.53%)
:: Closed   (above 7/8 PP)  (above 7/11 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  2122.86
  •   Support (s1)  2114.01        Support (s2)  2098.12
  •   Resistance (r1)  2138.75     Resistance (r2)  2147.60
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  2077.65         (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +2.57%  YTD performance  +4.21%
rui-rut-rua %C 20160708
Chart #4  (above, daily, %Change)  Index performance Russell 1000 (RUI), Russell 2000 (RUT),Russell 3000 (RUA)  (August 2015 thru Wednesday, 7/6/2016)  Note effect of the UK  Brexit vote to exit EU 6/23/2016- 6/24/2016
      ————————————-
( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI) (ETF: IWD)
Closed 7/8 up  @  1,179.15  +17.91 (1.54%)
:: Closed   (above 7/8 PP)  (above 7/11 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1174.16
  •   Support (s1)  1168.13      Support (s2)  1157.12
  •   Resistance (r1)  1185.17   Resistance (r2)  1191.20
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1149.75          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +2.94%  YTD performance  +4.18%
( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
Closed 7/8 up  @  1,177.36  +27.60 (2.40%)
:: Closed   (above 7/8 PP)  (above 7/11 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  1169.24
  •   Support (s1)   1160.36      Support (s2)   1143.36
  •   Resistance (r1)  1186.24    Resistance (r2)  1195.12
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1138.80          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  -4.60%   YTD performance   +3.65%
( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA)
Closed 7/8 up   @  1,255.97  +19.85 (1.61%)
:: Closed   (above 7/8 PP)  (above 7/11 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1250.52
  •   Support (s1)   1244.05     Support (s2)  1232.13
  •   Resistance (r1)  1262.44   Resistance (r2)  1268.91
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1223.64          (uptrend  3/16)
  •   52 week performance   -0.01%    YTD performance  +4.13%
tnx %C 20160708
Chart #5 (above, daily, %change)  June 2016 was multi-event stressful.  Pre-Brexit vote jitters sent bond interest rates up, until Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets  figured things out …
           ————————————–
( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
Closed 7/8 down  @   13.66  -0.21 (-1.51%)
:: Closed   (below 7/8 PP)  (below 7/11 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    13.91
  •   Support (s1)    13.40      Support (s2)  13.15
  •   Resistance (r1)  14.16     Resistance (r2)  14.67
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  16.95          (downtrend)
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  19.65          (downtrend)
  •   :: Close (128 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  (-5.986) pts., or (-30.470%)
  •   :: 52 week performance  -43.48%   YTD performance -39.80%
vix %C 20160708
Chart #6 (above, daily, %change)   The Volatility S&P500  Index (VIX)   Put a button label at the bottom each time the VIX went vertical …and we can see the Bears aren’t getting much time to celebrate pull backs.  The red/green color change in the VIX plot is a  statistical analysis I am testing … a Bulls/Bears are in trouble warning.   more homework needed.
           ————————————–
( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
Closed 7/8 down   @  13.20  -1.56 (-10.57%)
:: Closed  (below 7/8 PP)  (below 7/11 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    13.71
  •   Support (s1)    12.68      Support (s2)   12.15
  •   Resistance (r1)  14.24     Resistance (r2)  15.27
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  16.16         (downtrend)
  •   :: 52 week performance   -5.04%   YTD performance  -27.51%
  •     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
 IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Monday, 7/11/2016
  • Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
  •   Dow Jones …. 18254.53  …  18058.98
  •   Nasdaq……..  4986.75  …   4929.02
  •   S&P 500 ……  2143.18  …   2118.44
  •   Russell 1000 .  1188.19  …   1171.15
  •   Russell 2000 .  1190.68  …   1164.80
  •   Russell 3000 .  1265.68  …   1247.29
  •   CBOE TNX ……   14.04  …     13.28
  •   Volatility …    13.98  …     12.42
 V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/15)
  • Dow Jones ..  18167.63 ..  15370.33 .. (17425.03)  n/c
  • Nasdaq …..   5231.94 ..   4209.76 ..  (5007.41)  n/c
  • S&P 500 ….   2132.82 ..   1810.10 ..  (2043.94)  n/c
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   1188.48 ..    995.55 ..  (1069.65)  n/c
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1275.90 ..    943.10 ..  (1135.89)  n/c
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1271.96 ..   1056.45 ..  (1206.10)  n/c
  • CBOE (TNX) ….. 24.61 …    13.36 …   (22.69)  n/c
  • Volatility(VIX)  53.29 …    10.88 …   (18.21)  n/c
  •    —     —     —     —     —     —
  •     n/c* = no change  c-* = changed lower

-–  Monday, 7/11/2016   thru    Friday 7/15/2016  ——-

Hope the above Index Support and Resistance calculations for Monday, 7/11/2016 help your investing and trading planning today …

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3 thoughts on “Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 7/11/2016

  1. HSI 20880.50 316.33 1.54%
    NIKKEI 15708.82 601.84 3.98%
    STI 2876.14 29.10 1.02%
    ASX 200 5337.10 106.57 2.04%
    SHANGHAI 2996.04 7.95 0.27%

    Last nights E-mini futures indicated a bullish green open for this morning. This mornings E-mini futures are much stronger and very bullish for a green open and … yet the day hasn’t begun. So, how we finish today, will be the message, whether Bullish, or Bearish, setting the tone for the rest of the week … because this Friday is 3rd Friday of the month options expiry.

    Like

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