Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 7/25/2016

  Friday’s close, the 15th trading day in July,  saw every sector up except Basic Materials, and Basic Materials was only off by -0.06 percent.  For the Bulls, is was a slow and steady climb for stocks and the indices with profit taking pullbacks that only served to bring buyers back in.  Profit taking by traders and investors in the last twenty minutes, and during after hours trading, could set up Monday, depending on earnings reports and global current events, for another green day.  Next week is also the last five trading days in July 2016.
   Global current events include Beijing, China letting the yuan slide against the U.S. dollar.    Second, the hype surrounding the current amount of crude in storage, yes, even though weekly drawdowns are occurring and being reported, in the USA and  globally.   Note, the USA, per the US EIA, is down to 31.1 days of commercial crude supplies.  While 31.1 days of commercial crude supply is above historical norms, it begs the common sense question: Why are the talking heads hyping “glut”, when the alternative of fewer days of “crude supply” could mean plus $100/barrel crude  prices, and consumers stressed to exhaustion by energy costs reducing their discretionary funds to zero, … or worse …  consumers with negative budget busting consequences?    Are  the talking heads not paying attention to the FED and global Central banks that are saying they are counting on “consumer spending” to re-invigorate growth?   One hundred dollar per barrel crude is NOT good for the consumer, the USA economy, or the global consumers, or the global economy.
    Third, there are reports indicating the UK is beginning to show cracks in its economy in light of the Brexit vote to leave the EU.    There’s also the Turkey issues surfacing from the failed coup attempt.   There’s more … feel free to add in the comments below …

 New Intraday Highs/Lows see Table V. below …  

Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 posted a new 52 week intraday high every day.  Last week the S&P 500 posted only 1 new intra day high, on Wednesday; however, the S&P 500 did close Friday with a new closing 2015-2016 high.
Friday the Russell 3000 (RUA) posted a new intraday, and a new 2015-2016 closing high, the 6th intraday new high in the last 9 trading days.
      ——————————————-

Below you will find the Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 7/25/2016 as calculated from the changes in Index points through Friday, 7/22/2016’s close.

Related for Monday:
  The DOW JONES Industrial Average Index (DJIA, .DJI) for Monday, 7/25/2016 (d-w-m)

 

     ————————————————-
Index chart 20160722

 Index performance Friday, 7/22/2016

  • DJI Avg      18,570.85  +53.62  (+0.29%)    (chart: blue)
  • Nasdaq        5,100.16  +26.26  (+0.52%)    (chart: gold)
  • S&P 500       2,175.03   +9.86  (+0.46%)    (chart: red )
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   1,204.29  +5.68  (+0.47%)
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1,212.89  +9.03  (+0.75%)
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1,283.57  +6.31  (+0.49%)  (3)
  • CBOE (TNX)        15.70  +0.05  (+0.32%)
  • Volatility(VIX)   12.02  -0.72  (-5.65%)
  • DJ Trans Avg   7,965.98  +107.39 (+1.37%)
  •  (1) new intraday high  (2) new closing high (3) both (1) and (2)
 I. a. Select stocks of interest, from Friday, 7/22/2016
  • AAPL …  98.66  -0.77 (-0.77%)
  • C ……  44.30  +0.17 (+0.39%)
  • CHK ….   5.39  +0.42 (+8.45%)
  • FH …..   2.41  +0.03 (+1.26%)
  • GE …..  32.06  -0.53 (-1.63%)
  • JCP ….   9.15  +0.06 (+0.72%)
  • MPC ….  37.82  +0.69 (+1.86%)
  • MU …..  13.13  -0.05 (-0.38%)
  • VZ …..  56.10  +0.73 (+1.32%)
  •      select ETFs …
  • DIA …  185.51  +0.49 (+0.26%)
  • QQQ …  113.65  +0.47 (+0.42%)
  • SPY …  217.25  +1.03 (+0.48%)
  • GLD …  126.35  -0.98 (-0.77%)
  • SLV ….  18.67  -0.21 (-1.11%)
  • IWD …  105.93  +0.51 (+0.48%)
  • IWF …  104.27  +0.39 (+0.38%)
  • IWM …  120.38  +0.83 (+0.69%)
  • IWV …  128.11  +0.62 (+0.49%)
 I. b. Sector summary from Friday, 7/22/2016
Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)
  • Utilities ……………………. +0.95%   
  • Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods ………. +0.94%
  • Telecommunications Srvcs ………. +0.91%
  • Financials …………………… +0.61%
  • Technology …………………… +0.51%
  • Cyclical Cons. Goods ………….. +0.43%
  • Industrials ………………….. +0.23%
  • Healthcare …………………… +0.23%
  • Energy ………………………. +0.18%  
  • Basic Materials ………… -0.06%
 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Friday, 7/22/2016
  II. a.  USA  Bonds
  • 3 Month  0.31%  +0.01 (+3.33%)
  • 6 Month  0.42%  +0.02 (+5.00%)
  •  2 Year  0.71%  +0.00 (+0.00%)
  •  5 Year  1.12%  -0.01 (-0.88%)
  • 10 Year  1.57%  -0.03 (-1.88%)
  • 30 Year  2.28%  -0.04 (-1.72%)
  II. b.  Currencies
  • AUD/USD .. 0.7463  -0.0003 (-0.04%)
  • EUR/USD .. 1.0974  +0.0000 (.0.00%)
  • GBP/USD .. 1.3144  +0.0031 (.0.24%)
  • USD/CAD .. 1.3126  -0.0004 (-0.03%)
  • USD/CNY .. 6.6919  +0.0000 (+0.00%)
  • USD/HKD .. 7.7582  +0.0002 (+0.00%)
  • USD/JPY  106.2250  +0.1200 (.0.11%)
  II. cUS Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

For both Bulls and Bears:

current XLE quote (Reuters) and more

Related previous XLE analysis:

  II. e.    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
 Remaining meetings:   ( FOMC  Calendar & info )
  • July 26-27                        ( IMHO, no rate increase expected )
  • September 20-21*
  • November 1-2
  • December 13-14*
* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Fed Chairperson  Ms. J. Yellen.
  • –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
  • –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
  •      –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
 III.  Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 7/25/2016
 Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  See Section V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015) to track changes in this info.  See the 200 day simple moving average (sma200) calculations added to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma50),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
:: If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
:: If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
:: Please Note: ALL projections are for reference only as they can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
Closed 7/22 up  @  18,570.85  +53.62  (+0.29%)
:: Closed   (above 7/22 PP)  (above 7/25 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   18544.58
  •   Support (s1)  18517.86       Support (s2)   18464.87
  •   Resistance (r1)   18597.57   Resistance (r2)   18624.29
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    17892.04       (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +4.73%  YTD performance  +6.58%
( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
Closed 7/22 up  @     5,100.16  +26.26  (+0.52%)
:: Closed   (above 7/22 PP)  (above 7/25 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  5089.26
  •   Support (s1)   5075.01      Support (s2) 5049.85
  •   Resistance (r1)  5114.42    Resistance (r2)  5128.67
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  4882.50          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +0.23%   YTD performance  +1.85%
( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
Closed 7/22 up  @   2,175.03   +9.86  (+0.46%)
:: Closed   (above 7/22 PP)  (above 7/25 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  2171.13
  •   Support (s1)  2167.14        Support (s2)  2159.26
  •   Resistance (r1)  2179.01     Resistance (r2)  2183.00
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  2096.82         (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +4.59%  YTD performance  +6.41%
( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI) (ETF: IWD)
Closed 7/22 up  @  1,204.29  +5.68  (+0.47%)
:: Closed   (above 7/22 PP)  (above 7/25 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1202.09
  •   Support (s1)  1199.82      Support (s2)  1195.35
  •   Resistance (r1)  1206.56   Resistance (r2)  1208.83
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1160.42          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +2.78%  YTD performance  +6.40%
( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
Closed 7/22 up  @  1,212.89  +9.03  (+0.75%)
:: Closed   (above 7/22 PP)  (above 7/25 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  1209.76
  •   Support (s1)   1205.36      Support (s2)   1197.83
  •   Resistance (r1)  1217.29    Resistance (r2)  1221.69
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1154.96          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  -2.58%   YTD performance   6.78%
( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA)
Closed 7/22 up   @  1,283.57  +6.31  (+0.49%)
:: Closed   (above 7/22 PP)  (above 7/25 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1281.14
  •   Support (s1)   1278.61     Support (s2)  1188.84
  •   Resistance (r1)  1286.09   Resistance (r2)  1288.62
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1234.68          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance   +4.15%    YTD performance  +6.42%
( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
Closed 7/22 up  @   1,283.57  +6.31  (+0.49%)
:: Closed   (below 7/22 PP)  (below 7/25 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    15.71
  •   Support (s1)    15.43      Support (s2)  15.16
  •   Resistance (r1)  15.98     Resistance (r2)  16.26
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  16.41          (downtrend)
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  19.37         (downtrend)
  •   :: Close (138 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  (-3.668) pts., or (-18.937%)
  •   :: 52 week performance  -30.87%   YTD performance -30.81%
( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
Closed 7/22 down   @  12.02  -0.72  (-5.65%)
:: Closed  (below 7/22 PP)  (below 7/25 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    12.29
  •   Support (s1)    11.70      Support (s2)   11.38
  •   Resistance (r1)  12.61     Resistance (r2)  13.20
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  15.68         (downtrend)
  •   :: 52 week performance   -22.95%   YTD performance  -33.99%
  •     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

 IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Monday, 7/25/2016

  • Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
  •   DJI Avg   …. 18610.93  …  18531.22
  •   Nasdaq …….  5121.55  …   5082.14
  •   S&P 500 ……  2181.01  …   2169.14
  •   Russell 1000 .  1207.70  …   1200.96
  •   Russell 2000 .  1219.49  …   1207.56
  •   Russell 3000 .  1287.36  …   1279.88
  •   CBOE TNX ……   15.85  …     15.30
  •   Volatility …    12.45  …     11.54

 V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/15)

  • DJI Avg   ..  18622.01 ..  15370.33 .. (17425.03)  n/c
  • Nasdaq …..   5197.00 ..   4209.76 ..  (5007.41)  n/c
  • S&P 500 ….   2175.63 ..   1810.10 ..  (2043.94)  n/c
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   1204.36 c+    995.55 ..  (1069.65)  c+*
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1262.57 ..    943.10 ..  (1135.89)  n/c
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1283.66 c+   1056.45 ..  (1206.10)  c+*
  • CBOE (TNX) ….. 23.77 …    13.36 …   (22.69)  n/c
  • Volatility(VIX)  53.29 …    10.88 …   (18.21)  n/c
  •    —     —     —     —     —     —
  •   n/c* =no change  c-* =changed lower  c+* =changed higher

-–  Monday, 7/25/2016   thru    Friday 7/29/2016  ——

Hope the above Index Support and Resistance calculations for Monday, 7/25/2016  help your investing and trading planning today …

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