Index Support and Resistance for Tuesday, 8/2/2016

 

  U.S. stocks wobbled and finished marginally lower Monday as the price of crude oil continued to pullback thanks to continuing over-supply themed news reports and articles, as well as the strengthening US dollar.  Energy companies took the biggest losses as U.S. crude hovered around $40 a barrel, its lowest price in almost four months, and materials companies also traded lower.
The crude facts are simple, in this continuing saga of zero, and even negative interest rates, it is economically feasible for those with no end use for crude, to BUY crude, take possession, transport, stuff crude into storage, even BUILD MORE storage … and play the contango game.  These people are DEMAND.  These people are taking the global crude production surplus, supporting the crude price … while serving to constrain crude futures prices.  Crude stored as collateral against futures sold … is NOT supply, it’s collateral.   EVENTUALLY, collateral crude will transition to supply crude … but not today.
Saudi Arabia’s financial warfare plan against high cost producers, like US shale, off-shore drillers, as well as seeking to deprive Iran, Saudi Arabia’s long time adversary, of income, was a flawed plan from the get-go.  The flawed plan is costing OPEC countries, like Venezuela, serious economic hardship, and political unrest.  Add political unrest in Nigeria, and Libya, et cetera, … and the stage is set for catastrophe.  The first OPEC country that falls apart due to OPEC embracing Saudi Arabia’s flawed strategy, will no doubt lead to blame rightly being placed at Saudi Arabia’s doorstep.     
  —————————————————————-
  Monday, 8/1/2016, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, .DJI) pulled back -27.73 points, or -0.2 percent, to 18,404.51.  Year to date (YTD), the DJIA is up +979.48 points, or +5.6 percent.
  Monday, 8/1/2016, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index 500 (SPX, .INX) pulled back -2.76 points, or -0.1 percent, to 2,170.84.  Year to date (YTD), the S&P 500 is up +126.90 points, or +6.21 percent.  The S&P500 Index set set new Year to date (YTD) highs for the Open, High, and the Low.  The new S&P500 YTD high was also a 52 week high at 2178.29.
  Monday, 8/1/2016, the Nasdaq Composite (NAS, .IXIC) gained +22.06 points, or +0.4 percent, to 5,184.20.  Year to date (YTD), the Nasdaq is up +176.79 points, or +3.531 percent.  Nasdaq Composite set new Year to date (YTD) highs for the Open, High, Low, and Close … PLUS a new 52 week High at  5199.13.
 Monday, the Russell 3000 Index (RUA) set new Year to date (YTD) highs for the Open, High, Low, and Close … PLUS a new intraday 52 week High at 1287.14.
 Monday, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) set new Year to date (YTD) highs for the Open, High, and the Low.  The new YTD closing high 1219.94 was set Friday 7/29/2016.  From a February 2016 closing low of 953.72, approximately 5.5 months ago, the Russell 2000 Index has rallied +266.22 points, or a strongly bullish +27.914 percent.
 Monday, the Russell 1000 Index (RUI) set new Year to date (YTD) highs for the Open, High, and the Low.  The new Russell 1000 Index YTD closing high 1204.43 was set Friday 7/29/2016.  The new Russell 1000 Index YTD high 1207.00 was also a new 52 week high.
  Australia’s Central Bank cut interest rates to a new record low of 1.5% as it moves to counter disinflation and support a labor market hampered by high levels of part-time work and underemployment.  Sound familiar?
  —————————————————————-
   Related Blog(s):
   —————————
  Below you will find the Index Support and Resistance for Tuesday, 8/2/2016 as calculated from the changes in Index points through Monday, 8/1/2016’s close.
                     ——————————

Index chart 20160801
 I.   Index performance Monday, 8/1/2016

  • Dow Jones    18,404.51  -27.73  (-0.15%)    (chart: blue)
  • Nasdaq        5,184.20  +22.06  (+0.43%)    (chart: gold)
  • S&P 500       2,170.84   -2.76  (-0.13%)    (chart: red )
  •   ——————————————-
  • DJ Transports 7,815.65  -30.76 (-0.39%)
  • Rus 1k (RUI)  1,202.66  -1.77 (-0.15%)
  • Rus 2k (RUT)  1,219.12  -0.82 (-0.07%)
  • Rus 3k (RUA)  1,282.46  -1.81 (-0.14%)
  • CBOE (TNX)       14.96  +0.38 (+2.61%)
  • Volatility(VIX)  12.44  +0.57 (+4.80%)
 I. a. Select stocks of interest, from Monday, 8/1/2016
  • AAPL …  106.05  +1.84 (+1.77%)   After Hours: 106.19 +0.14 (+0.13%)
  • C ……   43.42  -0.39 (-0.89%)   After Hours:  43.43 +0.01 (+0.02%)
  • CHK ….    5.09  -0.33 (-6.09%)   After Hours:   5.13 +0.04 (+0.79%)
  • FH …..    2.25  -0.21 (-8.54%)
  • GE …..   31.15  +0.01 (+0.03%)   After Hours:  31.12 -0.03 (-0.10%)
  • JCP ….    9.71  +0.05 (+0.52%)   After Hours:   9.70 -0.01 (-0.10%)
  • MPC ….   38.80  -0.59 (-1.50%)   After Hours:  38.87 +0.07 (+0.18%)
  • MU …..   13.56  -0.18 (-1.31%)   After Hours:  13.64 +0.08 (+0.59%)
  • VZ …..   54.50  -0.91 (-1.64%)   After Hours:  54.48 -0.02 (-0.04%)
  •      select ETFs …
  • DIA …  183.87  -0.26 (-0.14%)
  • QQQ …  115.84  +0.61 (+0.53%)   After Hours: 115.84 +0.00 (+0.00%)
  • SPY …  216.93  -0.22 (-0.10%)   After Hours: 217.00 +0.07 (+0.03%)
  • GLD …  129.22  +0.24 (+0.19%)   After Hours: 129.05 -0.17 (-0.13%)
  • SLV ….  19.43  +0.08 (+0.41%)   After Hours: 19.43 0.00 (0.00%)
  • IWD …  105.07  -0.50 (-0.47%)
  • IWF …  105.00  +0.28 (+0.27%)
  • IWM …  121.20  +0.11 (+0.09%)   After Hours: 121.23 +0.03 (0.02%)
  • IWV …  128.05  -0.16 (-0.12%)
 I. b. Sector summary from Monday, 8/1/2016
Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)
  • Healthcare ……………………………. +0.53% 
  • Technology …………………………… +0.50%
  • Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods ………… +0.02%
  • Cyclical Cons. Goods ………. -0.08%
  • Telecommunications Srvcs …… -0.12%
  • Industrials ………………. -0.18%  
  • Utilities ………………… -0.37%
  • Financials ……………….. -0.42% 
  • Basic Materials …………… -0.64%  
  • Energy …………………… -3.22% 

 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Monday, 8/1/2016

  II. a.  USA  Bonds
  • 3 Month  0.25%  -0.02 (-7.41%)
  • 6 Month  0.37%  +0.01 (+2.78%)
  •  2 Year  0.68%  +0.00 (+0.00%)
  •  5 Year  1.07%  +0.01 (+0.94%)
  • 10 Year  1.52%  +0.02 (+1.33%)
  • 30 Year  2.27%  +0.03 (+1.34%)
  II. b.  Currencies
  • AUD/USD .. 0.7524  -0.0002 (-0.03%)
  • EUR/USD .. 1.1179  +0.0012 (+0.11%)
  • GBP/USD .. 1.3200  +0.0015 (+0.12%)
  • USD/CAD .. 1.3119  -0.0004 (-0.03%)
  • USD/CNY .. 6.6461  +0.0034 (+0.05%)
  • USD/HKD .. 7.7597  -0.0014 (-0.02%)
  • USD/JPY  102.5395  +0.2380 (+0.23%)
 II. cUS Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

For both Bulls and Bears:

current XLE quote (Reuters) and more

Related previous XLE analysis:

  II. e.    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
 Remaining meetings:   ( FOMC  Calendar & info )
  • July 26-27                        ( as expected, no rate increase  )
  • September 20-21*        ( needs more homework )
  • November 1-2
  • December 13-14*
* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Fed Chairperson  Ms. J. Yellen.
  • –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
  • –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

 III.  Index Support and Resistance for Tuesday, 8/2/2016

 Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  See Section V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015) to track changes in this info.  See the 200 day simple moving average (sma200) calculations added to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma50),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
:: If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
:: If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
:: Please Note:   ALL projections are for reference only as they can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
Closed 8/2 down  @  18,404.51  -27.73  (-0.15%)
:: Closed   (below 8/1 PP)  (below 8/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   18409.10
  •   Support (s1)  18351.16       Support (s2)   18297.82
  •   Resistance (r1)   18462.44   Resistance (r2)   18520.38
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    17997.51       (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +4.04%  YTD performance  +5.62%
( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
Closed 8/2 up  @    5,184.20  +22.06  (+0.43%)
:: Closed   (above 8/1 PP)  (below 8/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  5180.75
  •   Support (s1)   5162.38      Support (s2)  5140.55
  •   Resistance (r1)  5202.58    Resistance (r2)  5220.95
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  4931.51          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +1.35%   YTD performance  +3.53%
( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
Closed 8/2 down  @   2,170.84   -2.76  (-0.13%)
:: Closed   (below 8/1 PP)  (below 8/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  2171.78
  •   Support (s1)  2165.27        Support (s2)  2159.70
  •   Resistance (r1)  2177.35     Resistance (r2)  2183.86
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  2110.95         (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +3.47%  YTD performance  +6.21%
( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI) (ETF: IWD)
Closed 8/2 down  @  1,202.66  -1.77 (-0.15%)
:: Closed   (below 8/1 PP)  (below 8/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1203.31
  •   Support (s1)  1199.61      Support (s2)  1196.57
  •   Resistance (r1)  1206.35   Resistance (r2)  1210.05
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1168.45          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +2.48%  YTD performance  +6.25%
( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
Closed 8/2 down  @  1,219.12  -0.82 (-0.07%)
:: Closed   (above 8/1 PP)  (below 8/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  1219.41
  •   Support (s1)   1214.35      Support (s2)   1209.59
  •   Resistance (r1)  1224.17    Resistance (r2)  1229.23
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1168.54          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  -1.58%   YTD performance   +7.33%
( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA)
Closed 8/2 down   @  1,282.46  -1.81 (-0.14%)
:: Closed   (below 8/1 PP)  (below 8/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1283.15
  •   Support (s1)   1279.16     Support (s2)  1275.86
  •   Resistance (r1)  1286.45   Resistance (r2)  1290.44
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1243.46          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance   +2.68%    YTD performance  +6.33%
( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
Closed 8/2 up  @   14.96  +0.38 (+2.61%)
:: Closed   (above 8/1 PP)  (above 8/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    14.93
  •   Support (s1)    14.78      Support (s2)  14.60
  •   Resistance (r1)  15.11     Resistance (r2)  15.26
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  16.14          (downtrend)
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  19.21         (downtrend)
  •   :: Close (144 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  (-4.245) pts., or (-22.104%)
  •   :: 52 week performance  -30.42%   YTD performance  -34.07
( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
Closed 8/2 up   @  12.44  +0.57 (+4.80%)
:: Closed  (above 8/1 PP)  (above 8/2 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    12.43
  •   Support (s1)    11.87      Support (s2)   11.31
  •   Resistance (r1)  12.99     Resistance (r2)  13.55
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  15.39         (downtrend)
  •   :: 52 week performance   -4.31%   YTD performance  -31.69%
  •     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
 IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Tuesday, 8/2/2016
  • Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
  •   Dow Jones …. 18435.77  …  18324.49
  •   Nasdaq……..  5211.77  …   5171.57
  •   S&P 500 ……  2174.57  …   2162.49
  •   Russell 1000 .  1204.83  …   1198.09
  •   Russell 2000 .  1221.79  …   1211.97
  •   Russell 3000 .  1284.80  …   1277.51
  •   CBOE TNX ……   15.19  …     14.86
  •   Volatility …    13.27  …     12.15
 V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/15)
  • DJI Avg   ..  18622.01 ..  15370.33 .. (17425.03)  n/c
  • Nasdaq …..   5199.13 c+   4209.76 ..  (5007.41)  c+*
  • S&P 500 ….   2178.29 c+   1810.10 ..  (2043.94)  c+*
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   1207.00 c+    995.55 ..  (1069.65)  c+*
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1244.98 ..    943.10 ..  (1135.89)  n/c
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1287.14 c+   1056.45 ..  (1206.10)  c+*
  • CBOE (TNX) ….. 23.77 …    13.36 …   (22.69)  n/c
  • Volatility(VIX)  53.29 …    10.88 …   (18.21)  n/c
  •    —     —     —     —     —     —
  •   n/c* =no change  c-* =changed lower  c+* =changed higher

-–  Monday, 8/1/2016   thru    Friday 8/5/2016  ——

 

Hope the above Index Support and Resistance calculations for Tuesday, 8/2/2016  help your investing and trading planning today …

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