Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 8/15/2016

 

  There are doubts, concerns, and worries, the US markets’ stocks and Indices are over priced in relation to earnings and growth and that expections of a continued uptrend, without a pull back, or correction, is a reach.   However, the US stocks and indices reflect that US companies, when measured against their competitors, in a global environment and economy,  are simply doing better in this tough domestic and global economy.
Globally, Central Banks, looking to boost their own economies, putting people back to work, achieving their growth and inflation targets, have been pinning their hopes on the consumer to bail them out; BUT, instead of adopting consumer oriented game plans, Central Banks are feeding QE addicted global stock markets, and so interest rates have been reduced to ZERO, and even negative interest rates.   Note to Central Banks:  The consumer is the KEY !!
Markets do not have to plunge to correct.  Markets CAN and DO correct sideways, over time, and looking out globally, economic conditions can and … with time and patience …  improve.   Improving economic conditions will mean opportunities to increase sales, revenues, and earnings.  A sideways correction introduces itself when people notice stocks and indices are trading in ranges, or bands.  Profit taking occurs when the stock, or index, hits the top of the band, causing the stock, or index, to trend lower until approaching the bottom of the band/range, buying occurs, and then you’ll note a slow trend back to the top of the band/range when the “rinse and repeat” begins anew.
  The point of doing Support and Resistance analysis to look at what the data tells us Buyers (Bulls) and Sellers (Bears) actually did, … Friday, last week, last month, so far this year, … et cetera.  Of course, analysis of past data, can not guarantee similar future results.   That stated, we can still use this data, calculations, and more, to create projections for Risk versus Reward ratios.  We each need to know our own tolerance for Risk.  Knowing the Risk allows us to compare the calculated Risk against our Risk tolerance, … and then against the “potential” Reward … to determine if the potential Reward is a reach, a stretch, or just not worth it.
                      —————————

  Higher highs and higher lows suggest the upward trend will continue ….

  • On Friday, the DJIA (DJIA, .DJI) posted a new YTD higher Open at 18595.65.
  • On Friday, the Nasdaq Comp (NAS, .IXIC) posted a new YTD higher Low at 5215.54. On Friday, the Nasdaq Comp (NAS, .IXIC) posted a new YTD higher Close at 5232.89.
  • On Friday, the S&P 500 (SPX, .INX) posted a new YTD higher Low at 2179.42.  Friday’s  S&P 500 Open at 2183.74 was only 0.02 points lower than Monday’s (8/8/2016) Open at 2183.76.
  • On Friday, the Russell 1000 (.RUI) had a new YTD higher Open at 1210.25, and a new YTD higher LOW, at 1207.04.
  • On Friday, the Russell 3000 (.RUA) had a new YTD higher Open at 1290.07, and a new YTD higher LOW, at 1287.25.
  • See the links below for how the previous “projected” highs and lows are moving

 

                   ——————————————-
Below you will find the Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 8/15/2016 as calculated from the changes in Index points through Friday, 8/12/2016’s closeSee  below for Section IV. Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Monday, 8/15/2016.
                   ——————————————-

Index chart 20160812
 I.   Index performance Friday, 8/12/2016

  • DJ Indu Avg  18,576.47  -37.05  (-0.20%)    (chart: blue)
  • Nasdaq        5,232.90   +4.50  (+0.09%)    (chart: gold)
  • S&P 500       2,184.05   -1.74  (-0.08%)    (chart: red )
  •   ——————————————-
  • DJ Trans Avg  7,807.18  -39.47 (-0.50%)
  • Rus 1k (RUI)  1,209.63  -0.92 (-0.08%)
  • Rus 2k (RUT)  1,229.82  +0.70 (+0.06%)
  • Rus 3k (RUA)  1,290.17  -0.85 (-0.07%)
  • CBOE (TNX)       15.15  -0.58 (-3.69%)
  • Volatility(VIX)  11.55  -0.13 (-1.11%)
 I. a. Select stocks of interest, from Friday, 8/12/2016
  • AAPL …  108.18  +0.25 (+0.23%)
  • C ……   45.58  -0.15 (-0.33%)
  • CHK ….    5.02  -0.01 (-0.20%)
  • DHT ……  5.14  -0.03 (-0.48%)
  • FH …..    2.08  +0.00 (+0.00%)
  • GE …..   31.24  -0.04 (-0.13%)
  • JCP ….   10.55  +0.61 (+6.14%)
  • MPC ….   41.71  -0.19 (-0.45%)
  • MU …..   14.93  +0.50 (+3.47%)
  • VZ …..   53.65  -0.21 (-0.39%)
  •      select ETFs …
  • DIA …  185.90  -0.40 (-0.21%)
  • QQQ …  117.20  +0.08 (+0.07%)
  • SPY …  218.41  -0.27 (-0.12%)
  • GLD …  127.40  -0.27 (-0.21%)
  • SLV ….  18.72  -0.24 (-1.27%)
  • IWD …  106.09  -0.09 (-0.08%)
  • IWF …  105.33  -0.12 (-0.11%)
  • IWM …  122.19  +0.08 (+0.07%)
  • IWV …  128.93  -0.07 (-0.05%)
 I. b. Sector summary from Friday, 8/12/2016
Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)
  • Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods ……………. +0.62%
  • Energy ……………………………. +0.45%
  • Cyclical Cons. Goods …………. -0.01%
  • Technology ………………….. -0.02%
  • Utilities …………………… -0.06%
  • Financials ………………….. -0.17%
  • Telecommunications Srvcs ……… -0.18%
  • Industrials …………………. -0.24%
  • Healthcare ………………….. -0.29%
  • Basic Materials ……………… -1.31%
  • Real Estate .. ( 8/31/2016 ) …………. * tbd *
  • The Eleventh Sector for 2016: Real Estate
              ————————————
                                            ——

 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Friday, 8/12/2016

  II. a.  USA  Bonds
  • 3 Month  0.27%  0.00 (0.00%)
  • 6 Month  0.42%  +0.01 (2.44%)
  •  2 Year  0.69%  0.00 (0.00%)
  •  5 Year  1.09%  +0.02 (1.87%)
  • 10 Year  1.51%  +0.02 (1.34%)
  • 30 Year  2.23%  +0.01 (0.45%)
  II. b.  Currencies
  • AUD/USD  0.7649  0.0000 (0.00%)
  • EUR/USD  1.1164  0.0000 (0.00%)
  • GBP/USD  1.2918  0.0000 (0.00%)
  • USD/CAD  1.2956  0.0000 (0.00%)
  • USD/CNY  6.6475  0.0000 (0.00%)
  • USD/HKD  7.7563  0.0000 (0.00%)
  • USD/JPY  101.3150  0.0000 (0.00%)

 II. c.    US Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

For both Bulls and Bears:

current XLE quote (Reuters) and more

Related previous XLE analysis:

  II. e.    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
 Remaining 2016  meetings:    ( FOMC  Calendar & info )
  • July 26-27                        ( as expected, no rate increase  )
  • September 20-21*        ( work in progress )
  • November 1-2
  • December 13-14*
* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Fed Chairperson  Ms. J. Yellen.
  • –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
  • –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

 III.  Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 8/15/2016

 Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  See  below for Section IV. Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Monday, 8/15/2016.  See Section V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015) to track changes in this info.  See the 200 day simple moving average (sma200) calculations added to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma50),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
:: If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
:: If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
:: Please Note:ALL projections are for reference only as they can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
dji-nas-spx %c20160812d
Chart #2  (above, EOD, %change)  The above DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500, Daily Index chart reflects the percentage change since the first markets’ correction 8/21/2015.  Note:  EOD= End of Day
             ——————
( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
Closed 8/12 down  @  18,576.47  -37.05  (-0.20%)
:: Closed  (below 8/12 PP)  (above 8/15 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   18572.80
  •   Support (s1)  18539.53       Support (s2)   18502.60
  •   Resistance (r1)   18609.73   Resistance (r2)   18643.00
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    18130.39       (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +6.71%  YTD performance  +6.61%
( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
Closed 8/12 up  @    5,232.90   +4.50  (+0.09%)
:: Closed   (above 8/12 PP)  (above 8/15 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  5227.26
  •   Support (s1)   5221.17      Support (s2) 5209.46
  •   Resistance (r1)  5238.97    Resistance (r2)  5245.06
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  4987.34          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +3.66%   YTD performance  +4.50%
( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
Closed 8/12 down  @   2,184.05   -1.74  (-0.08%)
:: Closed   (below 8/12 PP)  (above 8/15 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  2183.25
  •   Support (s1)  2180.22        Support (s2)  2176.39
  •   Resistance (r1)  2187.08     Resistance (r2)  2190.11
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  2127.32         (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +4.42%  YTD performance  +6.85%
rui-rua-rut %c20160812d
Chart #3  (above, EOD, %change)  The above Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell 1000, daily Index chart reflects the percentage change since the first markets’ correction 8/21/2015.
                ——————————
( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI) (ETF: IWD)
Closed 8/12 down  @  1,209.63  -0.92 (-0.08%)
:: Closed   (above 8/11 PP)  (above 8/12 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1209.23
  •   Support (s1)  1207.44      Support (s2)  1205.26
  •   Resistance (r1)  1211.41   Resistance (r2)  1213.20
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1177.63          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +4.10%   YTD performance  +6.87%
( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
Closed 8/12 up  @  1,229.82  +0.70 (+0.06%)
:: Closed  (above 8/12 PP)  (above 8/15 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  1228.84
  •    Support (s1)   1226.02      Support (s2)   1222.23
  •   Resistance (r1)  1232.63    Resistance (r2)  1235.45
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1183.06          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +2.08%    YTD performance   +8.27%
( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA)
Closed 8/12 down   @  1,290.17  -0.85 (-0.07%)
:: Closed   (above 8/12 PP)  (above 8/15 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1289.70
  •   Support (s1)   1287.72     Support (s2)  1285.27
  •   Resistance (r1)  1292.15   Resistance (r2)  1294.13
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1254.40          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance   +2.87%    YTD performance  +6.97%
tnx %c20160812d
Chart #4  (above, EOD, %change)  The above CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note , daily Index chart reflects the percentage change since the first markets correction 8/21/2015.
  ————————–
( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
Closed 8/12 down  @   15.15  -0.58 (-3.69%)
:: Closed   (below 8/12 PP)  (above 8/15 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    15.11
  •   Support (s1)    14.84      Support (s2)  14.54
  •   Resistance (r1)  15.41     Resistance (r2)  15.68
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  15.59          (downtrend)
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  18.99          (downtrend)
  •   :: Close (153 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  (-3.836) pts., or (-20.204%)
  •   :: 52 week performance  -31.01%   YTD performance  -33.23%
vix %c20160812d
Chart #5  (above, EOD, %change)  The above Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX), daily Index chart reflects the percentage change since the first markets’ correction 8/21/2015.
                       ————————-
( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
Closed 8/12 down  @  11.55  -0.13 (-1.11%)
:: Closed  (below 8/12 PP)  (below 8/15 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    11.61
  •   Support (s1)    11.22      Support (s2)   10.89
  •   Resistance (r1)  11.94     Resistance (r2)  12.33
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  14.98         (downtrend)
  •   :: 52 week performance   -11.29%   YTD performance  -36.57%
  •     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
 IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Monday, 8/15/2016
  • Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
  •   Dow Jones …. 18591.27  …  18521.07
  •   Nasdaq……..  5242.02  …   5224.22
  •   S&P 500 ……  2188.60  …   2181.74
  •   Russell 1000 .  1210.32  …   1206.35
  •   Russell 2000 .  1234.04  …   1227.43
  •   Russell 3000 .  1293.14  …   1288.71
  •   CBOE TNX ……   15.26  …     14.69
  •   Volatility …    11.78  …     11.06
 V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/15)
  • DJI Avg   ..  18638.34 ..  15370.33 .. (17425.03)  n/c
  • Nasdaq …..   5238.54 ..   4209.76 ..  (5007.41)  n/c
  • S&P 500 ….   2188.45 ..   1810.10 ..  (2043.94)  n/c
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   1211.96 ..    995.55 ..  (1069.65)  n/c
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1235.78 ..    943.10 ..  (1135.89)  n/c
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1292.52 ..   1056.45 ..  (1206.10)  n/c
  • CBOE (TNX) ….. 23.77 …    13.36 …   (22.69)  n/c
  • Volatility(VIX)  53.29 …    11.02 …   (18.21)  n/c
  •    —     —     —     —     —     —
  •   n/c* =no change  c-* =changed lower  c+* =changed higher

-–  Monday, 8/15/2016   thru    Friday 8/19/2016  ——

 

Hope the above Index Support and Resistance calculations for Monday, 8/15/2016  help your investing and trading planning today …

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43 thoughts on “Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 8/15/2016

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