Index Support and Resistance for Friday, 8/19/2016

 

 

First, Friday, tomorrow, is third Friday of the month options expiry … and that brings the increased volatility, with its approach and arrival, that we’ve been seeing this week.  Second, we’re approaching the Sunday anniversary of the first markets’ correction as of August 21, 2015.   Take your straddle date pick … third Friday of the month options expiry … or Monday 8/22/2016 as to which date scares the Nervous Nellies the most.
Yep, a whole year has vanished.  We clearly need to take some time to stop and smell the roses.

Oh yeah, with the first markets’ correction as of August 21, 2015 … 52 week  comparisons of stocks, and indices, will seemingly rocket skyward, with no explanation, perhaps providing cannon fodder for the Doom and Gloom crowd hoping to use correction comparison prices and points for over priced markets and stocks arguments.      

Do not let the Gloom and Doom articles trick you.  August 21, 2015 was 3rd Friday of the month options expiry nearly a year ago.  Some of the stocks, and indices were pulling back approaching options expiry …. so, numbers can look inflated … but aren’t … if you’re doing your own homework … and know why they are popping, or dropping.  As an example:

  Note the Russell 3000 (RUA) 52 week performance “yesterday”, shot up to +9.87%.  Not a mistake, nor a cause to dump the RUA …
  • Date,  Open,  High,  Low,  Close,  Volume
  •   8/17/2015 1243.32 1254.22 1239.53 1254.14 –
  •   8/18/2015 1252.88 1254.27 1248.53 1250.01 –
  •   8/19/2015 1245.85 1248.85 1233.77 1239.33 
  •   8/20/2015 1232.78 1232.78 1212.02 1212.02 –
  •   8/21/2015 1203.47 1205.91 1176.23 1176.23 
     —————————————-
  On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, .DJI) gained +23.76 points, or +0.1 percent, to 18,597.70.  For this week, the DJIA is up +21.23 points, or +0.1 percent.  Year to date (YTD), the DJIA is up +1,172.67 points, or +6.7 percent.
  The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX, .INX) gained +4.80 points, or +0.2 percent, to 2,187.02.  For this week, the SPX is up 2.97 points, or +0.1 percent.  Year to date (YTD), the SPX is up +143.08 points, or +7 percent.
  The Nasdaq Composite (NAS, .IXIC) gained +11.49 points, or +0.2 percent, to 5,240.15.  For this week, the NAS is up +7.25 points, or +0.1 percent.  Year to date (YTD), the Nasdaq is up +232.74 points, or +4.6 percent.
     —————————————-
  Below you will find the Index Support and Resistance for Friday, 8/19/2016 as calculated from the changes in Index points through Thursday, 8/18/2016’s close.    See  below for Section IV. Index “projected” Highs and Lows for today’s day and date.
         ————————————
Index chart 20160818

 I.   Index performance Thursday, 8/18/2016

  • DJ Indu Avg  18,597.70  +23.76  (+0.13%)    (chart: blue)
  • Nasdaq ….       5,240.15  +11.49  (+0.22%)    (chart: gold)
  • S&P 500 …      2,187.02   +4.80  (+0.22%)    (chart: red )
  •   ——————————————-
  • DJ Trans Avg  7,922.06  +39.59  (+0.50%)
  • Rus 1k (RUI)     1,211.20   +3.08  (+0.26%)
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1,236.85   +9.17  (+0.75%)
  • Rus 3k (RUA)  1,292.27   +3.76  (+0.29%)
  • CBOE (TNX)  …     15.36   -0.25  (-1.60%)
  • Volatility(VIX) … 11.43   -0.76  (-6.23%)
 I. a. Select stocks of interest, from Thursday, 8/18/2016
  • AAPL … 109.08  -0.14 (-0.13%)   After Hours: 109.21 +0.13 (0.12%)
  • C ……….  46.50  -0.13 (-0.28%)   After Hours:  46.50
  • CHK ……   6.20  +0.52 (+9.15%)   After Hours:   6.15 -0.05 (-0.81%)
  • DHT ……   5.40  +0.08 (+1.50%)   After Hours:   5.41 +0.01 (+0.19%)
  • FH ………   2.11  -0.06 (-2.76%)
  • GE ……..  31.43  +0.14 (+0.45%)   After Hours:  31.42 -0.01 (-0.03%)
  • JCP ……  10.28  -0.47 (-4.37%)   After Hours:  10.28
  • MPC ….  42.49  +0.28 (+0.66%)   After Hours:  42.49
  • MU ……  15.77  +0.25 (+1.61%)   After Hours:  15.93 +0.16 (+1.01%)
  • VZ …….  52.87  -0.30 (-0.56%)   After Hours:  52.85 -0.02 (-0.04%)
  •      select ETFs …
  • DIA ….  186.38  +0.30 (+0.16%)   After Hours: 186.30 -0.08 (-0.04%)
  • QQQ …  117.29  +0.03 (+0.03%)   After Hours: 117.38 +0.09 (+0.08%)
  • SPY …  218.90  +0.52 (+0.24%)   After Hours: 218.85 -0.05 (-0.02%)
  • GLD …  129.12  +0.61 (+0.47%)   After Hours: 128.84 -0.28 (-0.22%)
  • SLV …..  18.77  +0.09 (+0.48%)   After Hours:  18.78 +0.01 (+0.05%)
  • IWD …  106.75  +0.44 (+0.41%)
  • IWF ….  105.11  +0.10 (+0.10%)   After Hours: 105.39 +0.28 (+0.27%)
  • IWM …  122.95  +0.93 (+0.76%)   After Hours: 122.95
  • IWV …  129.21  +0.39 (+0.30%)
 I. b. Sector summary from Thursday, 8/18/2016
Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)
  • Energy …………………………… +1.33% 
  • Utilities ………………………….. +1.13%  
  • Basic Materials ………………… +0.89% 
  • Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods …… +0.65%  
  • Technology ……………………… +0.25%
  • Industrials ………………………. +0.23% 
  • Cyclical Cons. Goods ………….. +0.20% 
  • Telecommunications Srvcs …… +0.19%  
  • Healthcare ……………………….. +0.10%
  • Financials ………………………… +0.08% 
  • Real Estate .. ( 8/31/2016 ) …………. * tbd *
  • The Eleventh Sector for 2016: Real Estate
              ————————————
                                            ——

 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Thursday,8/18/2016

  II. a.  USA  Bonds
  • 3 Month  0.27%  -0.01 (-3.57%)
  • 6 Month  0.41%  -0.01 (-2.38%)
  •  2 Year  0.71%  -0.02 (-2.74%)
  •  5 Year  1.11%  -0.02 (-1.77%)
  • 10 Year  1.54%  -0.01 (-0.65%)
  • 30 Year  2.25%  +0.00 (+0.00%)
  II. b.  Currencies
  • AUD/USD .. 0.7635  -0.0043 (-0.56%)
  • EUR/USD .. 1.1334  -0.0014 (-0.12%)
  • GBP/USD .. 1.3142  -0.0020 (-0.15%)
  • USD/CAD .. 1.2807  +0.0030 (+0.24%)
  • USD/CNY .. 6.6441  +0.0308 (+0.47%)
  • USD/HKD .. 7.7539  +0.0000 (+0.00%)
  • USD/JPY   100.3300  +0.2005 (+0.20%)
II. c.   US Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

For both Bulls and Bears:

current XLE quote (Reuters) and more

Related previous XLE analysis:

  II. e.    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
 Remaining 2016  meetings:    ( FOMC  Calendar & info )
  • July 26-27                        ( as expected, no rate increase  )
  • September 20-21*        ( work in progress )
  • November 1-2
  • December 13-14*
* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Fed Chairperson  Ms. J. Yellen.
  • –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
  • –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

  III.  Index Support and Resistance for Friday, 8/19/2016

 Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  See  below for Section IV. Index “projected” Highs and Lows for today’s day and date.  See Section V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015) to track changes in this info.  See the 200 day simple moving average (sma200) calculations added to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma50),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
:: If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
:: If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
:: Please Note:   ALL projections are for reference only as they can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
dji-nas-spx %c20160818d
Chart #2  (above, EOD, %change)  The above DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500, Daily Index chart reflects the percentage change since the first markets’ correction 8/21/2015.  Note:  EOD= End of Day
                 ——————
dji-djt %c20160818d
Chart #3  (above, EOD, %change)  The above DJIA versus the DJ Transports Average Index (DJT).  This  Daily Index chart reflects the percentage change since the first markets’ correction 8/21/2015.  Note:  EOD= End of Day. 
                 ——————
( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
Closed 8/18 up  @  18,597.70  +23.76  (+0.13%)
:: Closed  (above 8/18 PP)  (above 8/19 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   18577.27
  •   Support (s1)  18553.72       Support (s2)   18509.74
  •   Resistance (r1)   18621.25   Resistance (r2)   18644.80
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    18184.17       (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +7.20%  YTD performance  +6.73%
( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
Closed 8/18 up  @    5,240.15  +11.49  (+0.22%)
:: Closed   (above 8/18 PP)  (above 8/19 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  5235.05
  •   Support (s1)   5226.94      Support (s2) 5213.72
  •   Resistance (r1)  5248.27    Resistance (r2)  5256.38
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  5009.54          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +7.44%    YTD performance  +4.65%
( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
Closed 8/18 up  @   2,187.02   +4.80  (+0.22%)
:: Closed   (above 8/18 PP)  (above 8/19 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  2184.84
  •   Support (s1)  2182.64        Support (s2)  2178.27
  •   Resistance (r1)  2189.21     Resistance (r2)  2191.41
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  2133.27         (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +7.43%  YTD performance  +7.00%
rui-rua-rut %c20160818d
Chart #4  (above, EOD, %change)  The above Russell 3000, Russell 2000, Russell 1000, daily Index chart reflects the percentage change since the first markets’ correction 8/21/2015.
         ———————————–
( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI) (ETF: IWD)
Closed 8/18 up  @  1,211.20   +3.08  (+0.26%)
:: Closed   (above 8/18 PP)  (above 8/19 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1209.90
  •   Support (s1)  1208.60      Support (s2)  1206.00
  •   Resistance (r1)  1212.50   Resistance (r2)  1213.80
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1180.88          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +4.40%   YTD performance  +7.01%
( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
Closed 8/18 up  @  1,236.85   +9.17  (+0.75%)
:: Closed  (above 8/18 PP)  (above 8/19 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1233.71
  •   Support (s1)   1230.56      Support (s2)   1224.28
  •   Resistance (r1)  1239.99    Resistance (r2)  1243.14
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1187.61          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +2.82%    YTD performance   +8.89%
( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA)
Closed 8/18 up   @  1,292.27   +3.76  (+0.29%)
:: Closed   (above 8/18 PP)  (above 8/19 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)   1290.78
  •   Support (s1)   1289.28     Support (s2)  1286.30
  •   Resistance (r1)  1293.76   Resistance (r2)  1295.26
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1258.06          (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance   +9.87%    YTD performance  +7.14%
tnx %c20160818d
Chart #5  (above, EOD, %change)  The above CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note , daily Index chart reflects the percentage change since the first markets correction 8/21/2015.
  ————————–
( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
Closed 8/18 down  @   15.36   -0.25  (-1.60%)
:: Closed   (below 8/18 PP)  (below 8/19 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    15.42
  •   Support (s1)    15.19      Support (s2)  15.01
  •   Resistance (r1)  15.60     Resistance (r2)  15.83
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  15.44          (downtrend)
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  18.88          (downtrend)
  •   :: Close (157 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  (-3.516) pts., or (-18.626%)
  •   :: 52 week performance  -26.30%   YTD performance  -32.30%
vix %c20160818d
Chart #6  (above, EOD, %change)  The above Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX), daily Index chart reflects the percentage change since the first markets’ correction 8/21/2015.
                       ————————-
( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
Closed 8/18 down  @  11.43   -0.76  (-6.23%)
:: Closed  (below 8/18 PP)  (below 8/19 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)    11.79
  •   Support (s1)    11.06      Support (s2)   10.68
  •   Resistance (r1)  12.17     Resistance (r2)  12.90
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  14.81         (downtrend)
  •   :: 52 week performance   -59.22%   YTD performance  -37.23%
  •     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

 IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Friday, 8/19/2016

  • Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
  •   Dow Jones …. 18633.03  …  18565.50
  •   Nasdaq……..  5252.33  …   5231.00
  •   S&P 500 ……  2190.31  …   2183.74
  •   Russell 1000 .  1213.15  …   1209.25
  •   Russell 2000 .  1241.57  …   1232.14
  •   Russell 3000 .  1294.51  …   1290.03
  •   CBOE TNX ……   15.51  …     15.10
  •   Volatility …    11.98  …     10.87
 V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/15)
  • DJI Avg   ..  18668.44 ..  15370.33 .. (17425.03)  n/c
  • Nasdaq …..   5271.36 ..   4209.76 ..  (5007.41)  n/c
  • S&P 500 ….   2193.81 ..   1810.10 ..  (2043.94)  n/c
  •   ——————————————-
  • Rus 1k (RUI)   1215.50 ..    995.55 ..  (1069.65)  n/c
  • Rus 2k (RUT)   1243.83 ..    943.10 ..  (1135.89)  n/c
  • Rus 3k (RUA)   1297.02 ..   1056.45 ..  (1206.10)  n/c
  • CBOE (TNX) ….. 23.77 …    13.36 …   (22.69)  n/c
  • Volatility(VIX)  53.29 …    11.02 …   (18.21)  n/c
  •    —     —     —     —     —     —   
  •   n/c* =no change  c-* =changed lower  c+* =changed higher

-–  Monday, 8/15/2016   thru    Friday 8/19/2016  ——

 

Hope the above Index Support and Resistance calculations for Friday, 8/19/2016  help your investing and trading planning today …

this post will be updated with a whole lot more to follow ….

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