Index Support and Resistance for Friday, 8/21/2015

The above Index Support and Resistance for Friday, 8/21/2015  is not a typo.   I have my archives, notes, databases, spreadsheets,  charts … and more which allows me to look back at any time frame of my choosing; as an example:  at August 2015’s 3rd Friday of the month options expiry … and … compare the global and domestic, geo-political and economic setup heading into that day’s trading versus the setup heading into this past Friday’s 8/19/2016 day of trading.

   This is some of  what I wrote in my notes heading into Friday 8/21/2015:

  While we were sleeping, (some of us any way)  world stock markets pulled back  … heading towards their worst week of the year on their Friday.   Commodities got another trashing, as more cause for concern surrounds data from China sending investors and traders scurrying to the safety of bonds and gold.   Fears of a China-led deceleration in global growth has shifted  “sentiment” to Strongly Bearish.

 China

  The data from China showed its giant manufacturing sector slowing at the fastest pace since the depths of the global markets meltdown financial crisis in 2009.  This slowing is apparently confirming Gloom and Doom articles expressing worries about China’s economic health, and growth,  that have been topic of discussion and debate for months.
   No stone unturned, Emerging market assets saw investors and traders rushing to the exits.  Crude oil prices were on track for their longest losing streak since 1986.
  Tracking markets, East to West,  as major developed economy markets opened, they were increasingly being dragged into the sell-off.  USA’s Wall Street was expected to open firmly in red again later having already lost more than 2.5 percent this week.
  • Shanghai                    3,507.74  -156.55 (-4.27%)
  • Nikkei 225                19,435.83  -597.69 (-2.98%)
  • Hang Seng Index  22,409.62  -347.85 (-1.53%)
I.   Index performance Thursday, 8/20/2015
  • Dow Jones    16,990.69  0.00  (0.00%)
  • S&P 500           2,035.73  0.00  (0.00%)
    Nasdaq            4,877.49  0.00  (0.00%)
  • Russell 1000  1,134.88  -25.24 (-2.18%)    
  • Russell 2000   1,172.52 -30.46 (-2.53%) 
  • Russell 3000  1,212.02  –27.31 (-2.20%)   
  • CBOE TNX    20.73  -0.11 (-0.53%)
 I. b. Sector summary from Thursday, 8/20/2015
 
Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)

 

  • Utilities …………………………….. -0.84%    
  • Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods  …….. -0.97%  
  • Basic Materials …………………….  -1.11% 
  • Telecommunications Srvcs  …….. -1.37%    
  • Financials  …………………………. -2.06% 
  • Industrials …………………………. -2.21%
  • Energy ………………………………. -2.24%  
  • Healthcare …………………………  -2.49% 
  • Technology ………………………… -2.58% 
  • Cyclical Cons. Goods …………….. -2.72% 

 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Thursday,  8/20/2015

  • Bonds
  • 3 Month  0.01%  -0.02 (-66.67%)
  • 6 Month  0.19%  -0.01 (-5.00%)
  •  2 Year  0.65%  0.00 (0.00%)
  •  5 Year  1.47%  -0.03 (-2.00%)
  • 10 Year  2.07%  -0.04 (-1.90%)
  • 30 Year  2.74%  -0.04 (-1.44%)

 

———————-

 Fast forward to 3rd Friday of August 2016

That was then, this is now,   China, a year later, is showing signs of an economic recovery in progress … with more to do.     China devalued its currency.  China bought baskets of its countries stocks supporting stock prices.  China has employed Quantitative Easing (QE) on more than one occasion.    While Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets grumbled, moaned, and groaned about China’s currency devaluation … they “love” other steps taken by China …

 

PROs and CONs:   So, no “China themed” global markets geo-political correction necessary, last week or next week, and that suggests that no USA markets geo-political correction necessary either.    Preliminary analysis suggests the Bears should be happy with their minor victory Friday …. take partial profits, set capital conserving stops, watch pre-markets E-mini futures trading,  and rush to cover their bets before their profits evaporate.    Of course, it’s their money, to do with as “they” see fit.

 

That said, we all STILL have to do our home work for Monday.   Russia is still meddling in the Ukraine.  ISIS, despite the pounding, is still a huge threat to destabilize the Middle East.   The Brexit vote taken in the United Kingdom (UK), to depart the European Union (EU), is beginning to look like a positive for the UK, and a wash for the EU.

  Crude in 2016 to 2020

Saudi Arabia has seen the future:  In light of global warming and alternative energy setting the tone for reduced demand for crude oil … and has correctly begun to set its peoples on a path to a future with diminishing jobs in the Saudi crude oil sector.   Venezuela needs to kick the Socialist political system supported by crude oil income to the curb.  Saudi Arabia’s push, with OPEC’s help, to “pump ’til you drop” has left Venezuela without monies for its Socialist budget … and NO MONIES  for crude industry cap-ex.  So, when the current wells run dry, and they will, the Venezuela people will be facing a grim future.   Chavez’s appropriation of foreign business assets was a really bad idea.  No one is going to bring badly needed new investment into Venezuela with a “sticky fingered” government highly like to take those assets ….

Iran, every bit a threat to Middle East stability as is ISIS, is highly dependent on crude oil revenues  to support its economy … as well as its Middle East, and global political and religious agenda.   In a future with diminishing needs for crude oil … Iran’s peoples are no less at RISK than are the Venezuela people.

Libya, Nigeria, … all have to wake up and smell the coffee … because change is coming.

 

-–  Monday, 8/15/2016   thru    Friday 8/19/2016  ——

 

If you want to see what the Index Support and Resistance for Friday, 8/21/2015  calculations were, for Friday, or ANY day a year ago … leave me a note in the comments bellow …  

 

 

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