Index Support and Resistance for Wednesday (8/24/2016)

 

  So, today’s trading is about (a) the FED “talking” about raising rates again ** and ** (b) about a “surprise” build in crude oil on hand supplies.
But wait, let’s take (b) first, for those of us that listened, actually listened, to the DHT Holdings Inc. (DHT) financial call and especially the Q&A (question and answer) period that followed … we heard analyst questions about prospective interest in using DHT tankers to store crude at sea.  Contango players are not going to give up free money.  Contango players represent “demand” by buying crude, taking possession, transporting, and holding crude on ships, or stuffing crude into pipelines on its way into storage at Cushing … then selling the futures.   Until such time as Contango game is over … that crude oil is Collateral, NOT SUPPLY.   Let’s not forget geo-political risks that have served to knock supply out … production interruptions from Libya and Nigeria.  We STILL have unanswered questions about OPEC’s production “reporting” that can NOT be confirmed by second sources …  Plus, OPEC’s prolonged “pump till we drop” (Saudi Arabia’s) strategy has left less fortunate OPEC member countries like Venezuela unable to have enough crude revenues to meet its Socialist budget … let alone spend money on necessary cap-ex ….   That lack of cap-ex spending is going to impact future crude prices as production starts to drop off.  Any pick up in demand … that will begin to force a drawdown supplies from storage.

  As to (a), IMHO, and it’s just my own homework based opinion, with the FED looking for a 2 percent inflation target, as well as the other pieces of the puzzle falling into place for the USA economy, keeping in mind that some USA communities are doing good to even great, and yes there are some communities doing poorly, … over the next 6 months to one year time frame, the 10 year should be at 2.2% and the 30 year at 3.15% the FED needs to raise rates sooner, not later, … and I won’t be “blindsided” if FED Chairperson J. Yellen says so Friday … b’cuz, I believe the FED chatter is not so much targeted at Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets … as the FED chatter is being directed at global Central Banks …

         ————————————

  Higher Highs and Higher Lows

 Yesterday, the Nasdaq Comp (NAS, .INIC) posted new year to date (YTD) highs for the OPEN, the High, and the LOW … the new YTD high was also a new 52 week high at 5275.74

  The S&P 500 Index (SPX, .INX) posted new year to date (YTD) highs for the OPEN, and the LOW.

  The Russell 1000 Index (RUI, .RUI) posted a new year to date (YTD) high for the LOW at 1210.03 points.

  The Russell 2000 Index (RUT, .RUT) posted new year to date (YTD) highs for the High (1251.33), Low (1240.6), and Close (1248.58) and … the new YTD high was also a new 52 week high.

  The Russell 3000 Index (RUA, .RUA) posted new year to date (YTD) highs for the High (1297.26) and Low (1292.73)  and … the new YTD high was also a new 52 week high.

         ————————————

  Below you will find the Index Support and Resistance for Wednesday, 8/24/2016 as calculated from the changes in Index points through Tuesday, 8/23/2016’s close.    See  below for Section IV. Index “projected” Highs and Lows for today’s day and date.

         ————————————

 I.   Index performance Tuesday, 8/23/2016

• Dow Jones    18,547.30  +17.88  (+0.10%)    (chart: blue)
• Nasdaq  …     5,260.08  +15.48  (+0.30%)    (chart: gold)
• S&P 500 …     2,186.90   +4.26  (+0.20%)    (chart: red )
•   ——————————————-
• DJ Trans Avg  7,923.40  +28.63  (+0.36%)
• Rus 1k (RUI)  1,211.83   +2.73  (+0.23%)
• Rus 2k (RUT)  1,248.58   +8.84  (+0.71%)
• Rus 3k (RUA)  1,293.82   +3.38  (+0.26%)
• CBOE (TNX)       15.53   +0.14  (+0.91%)
• Volatility(VIX)  12.38   +0.11  (+0.90%)

 I. b. Sector summary from Tuesday, 8/23/2016

Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)

• Basic Materials …………………. +0.77%
• Energy ……………………………. +0.48%
• Cyclical Cons. Goods ………….. +0.44%
• Technology ……………………… +0.43%
• Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods …… +0.38%
• Financials …………………… +0.32%
• Industrials ………………….. +0.24%
• Healthcare …………………… +0.12%
• Telecommunications Srvcs ………. -0.03%
• Utilities ……………………. -0.29%
• Real Estate .. ( 8/31/2016 ) ………….. * tbd *
• The Eleventh Sector for 2016: Real Estate
• ————————————
                 ——

 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Tuesday, 8/23/2016

  II. a.  USA  Bonds

• 3 Month  0.29%  +0.00 (+0.00%)
• 6 Month  0.43%  -0.01 (-2.27%)
•  2 Year  0.73%  -0.01 (-1.35%)
•  5 Year  1.13%  -0.01 (-0.88%)
• 10 Year  1.55%  +0.00 (+0.00%)
• 30 Year  2.22%  +0.00 (+0.00%)

  II. b.  Currencies

• AUD/USD .. 0.7613  +0.0001 (+0.01%)
• EUR/USD .. 1.1301  +0.0000 (+0.00%)
• GBP/USD .. 1.3180  -0.0016 (-0.12%)
• USD/CAD .. 1.2923  +0.0002 (+0.02%)
• USD/CNY .. 6.6479  +0.0068 (+0.10%)
• USD/HKD .. 7.7537  +0.0002 (+0.00%)
• USD/JPY  100.3150  +0.0190 (+0.02%)

 II. c.    US Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

• Petroleum & Other Liquids

• Weekly Supply Estimates
• This Week in Petroleum
• Crude oil storage and capacity have increased in Cushing, Oklahoma and U.S. Gulf Coast

For both Bulls and Bears:

current XLE quote (Reuters) and more

Related previous XLE analysis:

• SELECT SECTOR SPDR ENERGY FUND (XLE) (d-w-m) (p2)
• SELECT SECTOR SPDR ENERGY FUND (XLE) d/w/m
• –      –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

  II. e.    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

    Note:     Chairperson Ms. J. Yellen will be speaking Friday.  

 Remaining 2016  meetings:    ( FOMC  Calendar & info )

• July 26-27                        ( as expected, no rate increase  )
• September 20-21*        ( work in progress )

• November 1-2
• December 13-14*

* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Fed Chairperson  Ms. J. Yellen.

• –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
• –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

 III.  Index Support and Resistance for Wednesday, 8/24/2016

 Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  See  below for Section IV. Index “projected” Highs and Lows for today’s day and date.  See Section V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015) to track changes in this info.  See the 200 day simple moving average (sma200) calculations added to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma50),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
:: If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
:: If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
:: Please Note:   ALL projections are for reference only as they can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.

     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
Closed 8/23 up  @  18,547.30  +17.88  (+0.10%)
:: Closed   (above 8/23 PP)  (below 8/24 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)   18574.81
•   Support (s1)  18518.01       Support (s2)   18488.73
•   Resistance (r1)   18604.09   Resistance (r2)   18660.89
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    18225.09       (uptrend)
•   52 week performance  +16.86%  YTD performance  +6.44%

( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
Closed 8/23 up  @    5,260.08  +15.48  (+0.30%)
:: Closed   (above 8/23 PP)  (below 8/24 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)  5264.57
•   Support (s1)   5253.41      Support (s2) 5246.73
•   Resistance (r1)  5271.25    Resistance (r2)  5282.41
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  5030.37          (uptrend)
•   52 week performance  +16.72%   YTD performance  +5.05%

( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
Closed 8/23 up  @   2,186.90   +4.26  (+0.20%)
:: Closed   (above 8/23 PP)  (below 8/24 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)  2189.04
•   Support (s1)  2184.66        Support (s2)  2182.42
•   Resistance (r1)  2191.28     Resistance (r2)  2195.66
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  2138.53         (uptrend)
•   52 week performance  +17.10%   YTD performance  +6.99%

( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI) (ETF: IWD)
Closed 8/23 up  @  1,211.83   +2.73  (+0.23%)
:: Closed   (above 8/23 PP)  (below 8/24 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)   1212.37
•   Support (s1)  1209.49      Support (s2)  1207.15
•   Resistance (r1)  1214.71   Resistance (r2)  1217.59
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1183.82          (uptrend)
•   52 week performance  +14.72%   YTD performance  +7.06%

( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
Closed 8/23 up  @  1,248.58   +8.84  (+0.71%)
:: Closed  (above 8/23 PP)  (above 8/24 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)  1246.84
•   Support (s1)   1242.34      Support (s2)   1236.11
•   Resistance (r1)  1253.07    Resistance (r2)  1257.57
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1192.20          (uptrend)
•   52 week performance  +12.31%    YTD performance   +9.92%

( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA)
Closed 8/23 up   @  1,293.82   +3.38  (+0.26%)
:: Closed   (above 8/23 PP)  (below 8/24 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)   1294.60
•   Support (s1)   1291.95     Support (s2)  1290.07
•   Resistance (r1)  1296.48   Resistance (r2)  1299.13
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1260.85          (uptrend)
•   52 week performance   +11.88%    YTD performance  +7.27%

( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
Closed 8/23 up  @   15.53   +0.14  (+0.91%)
:: Closed   (above 8/23 PP)  (above 8/24 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)    15.48
•   Support (s1)    15.32      Support (s2)  15.12
•   Resistance (r1)  15.68     Resistance (r2)  15.84
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  15.38          (downtrend)
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  18.78          (downtrend)
•   :: Close (160 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  (-3.250) pts., or (-17.305%)
•   :: 52 week performance  -27.19%   YTD performance  -31.56%

( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
Closed 8/23 up  @  12.38   +0.11  (+0.90%)
:: Closed  (below 8/23 PP)  (above 8/24 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)    12.18
•   Support (s1)    11.92      Support (s2)   11.46
•   Resistance (r1)  12.64     Resistance (r2)  12.90
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  14.35         (downtrend)
•   :: 52 week performance   -59.17%   YTD performance  -32.02%
•     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

 IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Wednesday, 8/24/2016

• Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
•   Dow Jones …. 18589.45  …  18503.37
•   Nasdaq……..  5267.91  …   5250.07
•   S&P 500 ……  2190.16  …   2183.54
•   Russell 1000 .  1216.15  …   1210.93
•   Russell 2000 .  1255.32  …   1244.59
•   Russell 3000 .  1297.81  …   1293.28
•   CBOE TNX ……   15.58  …     15.22
•   Volatility …    12.77  …     12.05

 V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/15)

• DJI Avg   ..  18668.44 ..  15370.33 .. (17425.03)  n/c
• Nasdaq …..   5275.74 c+   4209.76 ..  (5007.41)  c+*
• S&P 500 ….   2193.81 ..   1810.10 ..  (2043.94)  n/c
•   ——————————————-
• Rus 1k (RUI)   1215.50 ..    995.55 ..  (1069.65)  n/c
• Rus 2k (RUT)   1251.33 c+    943.10 ..  (1135.89)  c+*
• Rus 3k (RUA)   1297.26 c+   1056.45 ..  (1206.10)  c+*
• CBOE (TNX) ….. 23.77 …    13.36 …   (22.69)  n/c
• Volatility(VIX)  35.62 c-.    11.02 …   (18.21)  c-*
•    —     —     —     —     —     —
•   n/c* =no change  c-* =changed lower  c+* =changed higher

-–  Monday, 8/22/2016   thru    Friday 8/26/2016  ——

 

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    • Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 8/8/2016
    • Index Support and Resistance for Tuesday, 8/9/2016
    •  Index Support and Resistance for Wednesday, 8/10/2016
    • Index Support and Resistance for Thursday, 8/11/2016
    • Index Support and Resistance for Friday, 8/12/2016
    • Index Support and Resistance for Monday, 8/15/2016
    • Index Support and Resistance for Tuesday, 8/16/2016
    • Index Support and Resistance for Wednesday, 8/17/2016
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Hope the above Index Support and Resistance calculations for Wednesday, 8/24/2016  help your investing and trading planning today …