Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P) (d-w-m) for Tuesday (9/6/2016)

 

  Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P) (d-w-m) for Tuesday (9/6/2016)
From Friday 9/2/2016 the closing price was $69.04  +0.67 (+0.98%).
     Monday, the USA markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday.  Extended weekends are great for conducting additional analysis, building new databases, spreadsheets, charts, … and back testing both new and hundreds of old indicators to see if Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets trading activities are changing over time … making a different set of indicators more relevant than the current setup.
Hot off the presses: 
  USA Exploration and Production companies  in the Energy Sector, along with their employees and stockholders, are suffering as crude oil has been under economic warfare attack by a Saudi Arabia led OPEC.  A big chunk of Saudi Arabia’s production, as I recently learned, is being shipped to leased storage in China and Japan.  As a gage of demand, Saudi Arabia, having previously shown a preference for long term crude supply contracts, … sold crude to the spot market.   Let’s see, Saudi Arabia is paying for shipping, … and storage of unsold, un-contracted, crude oil … that Saudi Arabia wants to use as leverage to keep China and Japan from buying from competitors.    Interesting!
China, with 1.4 billion people,  has stated it wants a 100 day Strategic Petroleum Reserve (China SPR).  Consider this, the USA w/340 million people, has a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (US SPR) at approximately 35 days.  The USA currently has a Commercial Crude Supply of about 32 days.  The USA appears to have the greatest underground “recoverable” reserves of crude and Nat Gas on the planet.  The US government has no economic reason, or need,  to expand the US SPR.
We do not yet know what China’s goals, or motives,  are for its vision of a China Commercial Crude Supply.  We do know China has been allowing domestic companies to build crude supplies and export refined petroleum products. Saudi Arabia clearly wants to be a preferred producer in China’s SPR and Commercial crude supply planning.

  I.   PROs and CONs  To be Considered:

  Globally, nations, governments, and commercial enterprises are expanding pipelines and storage of crude and Nat Gas.  This expansion of storage  exceeds historical norms but appears to be moving the historical norms bar … HIGHER!   We went through a 2007 -2008 global financial markets melt down that IMHO, was triggered by $149/barrel crude, but also by fundamentally, strategically, and economically, flawed “just in time” deliveries of crude, insufficient stored crude and refined petroleum stocks,  that led to an unsustainable crude prices above $100 per barrel.  In addition, Exploration and Production net exporting countries and governments have REPEATEDLY   used crude revenues to support terrorist activities.  Globally, we are paying the price for not moving to expand the on hand storage of commercial crude, Nat Gas, and refined petroleum stocks … sooner.
  What the talking heads and the crude analysts do not get, is every dollar of discretionary funds, above the domestic budgetary needs of Middle Eastern countries like Iran, is heading to Hamas, ISIS, and any other group Iran sees as “expendable” in  achieving Iran’s regional and global political ambitions.  It is in our global best interests to continue to expand domestic crude production and crude storage, to lower long term crude prices to the point where there is no extra crude revenues monies heading to support terrorist organizations.  Globally, we should look to a strategically, fundamentally, and “economically sustainable”  crude price range of $50 to $75 per barrel and US domestic Cap-ex spending “planning” should be based on not more than $50 per barrel crude.   
 AND:

  II.    US Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

For both Bulls and Bears:

current XLE quote (Reuters) and more

Related previous XLE analysis:

That said, …. now to the charts:

Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P) (NYSE ARCA: XLE)

  Analysis of Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P) Daily, Weekly, Monthly, (d-w-m) chart activity through Friday’s (9/2/2016) close at    $69.04  +0.67 (0.98%)
The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered.  If already holding long positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to 67.78.   Traders with remaining long positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of 67.78.   Be prepared for a potential short term price pull back to the 68.80 area.
   Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
If Long, exit all contracts at …     67.78
If Short, exit all contracts at …     70.92
—–
xle 20160902d
 Chart #1 (above, Daily, PP-Sup-Res) Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P)
            ———————————-
( 3.d) For the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P)
Closed 9/2  up  @   69.04  +0.67
:: Closed  (above 9/2 PP)  (above 9/6 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  68.98
  •   Support (s1)  68.71        Support (s2)  68.38
  •   Resistance (r1)  69.31     Resistance (r2)  69.57
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   68.23         (uptrend)
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close 200):  63.73         (uptrend)
  •   52 week performance  +  %  YTD performance  +  %
Additional Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P)  DAILY chart info:
  • Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
  • Short term: Prices are stalling.
  • Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.
  • By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 67.55.
  • The upper projected target is: 71.67.
  • The lower projected target is: 66.41.
  • The projected closing price is: 69.04.
Note: these price projections are calculated from previous trading activity and therefore for reference only, and can be easily exceeded, up or down,  by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.  Sorry, past performance is no guarantee of future similar results.
 —————–
 —————–
xle 20160902w
 Chart #2 (above, Weekly, PP-Sup-Res) Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P)
            ———————————-
( 3.w) For the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P)
Closed 9/2  weekly down  @   69.04  -0.37
:: Closed   (above 9/2 PP)  (above 9/9 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  69.03
  •   Support (s1)  67.79        Support (s2)  66.54
  •   Resistance (r1)  70.28     Resistance (r2)  71.52
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close sma50):    64.30         (uptrend)
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close sma200):   77.83        (down trend)
Additional Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P) Weekly chart info:
  • Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
  • Short term: Prices are stalling.
  • Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
  • Note (1): this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
  • Note (2): prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 67.58.
  • The upper projected target is: 74.94.
  • The lower projected target is: 63.38.
  • The projected closing price is: 69.16.
Note: these price projections are calculated from previous trading activity and therefore for reference only, and can be easily exceeded, up or down,  by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.  Sorry, past performance is no guarantee of future similar results.
 —————–
xle 20160902m
 Chart #3 (above, Monthly, PP-Sup-Res) Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P)
            ———————————-
( 3.m) For the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P)
Closed 9/2 up  @   69.04  +0.50
:: Closed   (above 8/31 PP)  (above 9/30 PP)
  •   :: Pivot point (PP)  68.69
  •   Support (s1)  68.13        Support (s2)  67.22
  •   Resistance (r1)  69.60     Resistance (r2)  70.15
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close sma50):    77.34         (uptrend)
  •   Simple Moving Average (Close sma200):   55.30         (uptrend)
Additional Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P) Monthly chart info:
  • Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
  • Short term: Prices are moving.
  • Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
  • Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
  • By the way, prices are vulnerable to a RALLY towards 72.65.
  • The upper projected target is: 79.97.
  • The lower projected target is: 58.09.
  • The projected closing price is: 69.03.
Note: these price projections are calculated from previous trading activity and therefore for reference only, and can be easily exceeded, up or down,  by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.  Sorry, past performance is no guarantee of future similar results.
               ———————————

Monday, 9/5/2016   thru    Friday 9/9/2016  ——

Hope the above  Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.P) (NYSE ARCA: XLE) Support and Resistance calculations for Tuesday (9/6/2016) help your investing and trading planning today …

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