Super Bowl LI (51)

The path to Super Bowl LI (51) started with 12 teams.  None of the Wild Card teams the Oakland Raiders, the Miami Dolphins, the NY Giants, and the Detroit Lions survived Wild Card Weekend leaving their hopeful fans devastated.

Then there were eight teams left for the Divisional Playoffs. The Seattle Seahawks, the Houston Texans, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Dallas Cowboys lost.   The devastation for the Dallas Cowboys fans is a purportedly a game outcome altering wrongfully called 15 yard penalty early in the game that snuffed a 22 yard completion that would have put the Cowboys at the Green Bay 16 yard line instead of punting a couple of plays later from their 48 yard line.   Ouch!

Then there were four teams left for the Conference Playoffs.  The Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburg Steelers lost.  Devastation for their fans as having come so close.

Now there are two teams left standing ….   and only one can win.

My homework   for Super Bowl 51 (LI) potential outcome ….

  • Analyze and compare Reg. Season & Playoff game performance metrics
    Team stats:  Offense, Defense, Special Teams …
    w/Individual player stats and more to follow …
  •    —  Texas tussle: Patriots, Falcons face off in Super Bowl LI  (51)
    To be played in Houston (NRG Stadium) Feb 5, 2017
    As of 9:00 AM ET 1/24/2017 :  in     12 days  9 hours 30 minutes

 

     Atlanta (ATL) Falcons vs New England (NE) Patriots

Total Offense (ypg)
  •     ATL Falcons  [11-5-0]   415.8 (2d)    540 Tot pts  33.8 pts/gm (1st)
  •      NE Patriots  [14-2-0]  386.2 (4th)   441 Tot pts  27.6 pts/gm (3rd)
Passing (ypg)     
  •     ATL Falcons   295.3 (3d)  [374 of 537 (69.6%), 33.6 att/g, 4725 yds, 9.2 yds/att]
  •      NE Patriots    269.2 (4th)  [368 of 550 (66.9%), 33.6 att/g, 4308 yds, 8.1yds/att]
Rushing (ypg)    
  •     ATL Falcons   120.5 (5th)  [421 attempts, 26.3 att/g, 1928 yds, 4.6 yds/att]
  •      NE Patriots    117.0 (7th)  [482 attempts, 30.1 att/g, 1872 yds, 3.9 yds/att]
Total Defense (ypg)
  •   ATL Falcons  1059 plays (27th)  371.2 yds/gm  406 pts  25.4 pts/gm
  •    NE Patriots    998 plays  (1st)  326.4 yds/gm   250 pts  15.6pts/gm

Passing defense (ypg)

  •    ATL Falcons (27th)
  •                  [422 of 625 (64.4%), 40.9 att/g, 4267 yds, 266.7 yds/gm,  6.9 yds/att]
  •    NE Patriots  (1st)
  •                  [368 of 596 (61.7%), 37.2 att/g, 3806 yds, 237.9 yds/gm,  6.8 yds/att]
Rushing defense (ypg)
  •    ATL Falcons (27th)  15 TDs (18th)
  •                    [370 attempts, 23.1 att/g, 1672 yds, 104.5 yds/gm,  4.5 yds/att]
  •      NE Patriots (1st)   6 TDs (1st)
  •                    [368 attempts, 23.0 att/g, 1417 yds, 88.6 yds/gm,  3.9 yds/att]

ATL Falcons Postseason Leaders

  • Passing:  Player,  Att, Cmp, Cmp%, Yds, TDs
  •  Matt Ryan  75, 53, 70.67%, 730, 7
  • Rushing: Player, Car, Yds, Avg, TDs
  •  Devonta Freeman 28, 87, 3.1, 1
  •  Tevin Coleman 22, 86, 3.9, 1
  • Receiving: Player, Rec, Yds, Avg, TDs
  •  Julio Jones 15, 247, 16.5, 3
  • Devonta Freeman 8, 122, 15.3, 1
  • Mohamed Sanu 9, 96, 10.7, 2
  • Taylor Gabriel 6, 95, 15.8, 0

 NE Patriots  Postseason Leaders

  • Passing:  Player,  Att, Cmp, Cmp%, Yds, TDs
  • Tom Brady 80, 50, 62.5%, 671, 5
  • Rushing: Player, Car, Yds, Avg, TDs
  • LeGarrette Blount 24, 78, 3.3, 1
  • Dion Lewis 19, 52, 2.7, 1
  • Receiving: Player, Rec, Yds, Avg, TDs
  • Chris Hogan 13, 275, 21.2, 2
  • Julian Edelman 16, 255, 15.9, 1
  • Martellus Bennett 6, 36, 6, 0
  • Dion Lewis 4, 31, 7.8, 1

 

My Notes:  Offense is the BEST defense.

Based on my analysis to this point:
  •  Falcons offense is really GOOD! and will seek to wear down the Patriots defense   … but the Falcons defense is mediocre to just FAIR!  Falcons defense gave up 15 rushing TDs, …  New Orleans Saints scored 32 pts in each of its two games against the Falcons,  in weeks 3 and 17 … and still LOST!  Tampa Bay scored 31 pts in week 1 on Falcons home turf, and WON by holding the Falcons to 24 pts.
  •  New England Patriots DEFENSE can, could be, will be the difference in this Super Bowl LI (51st).  Patriots need to slow down the Falcons offense by controlling the ball and the clock, with runs, passes, seeking 1st downs, with drives of 10 to 12 plays tiring out the Falcons defense which should open up 20+ passing yards opportunities downfield in the 2nd and 4th quarters, …  thereby keeping Matt Ryan on the sidelines as a spectator.
 At this Time, the projected scoring is
  •          Atlanta Falcons   …  24   (3 passing TDS, 1 field goal)
  •           NE Patriots ……….  31    (3 passing TDS, 1 rushing TD, 1 field goal)
There’s more … more homework to do.
Like getting a second, and even a third opinion …
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One thought on “Super Bowl LI (51)

  1. It was not pretty. The New England Patriots overcame a 25-point third-quarter deficit to STUN the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in the first-ever overtime Super Bowl. As I pointed out above, wear out the defense, keep QB Matt Ryan off the field and on the bench … win the game.

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