Micron Tech (MU.O) 3rd Friday of the Month Option Expiry

Updated for Monday 7/24/2017    [Friday, 7/21/2017 (pivot point: $31.81) ]

Many people question if a sizable number of options expiring on Friday options expiry can ‘manipulate’ a company’s stock price. There are terms bandied about like ‘Max Pain’ and ‘options pinning’. Electric Phred authored an informative and entertaining Seeking Alpha article “Will The Options Tail Wag The $35 Billion Micron Technology Dog?” explaining those terms and so, for the rest of the story,  may I suggest openning that article in a new tab or window.

 

In this blog, I am using some of the data and tools from my homework, like pivot points, supports (s1, s2), resistances (r1, r2), and projected highs and lows, which you can find posted in my Support and Resistance monthlies, let’s look at Micron’s month-to-month performance during the week ending with 3rd Friday of the month options expiry in 2017. Keep in mind options are used by both Bulls and Bears, and by those looking to hedge to mitigate known, and unknown risks.  For those that want to do their own homework, I am using comma separated values in the tables below. Feel free to start your own spreadsheets.  This one blog will updated thru the 3rd Friday of the month expiry in December 2017 to serve as a reference.  If this helps, feel free to add a comment below.  

 

I. January 2017

Third Friday of the month expiry was January 20th. Monday, January 16th, the US markets were closed in rememberance of Martin Luther King Jr. Moon phase: last quarter began on January 19th. Note: January 17th, the close was lower than the open; however, each successive day, the close was higher than the open.

I.a. Date, Open, High, Low, Close, Vol (/100)

  • 1/17/2017, 21.88, 22.07, 21.58, 21.74, 200538
  • 1/18/2017, 21.68, 22.34, 21.53, 22.32, 194934
  • 1/19/2017, 21.50, 22.30, 21.49, 21.71, 312590
  • 1/20/2017, 21.90, 22.33, 21.89, 21.96, 199787

 

I.b. Date, projected High, actual high, projected low. actual low

  • 1/17/2017, 22.25, 22.07, 21.92, 21.58
  • 1/18/2017, 21.90, 22.34, 21.42, 21.53
  • 1/19/2017, 22.74, 22.30, 21.93, 21.49
  • 1/20/2017, 22.41, 22.33, 21.60, 21.89

I.c. Date, Pivot Point, Supports (s1, s2), Resistance (r1,r2), MU close

  • 1/17/2017, 22.16, 22.01, 21.83, 22.33, 22.48, 21.74
  • 1/18/2017, 21.80, 21.53, 21.31, 22.01, 22.28, 22.32
  • 1/19/2017, 22.06, 21.79, 21.25, 22.60, 22.87, 21.71
  • 1/20/2017, 21.83, 21.37, 21.02, 22.18, 22.64, 21.96

 

 In table I.b. Micron’s actual high posted above the projected high only once. From the above table I.c. we can see Micron closed below $22.00 and below the Pivot point on two days out of the four days constituting January’s 3rd Friday of the month expiry week. Micron closed above its pivot point on Tuesday, and Friday, 1/20/2017. Friday’s pivot point at $21.83, was only 17c below the 22 strike, so, chalk one up for the Bears.

 

II. February 2017.

Third Friday of the month expiry was February 17th. Moon phase: last quarter began on February 18th. Note: February 17th, the close was higher than the open; however, each previous day, the close was lower than the open. Also, the Friday close was above the pivot points for Tuesday thru Friday, but not the $23.50 strike; so, chalk this one up for BOTH the Bulls and Bears.

II.a. Date, Open, High, Low, Close, Vol (/100)

  • 2/13/2017, 24.07, 24.20, 23.82, 23.90, 168764
  • 2/14/2017, 23.36, 23.37, 22.68, 23.12, 606852
  • 2/15/2017, 23.07, 23.26, 22.79, 23.02, 282158
  • 2/16/2017, 23.04, 23.34, 22.85, 22.98, 238198
  • 2/17/2017, 23.01, 23.38, 23.01, 23.35, 221087

 

II.b. Date, projected High, actual high, projected low. actual low

  • 2/13/2017 24.41, 24.20, 23.55, 23.82
  • 2/14/2017 24.05, 23.37, 23.67, 22.68
  • 2/15/2017 23.25, 23.26, 22.56, 22.79
  • 2/16/2017 23.14, 23.34, 22.67, 22.85
  • 2/17/2017 23.16, 23.38, 22.67, 23.01

 

II.c. Date, Pivot Point, Supports (s1, s2), Resistance (r1,r2), MU close

  • 2/13/2017 24.24, 23.71, 23.38, 24.57, 25.10, 23.90
  • 2/14/2017 23.97, 23.75, 23.59, 24.13, 24.35, 23.12
  • 2/15/2017 23.06, 22.74, 22.37, 23.43, 23.75, 23.02
  • 2/16/2017 23.02, 22.79, 22.55, 23.26, 23.49, 22.98
  • 2/17/2017 23.06, 22.77, 22.57, 23.26, 23.55, 23.35

 

In table II.b. Micron’s actual high posted above the projected high three times … Wednesday thru Friday … here it appears the Bear’s target was to hold Micron’s pps below 23.50. From the above table II.c. we can see Micron closed below its pivot point four times, and above its pivot point once, the all important Friday expiry. However, thanks to the Bulls, Thursday’s intraday trading raised Friday’s pivot point 4c back to Wednesday’s PPt of 23.06 sending a message to anyone paying attention that the $23 strike was secure.

 

III. March 2017   QW*

Third Friday of the month expiry was March 17th. This was also the first Quadruple Witching (QW*)  expiry of 2017.  Also, a FOMC Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Fed Chairperson  Ms. J. Yellen took place only TWO days before expiry.  Moon phase: Interesting bracket, full moon began on March 12th which was also the ‘spring foward’ of US Daylight savings time and the moon’s last quarter began on March 20th.

 

III.a. Date, Open, High, Low, Close, Vol (/100)

  • 3/13/2017 25.39 25.82 25.29 25.70 237682
  • 3/14/2017 25.59 25.70 25.25 25.58 145875
  • 3/15/2017 25.15 26.15 24.94 26.12 297799
  • 3/16/2017 26.20 26.23 25.83 26.04 191473
  • 3/17/2017 25.86 25.91 25.40 25.80 191265

 

III.b. Date, projected High, actual high, projected low. actual low

  • 3/13/2017, 25.47, 25.82, 24.53, 25.29
  • 3/14/2017, 26.03, 25.70, 25.50, 25.25
  • 3/15/2017, 25.64, 26.15, 25.19, 24.94
  • 3/16/2017, 26.74, 26.23, 25.53, 25.83
  • 3/17/2017, 26.14, 25.91, 25.74, 25.40

 

III.c. Date, Pivot Point, Supports (s1, s2), Resistance (r1,r2), MU close

  • 3/13/2017, 25.25, 24.74, 24.31, 25.68, 26.19, 25.70
  • 3/14/2017, 25.60, 25.39, 25.07, 25.92, 26.13, 25.58
  • 3/15/2017, 25.51, 25.32, 25.06, 25.77, 25.96, 26.12
  • 3/16/2017, 25.74, 25.32, 24.52, 26.54, 26.95, 26.04
  • 3/17/2017, 26.03, 25.84, 25.63, 26.24, 26.43, 25.80

 

 In table III.b. Micron’s actual high posted above the projected high two times, Monday, and Wednesday. Micron closed above the pivot point three times. Clearly, the Bull/Bear battle was around the $26 strike. With Quadruple Witching it is clearly becoming obvious, the Bears are winning small skirmishes with the help of profit taking Bulls; but, are being pushed up a hill they do not wish to climb.

 

IV. April 2017.

Third Friday of the month expiry was April 21st. Moon phase: last quarter began on April 19th.

IV.a. Date, Open, High, Low, Close, Vol (/100)

  • 4/17/2017, 26.91, 27.22, 26.83, 27.13, 141086
  • 4/18/2017, 27.00, 27.34, 26.90, 27.14, 144071
  • 4/19/2017, 27.45, 27.55, 27.05, 27.26, 212319
  • 4/20/2017, 27.50, 28.08, 27.50, 27.96, 236330
  • 4/21/2017, 28.00, 28.03, 27.16, 27.32, 283617

 

IV.b. Date, projected High, actual high, projected low. actual low

  • 4/17/2017, 27.42, 27.220, 26.55, 26.830
  • 4/18/2017, 27.37, 27.340, 26.98, 26.900
  • 4/19/2017, 27.46, 27.550, 27.02, 27.050
  • 4/20/2017, 27.41, 28.080, 26.91, 27.500
  • 4/21/2017, 28.31, 28.030, 27.73, 27.160

 

IV.c. Date, Pivot Point, Supports (s1, s2), Resistance (r1,r2), MU close

  • 4/17/2017, 26.78, 26.32, 25.91, 27.19, 27.65, 27.130
  • 4/18/2017, 27.06, 26.90, 26.67, 27.29, 27.45, 27.140
  • 4/19/2017, 27.13, 26.91, 26.69, 27.35, 27.57, 27.260
  • 4/20/2017, 27.29, 27.02, 26.79, 27.52, 27.79, 27.960
  • 4/21/2017, 27.85, 27.61, 27.27, 28.19, 28.43, 27.320

 

In table IV.b. Micron’s actual high posted above the projected high two times, Wednesday and Thursday. Micron closed above its pivot point four times; but, despite a strong Thursday, not Friday, and note the pivot point for Friday was 15c below the $28 strike … Expiry Friday, the Bears were in charge, forcing Micron below the pivot point, and below Supports s1, and s2 to 27.16 where the bulls made their stand, keeping the Bears from the $27 strike prize.

 

V. May 2017.

Third Friday of the month expiry was May 19th. Moon phase: last quarter began after the US markets closed on May 19th.

V.a. Date, Open, High, Low, Close, Vol (/100)

  • 5/15/2017, 29.08, 29.19, 28.73, 28.83, 218999
  • 5/16/2017, 28.92, 29.08, 28.57, 29.02, 149408
  • 5/17/2017, 28.34, 28.51, 26.96, 27.00, 380279
  • 5/18/2017, 27.15, 27.89, 27.08, 27.48, 268630
  • 5/19/2017, 27.78, 28.16, 27.73, 27.82, 191732

 

V.b. Date, projected High, actual high, projected low. actual low

  • 5/15/2017, 29.03, 29.19, 28.59, 28.73
  • 5/16/2017, 29.01, 29.08, 28.55, 28.57
  • 5/17/2017, 29.31, 28.51, 28.80, 26.96
  • 5/18/2017, 27.76, 27.89, 26.21, 27.08
  • 5/19/2017, 28.09, 28.16, 27.28, 27.73

 

V.c. Date, Pivot Point, Supports (s1, s2), Resistance (r1,r2), MU close

  • 5/15/2017, 28.91, 28.70, 28.47, 29.14, 29.35, 28.83
  • 5/16/2017, 28.92, 28.64, 28.46, 29.10, 29.38, 29.02
  • 5/17/2017, 28.89, 28.70, 28.38, 29.21, 29.40, 27.00
  • 5/18/2017, 27.49, 26.47, 25.94, 28.02, 29.04, 27.48
  • 5/19/2017, 27.48, 27.08, 26.67, 27.89, 28.29, 27.82

 

 In table V.b. Micron’s actual high posted above the projected high four times, Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Micron closed below its pivot point three times, and above its pivot point twice, Tuesday, and expiry Friday. Note the pivot point for Friday was $27.48 slightly below the $27.50 strike … The preliminary analysis suggests the Bears were looking to force a Micron pullback to the $26.50 strike and failed miserably.

 

VI. June 2017. QW*

Third Friday of the month expiry was June 16th. This was also the second Quadruple Witching (QW*) expiry of 2017. Also, a FOMC Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Fed Chairperson  Ms. J. Yellen took place only TWO days before expiry.  Moon phase: last quarter began on Saturday, June 17th.

VI.a. Date, Open, High, Low, Close, Vol (/100)

  • 6/12/2017 30.06 31.68 29.21 31.20 465509
  • 6/13/2017 31.75 32.24 30.77 31.54 337679
  • 6/14/2017 31.78 31.79 30.85 31.06 289350
  • 6/15/2017 30.47 30.97 30.08 30.56 336706
  • 6/16/2017 30.63 31.00 29.82 29.86 428817

 

VI.b. Date, projected High, actual high, projected low. actual low

  • 6/12/2017, 31.77, 31.68, 28.39, 29.21
  • 6/13/2017, 32.68, 32.24, 30.21, 30.77
  • 6/14/2017, 31.89, 31.79, 30.42, 30.85
  • 6/15/2017, 31.43, 30.97, 30.49, 30.08
  • 6/16/2017, 31.21, 31.00, 30.32, 29.82

 

VI.c. Date, Pivot Point, Supports (s1, s2), Resistance (r1,r2), MU close

  • 6/12/2017, 31.03, 29.12, 27.65, 32.50, 34.41, 31.20
  • 6/13/2017, 30.70, 29.71, 28.23, 32.18, 33.17, 31.54
  • 6/14/2017, 31.52, 30.79, 30.05, 32.26, 32.99, 31.06
  • 6/15/2017, 31.23, 30.68, 30.29, 31.62, 32.17, 30.56
  • 6/16/2017, 30.54, 30.10, 29.65, 30.99, 31.43, 29.86

 

In table VI.b. Micron’s actual high posted above the projected high zero times. Micron closed below its pivot point three times, Wednesday, thru Friday expiry.    Thursday, the actual Low was 41c below the projected Low, and Friday, the actual was 50c below the projected Low.  The preliminary analysis suggests the Bears were looking to force a Micron expiry close below $30 … but, mark the Friday expiry close only 14c below the $30 strike as a win for the Bulls.

 

VII. July 2017.

Third Friday of the month expiry will be July 21st. Moon phase: last quarter began on July 16th. The new moon phase will begin on July 23rd ….

VII.a. Date, Open, High, Low, Close, Vol (/100)

  • 7/17/2017, 31.67, 31.86, 31.44, 31.72, 223205
  • 7/18/2017, 31.64, 31.91, 31.40, 31.90, 140450
  • 7/19/2017, 32.05, 32.35, 31.65, 31.82, 199841
  • 7/20/2017, 31.93, 32.02, 31.42, 32.00, 229483
  • 7/21/2017, 31.90, 32.10, 31.62, 32.01, 211466

 

VII.b. Date, projected High, actual high, projected low. actual low

  • 7/17/2017, 32.22, 31.86, 31.53, 31.44
  • 7/18/2017, 32.00, 31.91, 31.58, 31.40
  • 7/19/2017, 32.16,  32.35, 31.65, 31.65
  • 7/20/2017, 32.09, 32.02, 31.39, 31.42
  • 7/21/2017, 32.31, 32.10, 31.71, 31.62

 

VII.c. Date, Pivot Point, Supports (s1, s2), Resistance (r1,r2),, MU close

  • 7/17/2017, 31.67, 31.38, 30.98, 32.07, 32.36,, 31.72
  • 7/18/2017, 31.67, 31.49, 31.25, 31.91, 32.09,, 31.90
  • 7/19/2017, 31.74, 31.56, 31.23, 32.07, 32.25,, 31.82
  • 7/20/2017, 31.94, 31.53, 31.24, 32.23, 32.64,, 32.00
  • 7/21/2017, 31.81, 31.61, 31.21, 32.21, 32.41,, 32.01

 

   In table VII.b.  Heading into this week’s expiry, testing the 31.5 and 32 strikes, Micron’s actual high posted above the projected high only one time. Taking note of the actual lows versus the projected lows, Micron has been below the projected low twice, right at the projected low once, and Thursday it was 3c above the projected low. Micron has closed above its pivot point four times this week; but, not once above Resistance r1.   The preliminary analysis suggests the Bears, and potentially profit taking Bulls,  are looking to force a Micron expiry close (above the 31.81 pivot point and below Resistance r1) between the $31.50, and the $32 strike … but, mark a projected Friday expiry close 14c below the $32 strike (hint: $31.86) as a win for the Bulls.

 

—  Monday, 7/3/2017   thru    Monday 7/31/2017  ——

 

  Hope the above MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O) calculations for 3rd Friday of the month options expiry and this Friday’s, 7/21/2017, expiry,  helps your investing and trading planning today …

 

 

 

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