MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) (d-w-m) for Monday (7/31/2017)

 

Only one day’s trading left in July 2017.  Last week in review, Micron opened Monday at $32.00, attained a Monday, and weekly, high of $32.01, a Friday, and weekly, low of $28.96 and closed Friday at $29.28 (Bearish). Micron’s weekly projected high was $32.66 and Micron’s posted high was -$0.65 below. Micron’s weekly projected low was $31.71 and Micron’s actual $28.96 low was -$2.75 below the projected low. (Bearish) Micron managed to close, ZERO out of five trading days, higher than it opened (Bearish).

The Devil is in the details!

The bearish tone, despite four successive quarters of Micron’s improving fundamentals with sales, earnings and margins beats, appears to be from the Nanya sale of Micron stock acquired in the Micron acquisition deal for Inotera.  A second reoccurring negativity theme points directly to articles hyping ‘possible supply’ issues. I have listened to ALL of Micron’s conference calls, as well as to calls of Micron’s competitors and customers.
First, from the customers, supplies in the channel are tight forcing inventory drawdowns to offset price increases and lack of supply. Companies eating into their on hand chip inventories thought they might be able to take advantage of seasonal weakness to replenish inventories, only to find seasonal weakness was, apparently, nowhere to be found.
Second, as to Micron and Micron’s competitors, I have repeatedly read supply ‘stories’ that leave out MATERIAL facts, and mis-lead the reader to believe substantial chip supply is going appear out of thin air in the immediate future. HOW? It take a year and a half to a couple of YEARS to build a new fab, install machines, and lines, AND you NEED experienced and trained people to operate the new fab.   I have also pointed out conference call statements that 3D NAND has more bits because 3D NAND has more layers, more layers requiring more process steps, taking more TIME to finish a wafer. Wafer starts per month go down unless you add more machines and lines to make up the wafer SHORTFALL. Plus, recent conference calls all talk about production of 3D NAND with even MORE layers taking even MORE time to complete wafers.
Third, Micron has stated in its most recent call that it plans to bring approximately TWENTY, ( as in 20 ) new 1x products to market in the next 12 months. The PACE of today’s technology change in the handful of companies, like Micron, left in the semiconductor industry is BEYOND the common sense grasp of anyone hyping ANY new players bringing new competitive supply to the market … new supply without ownership of, or licensed intellectual property (IP), without TRAINED, EXPERIENCED people to (a) resolve problems when things do NOT go as expected, (b) without TRAINED, EXPERIENCED people to improve satisfactory yields, and (c) without EDUCATED, TRAINED, EXPERIENCED research people and teams to keep up with the technology advances, and maybe even create new technologies.

Yes, China could toss a bundle of money to entice EDUCATED, TRAINED, EXPERIENCED semiconductor industry people … but LEST WE FORGET, China is first and foremost a Communist ideology, wherein a small number of Communist Party members and individuals oppress the majority, censor the truth, and those foolish EDUCATED, TRAINED, EXPERIENCED semiconductor industry people could find that bundle of money enticement leads to a prison cell if they make the mistake of thinking they still have their Freedom of Speech, or other Democratic RIGHTS we all seem to take for granted.   Remember China and Tiananmen Square 1989?
Lastly, PLEASE STOP lumping different types of NAND together.  So, SK Hynix says fab expansion? Is SK Hynix’s projected ‘new fab’ going to be building EXPENSIVE ‘charge trap’ 3D NAND, or something akin to Micron’s less expensive, CMOS under array, ‘floating gate’ 3D TLC NAND?   Because YES, it DOES make a difference! 
So, …  where is that hyped “new’ chip supply coming from? and ahem … WHEN?

And I’m sorry if it sounds like I’m only beating up on China, because let’s not forget Saudi Arabia ARRESTED a woman for being video’d (and posted) wearing a mini-skirt? Woeful Women’s RIGHTS? Woeful Children’s RIGHTS? Abuses can be found all across the planet.   Getting off my soap box …. and back to Micron:

The Daily, Weekly, Monthly, (d-w-m) Micron Tech chart analysis review below is a Bull/Bear, PROs, and CONs, buyholdsellshort chart analysis with the same capital conserving cautionary and pull back suggestions, as well as the occasional ‘contrarian’ bullish suggestions I have learned to appreciate and use to manage my investments with the Reward/RISK, or RISK/Reward Ratio. As I own shares of Micron Tech, I want to know the good, the bad, and the ugly, the buyholdsellshort because it’s my money.   I hope sharing my homework helps you with yours.

MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) (d-w-m) chart analysis review

MU.O from Friday, (7/28/2017)     $29.28 -0.96 (-3.17%)
After Hours: $29.22 -0.06 (-0.2%)
EPS(ttm):  $2.17             P/E(ttm):  13.465
52 Week High: $32.96      52 Week Low: $13.02
Index:   NASDAQ 100®   S&P 500®

 

Currently the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) is bearish since it is trading below its signal line. The MACD crossed below its signal line 3 trading days (td) ago. Since the MACD crossed below its moving average, MICRON TECH ORD’s price has decreased -2.07%, and has ranged from a low of $28.960 to a high of $31.300. The MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range. There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 trading days.
MACD Value: -0.141        Signal Line:  +0.106

Friday’s (7/28/2017) Relative Strength Index (RSI) for MU was 38.5997 DOWN from last Friday’s 57.4979.   The RSI calculations are based on the Close over a 14 trading day period.

Note: below you will find contrarian bullish suggestions (highlighted in green) in the Bearish sellshort Daily chart; however, compared to last week’s Daily, Weekly, Monthly, (d-w-m) chart analysis review, all of the ‘projected’ Hi-Lo-Close targets are lower.    

mu 20170728d-ppt

Chart (0.a) : Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C … Pivot Point (PP) Indicator (a)   Note: ‘small up arrow’ ‘buy’ signal on 7/27/2017.

  • ———————–

Interesting note, one of my Pivot point, usually sellshort, indicators Chart (0.a) above turned bullish Indicator (a) suggested going long on July 5th, 17 trading days ago, at 30.51 (now down $1.23) and generated a ‘buy’ signal on 7/27/2017Indicator (b) suggested closing out any open short positions and going long on July 7th, 15 trading days ago, at 30.20 (now down $0.92) Both Pivot point indicators have a Micron technical ‘capital conserving’ stop at $28.56. Both of these indicators are still suggesting ‘Long’. So, caution, and more homework, is the prudent course of action.

For every trading day in the month of July 2017, see Daily Pivot Points, Support, Resistance, Daily (and now: Weekly) ‘projected’ Highs, ‘projected’ Lows, and more:

 

mu 20170728d

Chart 1: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).

  • ———————–

(1) Analysis of Daily chart activity through Friday’s (7/28/2017) close at: $29.28
The current trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered. The current market price activity is Strongly Bearish and suggests favorable trade opportunities on the short side. If already holding short positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $32.35. Traders with remaining short positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of $32.35. Be prepared for a potential short term price rally back to the $30.87 area.

  • Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
  • If Long, exit all contracts at: $28.96
  • If Short, exit all contracts at: $32.35

(1.a) Additional DAILY chart info:

  • Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
  • Short term: Prices are moving.
  • Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

(1.b) DAILY chart price projection ranges (7/31/2017 – 8/4/2017):

  • The upper projected target is: $31.43
  • The lower projected target is: $27.22
  • The projected closing price is: $29.33
  • Note: the above DAILY chart price projection ranges are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
  • ———————–

 

mu 20170728sma-d

Chart 2: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, Simple Moving Averages: sma3, sma9, sma20, sma50, sma100, sma200, sma400 … looking for moving average trends and crossovers

  • ———————–

(1.c) DAILY chart Moving Averages

  • The 3 period Simple Moving Average (sma3) at 29.78 is in a sideways/down trend.
  • The 9 period Simple Moving Average (sma9) at 30.96 is in a sideways trend.
  • The 20 period Simple Moving Average (sma20) at 30.82 is in a sideways trend.
  • The 50 period Simple Moving Average (sma50) at 30.76 is in an uptrend.
  • The 100 period Simple Moving Average (sma100) at 29.12 is in an uptrend.
  • The 200 period Simple Moving Average (sma200) at 25.02 is in an uptrend.
  • The 400 period Simple Moving Average (sma400) at 18.93 is in an uptrend.
  • ———————–

mu 20170728w

Chart 3: Micron Tech, Weekly, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).

  • ———————–

(2) Analysis of Weekly chart activity through Friday’s (7/28/2017) close at: $29.28
The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered. If already holding long positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $28.56. Traders with remaining long positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of $26.96. Be prepared for a potential short term price pull back to the $27.78 area.

  • Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
  • If Long, exit all contracts at: $26.37
  • If Short, exit all contracts at: $32.96

(2.a) Additional WEEKLY chart info:

  • Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
  • Short term: Prices are moving.
  • Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
  • Note (2.a.1) this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

 

(2.b) WEEKLY chart price projection ranges (7/31/2017 – 8/11/2017):

  • Note (2.a.2): prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 22.05.
  • The upper projected target is: $33.03
  • The lower projected target is: $26.10
  • The projected closing price is: $29.57
  • Note: the above WEEKLY chart price projection ranges are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
  • ———————–

mu 20170728sma-w

Chart 4: Micron Tech, Weekly, EOD, Simple Moving Averages: sma3, sma9, sma20, sma50, sma100, sma200, sma400 … looking for moving average trends and crossovers

  • ———————–

(2.c) WEEKLY chart Moving Averages

  • The 3 period Simple Moving Average (sma3) at 31.03 is in an uptrend.
  • The 9 period Simple Moving Average (sma9) at 30.73 is in an uptrend.
  • The 20 period Simple Moving Average (sma20) at 29.23 is in an uptrend.
  • The 50 period Simple Moving Average (sma50) at 23.74 is in an uptrend.
  • The 100 period Simple Moving Average (sma100) at 18.48 is in an uptrend.
  • The 200 period Simple Moving Average (sma200) at 22.56 is in an uptrend.
  • The 400 period Simple Moving Average (sma400) at 15.55 is in an uptrend.
  • ———————–

mu 20170728m

Chart 5: Micron Tech, Monthly, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).

  • ———————–

(3) Analysis of Monthly chart activity through Friday’s (7/28/2017) close at: $29.28
The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered.  The current market price activity is Strongly Bullish and suggests favorable trade opportunities on the long side.  If already holding long positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $16.45. Traders with remaining long positions after profit taking should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of $13.02. Be prepared for a potential short term price pull back to the 24.80 area.

  • Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
  • If Long, exit all contracts at: $ 9.35
  • If Short, exit all contracts at: $32.96

(3.a) Additional MONTHLY chart info:

  • Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
  • Short term: Prices are moving.
  • Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
  • Note (3.a.1): this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

 

(3.b) MONTHLY chart price projection ranges (7/31/2017 – 8/31/2017):

  • Note (3.b.1): prices are vulnerable to a correction towards $21.40.
  • The upper projected target is: $37.15
  • The lower projected target is: $22.11
  • The projected closing price is: $29.63
  • Note (3.b.2): the above MONTHLY chart price projection ranges are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.

 

—  Monday, 7/3/2017   thru   Monday 7/31/2017  ——

 

  Hope the above MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O) calculations for Monday, 7/31/2017, day, week, and month of July 2017,  helps your investing and trading planning today …

 

 

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2 thoughts on “MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) (d-w-m) for Monday (7/31/2017)

  1. the market is looking for, and worrying about new fabs Here I’m thinking Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets is falling flat on their face because the Research race is on to be the first to produce a 100+ layer 3D NAND. You can have an existing fab start a 100,000 wafers in a month ** BUT ** more layers require more process steps, taking MORE time to finish a wafer. So, the million dollar question, EVEN with bit growth per wafer going up, is how many wafers, with a satisfactory yield, can you successsfully FINISH in a month? Perhaps Electric Phred, or William Tidwell can jump in here … 30,000 wafers ….???
    With the push for MORE layers, finished wafers per month MUST go down, unless available cleanroom space gets machines, lines, and at some time in the future … new fabs get added.
    When we hear about the first 128 layer 3D NAND it’ll probably be ‘technically’ feasible in a year to a year and a half later that we’ll be hearing about 256 layer chips …. but wait how much TIME will it take to finish, with a satisfactory yield, a 256 layer wafer? … and how many finished wafers per month will we see from a fab that starts 100,000 wafers?
    Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets need to do more homework on satisfactory yield ‘xxx layer’ finished wafers PER MONTH … and less time on wafer starts.

    Like

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