MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) (d-w-m) for Monday (8/7/2017)

 

The Devil is in the details!

 Despite four successive increasingly profitable quarters, with the promise, and forward guidance, of a fifth in progress, Micron’s pps has been struggling since SK Hynix and Samsung announced additional capital expenditures to expand DRAM and NAND manufacturing capacity.
 Both Samsung and SK Hynix are producing more expensive ‘charge trap’ 3D NAND. SK Hynix produces chips found in Apple Inc. gadgets. Samsung produces chips found in Apple Inc. gadgets; but, Samsung is also a competitor to Apple Inc. producing chips for its own Samsung smart phones and gadgets. Micron for the most part does not compete with its customers. As validation of Micron’s packaging advantages, Samsung is separating out a business it hopes will let customers bring engineering problems and ideas with packaging needs solutions to Samsung (hoping to compete with Micron’s). However, despite Samsung promises, customers may still be concerned, or even worried, that their ideas and solutions will wind up in competing Samsung products. Since Micron is building lower cost ‘floating gate’ 3D TLC NAND, Micron is expected to have the packaging, and margins, edge versus its competitors. Advantage: Micron, and just one of the reasons I doubt Micron has hit peak margins; but, margins that I expect Micron can demonstrably sustain over time.

Peak margins and now chip supply increases?

First, I suggest visiting Micron’s Investor Relations webpage and Micron Archived Events:  at link:   http://investors.micron.com/events.cfm

Nasdaq 36th Investor Program
Speaker: Ernie Maddock, CFO Micron
Thursday, June 15, 2017 at 12:00 pm BST / 7:00 am EDT
or link:   http://investors.micron.com/disclaimer.cfm?eventid=182704&ltw=1

In CFO Ernie Maddock’s node transition example bit growth, and cost savings attained, comes at a price as 100 wafers “thru put” are reduced 5 percent. The CFO points out accepting the wafer reduction, or adding machines, lines, and fabs to make up for the wafer losses is up to the company experiencing the wafer thru put losses. In its Q3’2017 Financial call, Micron has stated it plans about 20 new 1x products over the next 12 months.
In the next twelve months, taking the CFO’s example 5% wafer “thru put” loss x 20 new 1x products, and the math is implying Micron is going to gain bit growth, and cost savings, BUT, lose the monthly, quarterly, and annual wafer count equivalent to a WHOLE fab. Wafer count is clearly going to go DOWN, not because I’ve repeatedly said so, but because Micron and Micron’s competitors have stated so. The chip supply, bit growth, cost savings, and profit potential is going to be entirely dependant on satisfactory yield … from fewer wafers. Whether the analysts like it, or not, wafer “thru put” losses due to node transitions are expected to be similar for Micron’s competitors.
That was node transitions, what about wafers delayed by adding more layers? We KNOW adding more layers requires more process steps, taking more time to finish a wafer. So going from 32 layers to 64 layers, and 96 layers … the finished wafer count per month MUST go down. Looking at going from 32 to 64 layers, the potential of 100% bit growth, perhaps 30% cost savings, is banging heads with satisfactory yields because more layers involve RISK of mistakes, errors, and defects. At some point, the RISKS of mistakes, errors, and defects means adding more layers only adds diminishing returns.

Sooner, or later, Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets will get the ‘satisfactory yield determines chips supply from fewer wafers’ message and the science, math, and pace of technological change that emphatically states ‘oops, it is different this time’.

The Daily, Weekly, Monthly, (d-w-m) Micron Tech chart analysis review below is a Bull/Bear, PROs, and CONs, buyholdsellshort chart analysis with the same capital conserving cautionary and pull back suggestions, as well as the occasional ‘contrarian’ bullish suggestions I have learned to appreciate and use to manage my investments with the Reward/RISK, or RISK/Reward Ratio. As I own shares of Micron Tech, I want to know the good, the bad, and the ugly, the buyholdsellshort because it’s my money.  I hope sharing my homework helps you with yours.

MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) (d-w-m) chart analysis review

MU.O from Friday, (8/4/2017)     $27.92 +0.09 (+0.32%)
After Hours: $27.89 -0.03 (-0.11%)
EPS(ttm):  $2.17             P/E(ttm):  12.87
52 Week High: $32.96      52 Week Low: $13.60
Index:   NASDAQ 100®   S&P 500®

 

Currently the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) is bearish since it is trading below its signal line. The MACD crossed below its signal line 8 trading days (tds) ago. Since the MACD crossed below its moving average, MICRON TECH ORD’s price has decreased -6.62%, and has ranged from a low of $27.270 to a high of $31.300. The MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range. There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 trading days.
MACD Value: -0.701        Signal Line: -0.345

Friday’s (8/4/2017) Relative Strength Index (RSI) for MU was 34.389 DOWN from last Friday’s 38.5997.   The RSI calculations are based on the Close over a 14 trading day period.

 

For every trading day in the month of August 2017, see Daily Pivot Points, Support, Resistance, Daily (and now: Weekly) ‘projected’ Highs, ‘projected’ Lows, and more:

———————–

mu 20170804d

Chart 1: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).

  • ———————–

(1) Analysis of Daily chart activity through Friday’s (8/4/2017) close at: $27.92
The current trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered. The current market price activity is Strongly Bearish and suggests favorable trade opportunities on the short side. If already holding short positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $31.30. Traders with remaining short positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of $32.10. Be prepared for a potential short term price rally back to the $29.45 area.

  • Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
  • If Long, exit all contracts at: $27.27
  • If Short, exit all contracts at: $32.35

(1.a) Additional DAILY chart info:

  • Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
  • Short term: Prices are moving.
  • Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
  • Note (1.a.1) this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

(1.b) DAILY chart price projection ranges (8/7/2017 – 8/11/2017):

  • Note (1.b.1): prices are vulnerable to a correction rally towards 29.55.
  • The upper projected target is: $30.06
  • The lower projected target is: $25.74
  • The projected closing price is: $27.90
  • Note: the above DAILY chart price projection ranges are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
  • ———————–

 

mu 20170804sma-d

Chart 2: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, Simple Moving Averages: sma3, sma9, sma20, sma50, sma100, sma200, sma400 … looking for moving average trends and crossovers

  • ———————–

(1.c) DAILY chart Moving Averages

  • The 3 period Simple Moving Average (sma3) at 28.13 is in an uptrend.
  • The 9 period Simple Moving Average (sma9) at 28.90 is in an uptrend.
  • The 20 period Simple Moving Average (sma20) at 30.37 is in an uptrend.
  • The 50 period Simple Moving Average (sma50) at 30.76 is in an uptrend.
  • The 100 period Simple Moving Average (sma100) at 29.25 is in an uptrend.
  • The 200 period Simple Moving Average (sma200) at 25.30 is in an uptrend.
  • The 400 period Simple Moving Average (sma400) at 19.10 is in an uptrend.
  • ———————–

mu 20170804w

Chart 3: Micron Tech, Weekly, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).

  • ———————–

(2) Analysis of Weekly chart activity through Friday’s (8/4/2017) close at: $27.92
The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered. If already holding long positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $27.27. Traders with remaining long positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of $26.96. Be prepared for a potential short term price pull back to the $27.79 area.

  • Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
  • If Long, exit all contracts at: $26.37
  • If Short, exit all contracts at: $32.96

(2.a) Additional WEEKLY chart info:

  • Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
  • Short term: Prices are moving.
  • Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
  • Note (2.a.1) this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

 

(2.b) WEEKLY chart price projection ranges (8/1/2017 – 8/18/2017):

  • Note (2.a.2): prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 22.05.
  • The upper projected target is: $31.66
  • The lower projected target is: $24.65
  • The projected closing price is: $28.15
  • Note: the above WEEKLY chart price projection ranges are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
  • ———————–

mu 20170804sma-w

Chart 4: Micron Tech, Weekly, EOD, Simple Moving Averages: sma3, sma9, sma20, sma50, sma100, sma200, sma400 … looking for moving average trends and crossovers

  • ———————–

(2.c) WEEKLY chart Moving Averages

  • The 3 period Simple Moving Average (sma3) at 29.74 is in an uptrend.
  • The 9 period Simple Moving Average (sma9) at 30.36 is in an uptrend.
  • The 20 period Simple Moving Average (sma20) at 29.34 is in an uptrend.
  • The 50 period Simple Moving Average (sma50) at 23.98 is in an uptrend.
  • The 100 period Simple Moving Average (sma100) at 18.59 is in an uptrend.
  • The 200 period Simple Moving Average (sma200) at 22.60 is in an uptrend.
  • The 400 period Simple Moving Average (sma400) at 15.59 is in an uptrend.
  • ———————–

mu 20170804m

Chart 5: Micron Tech, Monthly, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).

  • ———————–

(3) Analysis of Monthly chart activity through Friday’s (8/4/2017) close at: $27.92
The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered. The current market price activity is Strongly Bullish and suggests favorable trade opportunities on the long side. If already holding long positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $18.18. Traders with remaining long positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of $16.17. Be prepared for a potential short term price fall back to the $24.89 area.

  • Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
  • If Long, exit all contracts at: $11.50
  • If Short, exit all contracts at: $32.96

 

(3.a) Additional MONTHLY chart info:

  • Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
  • Short term: Prices are moving.
  • Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
  • Note (3.a.1): this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

 

(3.b) MONTHLY chart price projection ranges (8/1/2017 – 8/31/2017):

  • Note (3.b.1): prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 21.53.
  • The upper projected target is: $35.69
  • The lower projected target is: $20.69
  • The projected closing price is: $28.19
  • Note (3.b.2): the above MONTHLY chart price projection ranges are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.
  • ———————–

 

 

—  Tuesday, 8/1/2017   thru   Thursday 8/31/2017  ——

 

  Hope the above MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O) calculations for Monday, 8/7/2017, day, week, and month of August 2017,  helps your investing and trading planning today …

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

One thought on “MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) (d-w-m) for Monday (8/7/2017)

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s