Bitcoin (BTC per USD)(BTC) (d-w-m) for Monday 2/12/2018

 

There will be a maximum of 21 million Bitcoins. With 7 billion people on the planet, that 21 million Bitcoins ‘limit’ is open to discussion and debate as either a short-sighted planning failure, or an ‘exclusivity’ stroke of genius. ‘If’ Bitcoin demand exceeds Bitcoin supply which, currently, appears to be the case, you open the door to speculation.

The open source blockchain technology underlying Bitcoin holds great promise of utility in a multitude of USA and global industries. That, IMHO, is the valuable component of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin as a currency? Besides the 21 million maximum Bitcoins limitation, risk, trust, lack of familiarity, lack of understanding, and more, are all working against Bitcoin as a currency. We all can look at banking and financial statements and actually ‘see’ digital cash and digital assets, even when we do not call it, or refer to it, as that. We use debit and credit cards for digital payments.
Despite the accusations of the US Federal Reserve printing money, all the US dollars in circulation are but a pittance in comparison to the ‘digital’ stored wealth of the people. None of the global Treasuries have a currency issue equal to the cash ** and ** ‘digital’ component of their currency. For tax purposes alone, the USA and global governments and their respective Treasuries WANT to track each of us, and to TRACK each of us they NEED to minimize cash transactions, and FORCE digitally trackable transactions. Take a look at the steps India has been taking with its currency to minimize ‘cash’ transactions … and maximize ‘tracking’.
Like a currency, Bitcoin trades 24 hours per day, every day. However, storing and using Bitcoin is more of an effort than reaching into a pocket for cash.
Numismatics. Going back to hunter-gatherers of ages past, people are collectors. We can hold, study, collect, and trade coins and bills of every currency on this planet … but there currently is NO numismatic component, or value, to Bitcoin, or any of the other digital currencies.
Well, in my humble opinion, Bitcoin needs some regulation to get more businesses to accept Bitcoin as a currency, and as payment for products, or services, rendered. Bitcoin also needs some regulation of exchanges to enhance security and deter ‘hackers’ from their currently disruptive thefts.
The problem of moving digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, et cetera, into an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is that Bitcoin does trade 24×7 … so, when the US markets close non-holiday, regular hours trading at 4 P.M. ET. on a Friday, any market hours based Bitcoin or other crypto-coin based ETF will immediately disconnect from its underlying ‘asset’. Saturday, Sunday, and US holiday market closes while crypto currencies are trading across the planet could, or will, result in HUGE up, or down, Monday Opening prices. If Friday, or Monday, is a US markets are closed holiday, the difference between the previous Close and the Opening prices is going to be a ‘Volatility’ nightmare. IMHO, any US markets crypto-currencies ETF will have to trade 24×7.

 

The Daily, Weekly, Monthly, (d-w-m) Bitcoin (BTC per USD)(BTC) chart analysis review below is a Bull/Bear, PROs, and CONs, BuyHoldSellShort (BHSS) chart analysis with the same capital conserving cautionary and pull back suggestions, as well as the occasional ‘contrarian’ bullish suggestions I have learned to appreciate and use to manage my investments with the Reward/RISK, or RISK/Reward Ratio. Where appropriate, I add information from my databases, spreadsheets, as well as my notes from conference calls and articles. I do not own Bitcoin, but I do own shares of GBTC, I want to know the good, the bad, and the ugly, the buy–hold–sell–short because it’s my money. I hope sharing my homework, comments, and opinions helps you with your investment homework.

 

BTC 20180209d

Chart #1  Bitcoin, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).

  • ———————–

I. Analysis of Bitcoin’s DAILY chart activity through Friday’s (2/9/2018) close @ 8,696.8301

On the EOD daily chart basis, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is bearish since it is trading below its signal line.The MACD crossed below its signal line 10 trading days ago. Since the MACD crossed below its moving average, Bitcoin (BTC per USD)’s price has decreased 13.95%, and has ranged from a low of 5,968.36 to a high of 11,263.70. The MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range. There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.
MACD Value: -1,247.596 Signal Line: -1,192.499

Bitcoin’s On Balance Volume (OBV) is a positive 37387884 though in a down trend.

Friday’s (2/9/2018) Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was 40.35 up from last Friday’s 31.81.   The RSI calculations are based on the Close over a 14 trading day period.

The current trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered. If already holding short positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to 10,280.84. Traders with remaining short positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of 11,860.29. Be prepared for a potential short term price rally back to the 9,687.43 area.
Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
If Long, exit all contracts at … 5,968.36
If Short, exit all contracts at … 12,064.19

Additional DAILY chart Info:

  • Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
  • Short term: Prices are moving.
  • Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
  • Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

 

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction rally towards 11,235.80.

  • The upper projected target is: 11,317.84
  • The lower projected target is: 5,798.41
  • The projected closing price is: 8,558.12
  • Note: the above DAILY chart price projection ranges are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.

 

 

BTC 20180209sma-d

Chart 2: Bitcoin (BTC per USD)(BTC) , Daily, EOD, Simple Moving Averages: sma3, sma9, sma20, sma50, sma100, sma200, sma400 … looking for moving average trends and crossovers. I use the sma3 and sma9 as short term signal line and indicator.
———————–

(1.f) DAILY chart Moving Averages

  • The 3 period Simple Moving Average (sma3) at 8183.41 is in a downtrend.
  • The 9 period Simple Moving Average (sma9) at 8293.71 is in a downtrend.
  • The 20 period Simple Moving Average (sma20) at 9818.54 is in a downtrend.
  • The 50 period Simple Moving Average (sma50) at 12364.93 is in a downtrend.
  • The 100 period Simple Moving Average (sma100) at 11687.06 is in an uptrend.
  • The 200 period Simple Moving Average (sma200) at 8017.39 is in an uptrend.
  • The 400 period Simple Moving Average (sma400) at 4810.20 is in an uptrend.
  • ———————–

 

BTC 20180209w

Chart #3  Bitcoin, Weekly, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).

  • ———————–

II.  Analysis of Bitcoin’s WEEKLY chart activity through Friday’s (2/9/2018) close @ 8,696.8301

Currently the MACD is bearish since it is trading below its signal line.The MACD crossed below its signal line 1 trading day ago. Since the MACD crossed its moving average, Bitcoin (BTC per USD)’s price has increased 5.83% , and has ranged from a low of 5,968.360  to a high of 11,860.290.

The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered. If already holding long positions,  look to take partial profits on any retracement to 5,968.36. Traders with remaining long positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of 5,968.36.
Be prepared for a potential short term price rally back to the 10,756.0820 area.
Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
If Long, exit all contracts at:       5,493.64
If Short, exit all contracts at:    19,870.62

Additional WEEKLY chart Info:

  • Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
  • Short term: Prices are moving.
  • Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
  • Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

 

  • The upper projected target is:   13,185.79
  • The lower projected target is:      4,508.88
  • The projected closing price is:     8,847.33
  • Note: the above DAILY chart price projection ranges are for reference only, and can be easily exceeded by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.

 

BTC 20180209sma-w

Chart 4: Bitcoin (BTC per USD)(BTC), Weekly, EOD, Simple Moving Averages: sma3, sma9, sma20, sma50, sma100, sma200, sma400 … looking for moving average trends and crossovers. I use the sma3 and sma9 as short term signal line and indicator.

  • ———————–

(2.f) Weekly chart Moving Averages

  • The 3 period Simple Moving Average (sma3) at 9560.87 is in a downtrend.
  • The 9 period Simple Moving Average (sma9) at 12978.38 is in a downtrend.
  • The 20 period Simple Moving Average (sma20) at 10036.46 is in an uptrend.
  • The 50 period Simple Moving Average (sma50) at 5501.42 is in an uptrend.
  • The 100 period Simple Moving Average (sma100) at 3087.18 is in an uptrend.
  • ———————–

 

Additional Daily chart ‘Pivot Point’  indicators

Pivot Point Indicator (PR1)
Entry Date 2/9/18
Entry Price 8,696.83
Profit/Loss 0.00
Technical Stop 5,968.36

Notes: A potential buying opportunity has been detected. You should consider closing out any open short positions and possibly establish a position to the long side. Proper use of a trailing stop can help limit your initial risk exposure as well as protect your profits.

Pivot Point Indicator (C1)
Market Position Long
Entry Date 2/7/18 ( 2 bars ago )
Entry Price 7,592.72
Profit/Loss 1,104.11
Technical Stop 5,968.36

If you have already established a long position, consider using a trailing stop to not only maximize profit potential, but to also limit overall market risk. If you have not yet established a long position, be ready to enter this market if another buying opportunity is detected.

 

—  Monday, 2/12/2018   thru   Friday 2/16/2018  ——

 

  Hope the above Bitcoin (BTC per USD) calculations for Monday, 2/12/2018, day, week, and month (d-w-m) of February 2018,  helps your investing and trading planning today …

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