MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) (d-w-m) for Monday (2/12/2018)

MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC (MU.O)
$40.41 +$0.41 (+1.03 %) as of 4:00:00pm ET Friday 2/9/2018

Micron develops and produces a variety of semiconductor memory devices (chips), including dynamic random access memory (DRAM), flash memory (NAND and NOR), and solid-state drives (SSDs) (for more info see Micron’s company profile below). At now only 20 percent of its business, Micron is no longer tied to the boom/bust personal computer (PC) cycle.
Micron is benefitting from growth as it absorbs former competitor companies like Elpida (and Rexchip), Inotera, and Micron sets itself up for future growth with ‘limited’ licensing of its intellectual properties, hint: Nanya. Thanks to Micron’s business strategy of NOT competing (for the most part) with its customers, Micron has benefitted from partnerships (Intel (INTC), Seagate (STX) etc.), and collaborations (IBM, et cetera). Now, assembly of multiple Micron chips into customer specific ‘packages’ is leading to higher sales, revenues, margins, and bottom line earnings.
Last Monday (Feb. 5th), all but lost in the midst of the latest markets mini-meltdown, Micron Technology Inc (MU.O) raised its projected fiscal second-quarter 2018 guidance as follows:
* New revenue guidance is $7.2 billion to $7.35 billion,
up from previous guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.2 billion.
* New earnings-per-share guidance is $2.70 to $2.75,
up from previous guidance of $2.51 to $2.65.
Micron shares rallied on the raised guidance, only to be sold down to feed badly needed cash to hedge funds and institutional players that employed convoluted ‘hedging’ strategies that SHORTED volatility ETPs which include ETNs and ETFs like: UVXY, the VXX and the TVIX, et cetera:

VELOCITYSHARES DAILY 2X VIX SHORT TERM (TVIX)
$11.30 -2.20 (-16.30%) as of 4:00:00PM ET 2/9/2018
—–
PATH S&P 500 VIX SHORT TERM FUTURES ETN (VXX)
50.03-5.21 (-9.43%) as of 8:00:00pm ET 02/09/2018
—–
PROSHARES ULTRA VIX SHORT TERM FUTURES ETF (UVXY)
23.34-4.57 (-16.37%) as of 8:00:00pm ET 02/09/2018

These convoluted hedging strategies encompass multiple parties and counter parties (Party 1: Long Product A, Short Product B, Party 2: Hedge Product A Long, Hedge Product B short … etc. expecting minimal net RISK) are not a Ferrarri or a Lamborgini, they are more akin to a full loaded very large crude carrier (VLCC) headed straight for an iceberg at 14 knots. VLCCs do NOT stop on a dime. VLCCs need a lot of room (space), time and distance to turn. Murphy’s Law would instruct these hedge fund fools that if any number of things could go wrong, they should have expected the WORST to happen. Therein we all pay the price for hedge fund hedging follies.
IMHO, there is an unwinding process — still in progress — that is going to push all our buttons. That implies wild swings in equity prices, fund prices, and index points, and you got it: increased volatility. If there is a silver lining to this on going debacle, it is that company CFOs are being given an opportunity to buy back convertible bonds at lower prices, ** or ** to acquire inexpensive treasury stock to offset dilution. Micron indicated it expected to buy back a billion of debt this quarter to get closer to its stated goal of Balance Sheet net cash positive with debt in the 8 billion neighborhood.

Despite Micron’s vastly improving fundamentals, it is not too soon to think about this Friday’s role as third Friday of the month options expiry ** and ** March’s Quadruple Witching (QW) 3rd Friday (3/16/2018) expiry of stock options, stock futures, index options, and index futures. Scenario analysis suggests the hedging follies and blunders we are suffering through now, may make those market events, at least March’s QW, smooth sailing.
One last thing regarding Micron’s fundamentals, and regarding the future of Micron’s NAND flash memory. The markets have entered a mini-panic mode that Intel and Micron may be ending their IMFT partnership. Well, for those of us that listen to conference calls, webcasts, fireside chats, etc., the IMFT continues on with 3D Xpoint.  Micron wants to reduce inventories, and inventory writedown RISKS, by desiging and building memory that will work across all industries. So, PC DRAM, PC NAND, Auto NOR, mobile DRAM, mobile NAND which currently is incompatible … will BE COMPATIBLE.  DRAM chips that work for PC and mobile.  NAND chips that work for PC and mobile. 2019-2020? Maybe?! That, for Micron and Micron’s stockholders, means if PCs hit a bust cycle, the chips won’t languish in inventory to become outdated, useless, and worthless, or wind up on the spot market, hurting spot and contract pricing,  … the chips can go to mobile, the cloud, artificial intellegence, or automotive … Ka Ching!! Ka Ching!! !!

Some Select Micron Metrics

  • CUSIP: 595112103
  • 90-Day Average Volume 39,563,666
  • Primary Exchange NASDAQ-NMS
  • Index:  NASDAQ 100®   S&P 500®
  • Options Yes
  • 52-Week High 11/22/2017 $49.89
  • 52-Week Low 02/24/2017 $22.64
  • Price Performance (Last 52 Weeks) 02/09/2018 +65.28%
  • Volume (10 day Average) 47,291,020
  • Volume (90 day Average) 39,563,666
  • Options Yes
  • Market Capitalization $46.73B
  • Shares Outstanding 1,156,315,000
  • P/E (Trailing Twelve Months) 6.36
  • PEG Ratio (5-Year Projected) 0.23  
  • Ex-Dividend Date —
  • Dividend Pay Date —
  • Dividend —
  • Dividend Yield (Annualized) —

The Daily, Weekly, Monthly, (d-w-m) Micron Tech chart analysis review below is a Bull/Bear, PROs, and CONs, Buy–Hold–Sell–Short (BHSS) chart analysis with the same capital conserving cautionary and pull back suggestions, as well as the occasional ‘contrarian’ bullish suggestions I have learned to appreciate and use to manage my investments with the Reward/RISK, or RISK/Reward Ratio. Where appropriate, I add information from my databases, spreadsheets, as well as my notes from conference calls and articles. As I own shares of Micron Tech, I want to know the good, the bad, and the ugly, the buy–hold–sell–short because it’s my money. I hope sharing my homework, comments, and opinions helps you with your investment homework.

… and now to the charts (Note: I do have additional info to add) :

 

mu 20180209d

Chart 1: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).

  • ———————–

I. Analysis of Micron’s Daily chart activity through Friday’s (2/9/2018) close at $40.41
On the End-of-Day (EoD) Daily chart, Micron’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is bearish since it is trading below its signal line. The MACD crossed below its signal line 20 trading days ago. Since the MACD crossed below its moving average, MICRON TECH ORD’s price has decreased 5.63%, and has ranged from a low of 37.52 to a high of 44.72. The MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range. There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.
MACD Value: -0.657 Signal Line: -0.423

 

The current trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered. The current market price activity is Strongly Bearish and suggests favorable trade opportunities on the short side. If already holding short positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $44.09. Traders with remaining short positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of $44.72. Be prepared for a potential short term price rally back to the $42.81 area.
Suggested placement of capital conserving stops…
If Long, exit all contracts at: 37.52
If Short, exit all contracts at: 44.72

 

mu 20180209w

Chart 4: Micron Tech, Weekly, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).

  • ———————–

II. Analysis of Micron’s Weekly chart activity through Friday’s (2/9/2018) close at $40.41

On the End-of-Day (EoD) Weekly chart, Micron’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is bearish since it is trading below its signal line.The MACD crossed below its signal line 7 trading weeks ago. Since the MACD crossed its moving average, MICRON TECH ORD’s price has decreased 8.41%, and has ranged from a high of 46.98 to a low of 37.52.. The MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range. There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.
MACD Value: 2.109 Signal Line: 2.931

 

 

The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered. If already holding long positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $37.52. Traders with remaining long positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of 37.52.  Be prepared for a potential short term price rally back to the 42.14 area.
Suggested placement of capital conserving stops…
If Long, exit all contracts at: 37.52
If Short, exit all contracts at: 49.89

mu 20180209m

Chart 5: Micron Tech, Monthly, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).

  • ———————–

III. Analysis of Micron’s Monthly chart activity through Friday’s (2/9/2018) close at $40.41

On the End-of-Day (EoD) Monthly chart, Micron’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is bullish since it is trading above its signal line.The MACD crossed above its signal line 17 trading months ago. Since the MACD crossed its moving average, MICRON TECH ORD’s price has increased 127.28% , and has ranged from a low of 16.17 to a high of 49.89. The MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range. There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.
MACD Value: 5.831    Signal Line: 4.331

 

The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered. The current market price activity is Strongly Bullish and suggests favorable trade opportunities on the long side.  If already holding long positions,  look to take partial profits on any retracement to $26.85. Traders with remaining long positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of $24.07. Be prepared for a potential short term price pull back to the 33.94 area.

Suggested placement of capital conserving stops…
If Long, exit all contracts at: 18.18
If Short, exit all contracts at: 49.89

 

—  Monday, 2/12/2018   thru   Friday 2/16/2018  ——

 

  Hope the above MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O) calculations for Monday, 2/12/2018, day, week, and month (d-w-m) of February 2018,  helps your investing and trading planning today …

 

2 thoughts on “MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) (d-w-m) for Monday (2/12/2018)

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