Micron Tech (MU) 20180410 – 20180413

Updated Sunday 4/15/2018  at approximately 1:00 PM ET

Micron’s pps action the last couple of weeks, post-Fed rates increase, was:

  • (1) the Fed rates increase and
  • (2) President Trump’s tarriffs threats on China exports to the USA potentially leading to a trade war, and
  • (3) a UBS analyst article rating Micron a ‘Sell?’.

First, the markets didn’t like the Fed rate increase. Second, China was sounding like it was going to continue its “Communistic/Socialistic” economic strategy of stealing Intellectual properties by hacking, or by extorting USA companies that would like to do business in China to share IP, training, and educating its people … That last “extortion’ senario was an unsustainable USA path to economic ruin. There is never a great, or even good, time to conduct a trade war … but China started this with hacking and IP theft … and it’ll continue until something is done. President Trump’s tarriffs ‘threat’ send a clear message to China that things ARE going to change … or else .. and yes, China can complain to the World Trade Organization (WTO) … but China’s argument will be to continue the THEFT and EXTORTION of, and from, USA companies. I seriously doubt the WTO will accomodate China’s claims of protectionism, when the Chinese crimes are Industrial espionage and extortion … IMHO, President Trump is correct in assuming China ‘gets’ that it has more to lose … and will negotiate rather than infuriate all of the global governments whose companies it is also abusing.

Well, this week, China’s President Xi is sounding like China gets the message on both respecting, and protecting, the intellectual properties of USA businesses that would like to do business in China, and China’s tarriffs on USA products may be coming down. Congrats to President Trump’s negotiating strategy.

Some of the information, above and below, was published as comments on a Seeking Alpha article, including much of the Daily chart analysis (which was posted Tuesday evening). The Seeking Alpha article reviews the PROs and CONs of an April 4th 2018 UBS analyst article and the effects it had in undermining Micron’s price per share (pps). The UBS analyst initiated coverage of Micron with a $35 price target and a sell recommendation based on past cycles and the following:

 First, a little history on the differences that created past Demand/Supply cycles:

The last demand upcycle was started … by an unfortunate fire at a SK Hynix (Wuxi) China fab. Sorry, that fire was merely a pre-cursor. SK Hynix kept saying how quickly things would be back to normal … and tried to convert another fab from NAND to DRAM and ran into the ‘un-satisfactory yield’ issues and problems. Then when SK Hynix looked like Wuxi could come back up to speed and the supporting fab could go back to NAND … well, the ‘un-satisfactory yield’ issues and problems were now biting production two SK Hynix fabs … DRAM and NAND! SK Hynix’s ‘Shortly’ became more than a YEAR! In the midst of these supply issues, Samsung took the DEMAND pricing opportunity to build a new fab and that extra SUPPLY took the wind out of the DRAM pricing sails.
With Samsung knocking the wind out of the DRAM chips pricing sails, give credit to Micron, and Micron alone, for creating the current upcycle. What am I talking about? Micron shifted production out of weak PC DRAM demand shifting production to mobile NAND. Micron took supply out of the DRAM markets by converting multiple fabs (Elpida, Rexchip, Inotera) from 35nm DRAM straight to 20nm. Thanks to Micron’s ‘bargain purchase’ of Elpida, Micron now has the scale to shift lines and whole fabs to producing whatever promises the longer term ROI, ROA, ROE, etc. … and the 35nm to 20nm node transition meant every line had to be shutdown and moved to increase spacing. It is not an overnight process. Yes, Micron was losing money, but Micron’s eyes were on multiple prizes, (1) converting the fabs for current and future node transitions, (2) convincing Micron’s customers on the cost savings and benefits of ‘packaging’ multiple Micron chips, and (3) not making SK Hynix’s un-satisfactory yield mistakes.
In the meantime, Micron introduced us to the Hybrid Memory Cube (HMC), Automata, and with its IMFT partnership with Intel (INTC) 3D Xpoint, and Micron’s GDDR5x NAND (IMHO, thanks to Elpida research in gaming and video). Over a year ago, we saw Micron’s Feb 2017 Analyst conference slide that refers to Micron’s “new memory”, highly likely to be a phase change hybrid with Micron holding hundreds of phase change patents … the analysts bashed Micron for purportedly breaking up the partnership w/Intel … but totally missed the ‘new memory’ path we have yet to hear about in more detail.
Yes, Micron and Micron’s competitors are losing wafers to node transitions, ** BUT ** are adding clean room space, not to flood the markets w/chips supply, but merely to make up for the monthly wafers that are not getting finished because the industry is FOCUSED on adding more layers … adding more layers involves more process steps, ** and ** takes more time. Micron’s competitors are acutely aware of 3D Xpoint advantages … why would anyone build a new fab that’ll be obsolete before it can even be finished?
Micron and Micron’s competitors KNOW their customers and that the node transitions, coupled with the TIME penalty in adding more layers results in FEWER finished wafers per month. If you price your customers out of business … you price yourself out of business. You MUST add cleanroom space, machines, and lines …

I. UBS on Dynamic Random Access Memory a.k.a. DRAM

“Mr. Arcuri believes that the total wafer output for the DRAM industry will increase by 170,000 wafers starts per month (wsm) between 2018 and 2019. This represents roughly 15% of the total Industry capacity. While he believes that “some of this is simply required to keep supply growing to meet ~20% bit demand growth given the effective capacity loss from shrinks” it will still result in approximately 5% oversupply in the overall industry sometime in 2019. (For those new to this industry, shrinks are reductions in process size, in nanometers. The smaller the process, the more memory you can fit in a single wafer.) He further believes that this oversupply by roughly 5% will result in a cumulative industry wide average sales prices (NYSE:ASP) decline as much as 55%.”

Hm!? Wafer starts per month equals oversupply? In any word problem, we look for the answers to what we want to know from what we are given, identifying what information is not revelant to solving the problem(s), looking for information from second sources, and calculating an answer that makes sense. The problem that we want to resolve an answer to, because we are not told, is how does the analyst get from Point A (170,000 wsm) to point Z (“…oversupply by roughly 5% … industry wide average sales prices (ASPs) decline as much as 55%.”)

We do not know (because the analyst doesn’t tell us) how many of those wafer starts per month will be 3D Xpoint a.k.a. Optane (Intel) and QuantX (Micron). This is important to know because Micron will be converting DRAM production from DRAM to 3D Xpoint (QuantX/Optane) for (a) Intel’s needs and, (b) as Micron ramps QuantX for its own ‘packaged’ products … like SSDs, and (c) as Micron’s customers, depending on where they are in the life cycles of their products, start designing their own QuantX nextgen products. Clearly some of Micron’s customers will not feel it necessary to incorporate QuantX into their products … ever. Do ‘smart’ coffee makers, or ‘smart’ refrigerators … NEED QuantX/Optane even in the whole ‘connected home’ scenario? Common sense says … No!! We also do not know what ‘satisfactory’ yield number the UBS analyst is applying to Micron, Micron’s competition … and/or the industry. We also do not know what percentage of the ‘projected’ 170,000 wsm Micron, and Micron’s competition will feel the need to stick into inventory for work in progress and the month’s weekly contractual obligations such as assembling multiple chips for customer customized ‘packaged’ products. Clearly, inventory cushions against production delays, halts and wafer scrapping delimas will be required.

Here are some of the ‘other source’ things we do know because Micron has told us so:
⦁ DRAM: CY-18 Industry bit output growth in the 20% range
⦁ On track to achieve 1X nm DRAM bit crossover by the end of CY-18
⦁ Expect to deliver samples of 1Y nm DRAM and 3rd gen 3D NAND by end of FY-18
⦁ Expect to ramp initial volume for these nodes in 2H CY-18
⦁ NAND: CY-18 Industry bit output growth somewhat higher than 45%
⦁ On track to achieve 64L 3D NAND bit crossover in 2H FY-18
⦁ Increased SSD market share; total SSD sales up 80% Y/Y
⦁ Qualified 1X nm DRAM at 3 of the largest Hyperscale customers
⦁ Achieved record Automotive design wins in 1H FY-18
⦁ High-end smartphones migrating to 6GB LPDRAM and >64 GB NAND
⦁ Micron is addressing with power efficient LPDRAM & TLC Managed NAND
⦁ Micron is addressing automotive with auto grade LPDDR4 & high-bandwidth graphics
⦁ in Micron’s Feb 2017 Analyst conference we were introduced to a slide (slide 24) announcing ‘new memory’

mu slide24

—————————————–

My observations on Satisfactory Yield from the Feb 2017 Analyst conference slides

  • (a) Slide 20 (DRAM): “1Xnm Yield Map (Blue is good Die)” IMHO, Micron was showing 77% – 82% Sat Yield Range
  • (b) Slide 21 (NAND): “64 Tier Yield Map (Blue is good Die)” IMHO, Micron was showing 90% – 92% Sat Yield Range

IMHO, Micron improved Satisfactory Yield possibly when it dialed back the pace a notch. You are adding more layers and etching circuits atom by atom. More layers take more time anyway. If dialing back the pace a ‘smidge’ or a notch improves satisfactory yield, without substantially increasing other work-in-progress factors … you are going to reduce costs and every extra chip is like money in the bank. Note: Micron (Slide 22) states that it is getting approx. 4.3 Gb per mm2 or 25% more die per wafer relative to the competition’s 64 Tier 3D NAND. Go Micron!
—————————————–
Micron, and Micron’s competition, have educated us that node transitions REQUIRE more spacing between machines and lines. Micron, per those conference calls you all should be listening to, promised about 20 new node transitions over the year. Micron has stated that each node transition reduces the need for wafers by about 5%. I.E., if product *A* was using 100,000 wafers, after the node transition is 100% complete … only 95000 wafers will be produced … When you run out of cleanroom space due to node transition and the node transition, at 100% transition completion, is producing 5 percent fewer wafers, you either have to accept the wafers lost … or MOVE machines and setup lines in either existing, or add new, cleanroom space. Keep in mind that moving machines and lines takes time and reduces production.
When the new node(s) go into production, product is sent to customers as samples … customers have their own product life cycles and so will award design wins, and orders, when it benefits their product redesign schedule to do so. This is why there are node transitions ‘cross overs’ … because not every chip customer arrives at the same product life cycle endpoint at the same time. Plus, some customers for a particular node product may not want to change to the new node product … therefore some machines and lines may be relegated contractually, to continue producing a previous node until costs outweigh profits. Per Micron’s Cap-ex guidance (and Micron’s competitor Cap-ex guidance), it sounds like Micron is not going out and buying new machines, but Micron IMHO, will be moving existing machines, displaced by running out of cleanroom space, into the new cleanroom space.

… IMHO, Micron’s Satisfactory yield and ‘floating gate’ architecture lead to MY opinion on Micron’s pricing advantages over the competition. Micron’s (bragging rights) comment, February 2017, that ” … is getting approx. 4.3 Gb per mm2 or 25% more die per wafer relative to the competition’s 64 Tier 3D NAND.” is more related to Micron ‘s (Intel’s) ‘floating gate’ architecture which suggests that the competition has to build (and finish) FIVE (5) wafers of their ‘charge trap’ 64 tier 3D NAND, subject to comparable “Sat Yield’ numbers … to ‘maybe’ equal the output of FOUR (4) of Micron’s finished wafers.
Some suggested 64 tier 3D NAND equations:

  • (a) 170,000 wsm – (Micron’s wsm) = Competition’s wsm
  • (a.1) Wafer starts per month / TIME to finish a wafer = Finished Wafers per Month (fwm)
  • (b)  5 Competition’s (wsm) = competition’s pre-Sat Gb yield  to Micron’s 4 (wsm)
  • (c) Micron’s Finished wafers/month (fwm) x Sat yield = Micron’s Gb available as supply
  • (d) Competition’s Finished wafers/month (fwm) x Sat yield = Competition’s Gb supply
  • (e) Micron’s (fwm) + Competitions (fwm) = Industry Gb available as supply

When it comes to saleable ‘chips’ as SUPPLY, it is Finished wafers/month (fwm) x Sat yield = industry Gb available as supply … NOT wafer starts per month …  that matters.
… (smiling) there is more … such as calculating Gb going to packaged products; but, as the headaches in running the numbers were and are mine … you’ll have to wait while I collect more of Micron’s, industry customer demand for chips and packaged chips, and Micron’s competition’s, data to write with any degree of confidence, that there either will be, or won’t be, an industry oversupply issue in 2019.
The UBS DRAM projection of DRAM oversupply, based on projected wafer starts per month (wsm), what we KNOW from the above notes, plus, considering the IMPORTANT and missing info, … just doesn’t make sense.

II. The Micron Intel partnership

I respectfully disagree that the Intel and Micron partnership is ending. Intel (INTC) and Micron (MU.O) are partners in the IMFT and 50/50 owners of 3D Xpoint … At 25:11 minutes into Micron’s Q2’2018 Financial Call, just prior to the Q&A, we learn Micron choose to delay its funding of the IMFT because its first QuantX products will ship in the beginning of FY’2019 (Sept 2018?) and because Intel could, Intel funded 500 million of the IMFT. IMHO, Intel needs more 3D Xpoint and more 3D NAND and so the IMFT partnership will change but continue. IMHO, Intel is funding the IMFT to free up Micron’s cash for the addition of cleanroom space that will benefit both Micron and Intel. Micron will probably reimburse Intel with the 3D Xpoint and 3D NAND that Intel is going to need. IMHO, that $500 MILLION Intel funding of the IMFT should be a message that there is an Intel-Micron agreement (DRAM and ‘new’ memory) that we just do NOT know about yet.
If you have been listening to Micron’s conference calls, fireside chats, webcasts, etc. … you’d also know that Micron has stated that it wants to eliminate inventory by desiging and building DRAM, NAND and NOR, etc. that is compatible and interchangeable whether it is PC, or mobile, etc. As we all currently aware PC DRAM and PC NAND are not interchangeable w/mobile DRAM, mobile NAND. IMHO, it is this, and more, that is moving Micron down a new path, away from the IMFT partnership on NAND.

So, Intel’s $500 million says UBS gets a homework fail on the ending of the Intel-Micron partnership.

III. NAND flash memory and storage

Flash architecture is one of two flash technologies, (NAND and NOR) used in memory cards , thumb drives, and SSDs, automotive, US government, and US military, et cetera. A NAND gate (negative-AND) is a logic gate which produces an output which is false only if all its inputs are true.
The new kid on the block: Micron holds hundreds of patents on phase change memory. Note: people were hyper upset about Micron selling approx 29 milllion shares to pay down debt … but didn’t pay attention to the debt that was being paid off was to un-encumber the phase change patents which were serving as collateral for that debt.
Sales translate into revenues, revenues less expenses translate into earnings and therefore margins. Micron and Intel worked to produce 3D Xpoint and 3D TLC ‘floating gate’ NAND. SSDs are ‘packaged’ products. Packaging is the sale of multiple Micron chips to earn higher margins while still saving customers money. Because 3D TLC ‘floating gate’ NAND has a really good cost advantage over the competitions’ 3D ‘charge trap’ NAND, I suspect they (Micron’s competition) will play nice on NAND expansion to avoid a price war wherein Micron makes billions while the competition makes little to nothing, or worse, loses money trying to price match Micron’s 3D TLC ‘floating gate’ NAND SSDs. When Micron ships SSDs, and servers w/QuantX and 3D TLC NAND (September 2018?) the ONLY competition is Micron’s partner Intel (INTC) … so, without a price war, and with the industry continuing to focus on adding 3D layers to their skyscrapers … there should be, at this moment in time, little to no reason to speculate on margin compression or contraction.

In rebuttal, the UBS prediction of 170,000 wsm leading to a ‘projected’ 5% chips supply surplus leading to a ‘projected’ 55% decline in ASPs fails to account for the TIME adding additional layers takes ** and ** only leads to questions as to how many of those wsm will become FINISHED wafers within the month’s time frame. That said, one can argue, whether it is 3D Xpoint, 3D NAND, or 3D ‘new memory’ … there are JUST as many factors for arguing that adding MORE layers, requiring MORE process steps, taking MORE process time, WILL BE resulting in FEWER FINISHED wafers per month … resulting in DEMAND continually exceeding supply. Sadly, the UBS analysis is a homework fail, again, … because the failure to understand the who, what, where, when, and why … of the purported Supply/Demand cycles … and then assign a 3.5 p/ebitda is an epic blunder!

————————————————————————–

As I ran my end-of-day (EOD) Micron Tech (MU.O) Daily, Weekly, Monthly, (d-w-m) Micron Tech chart analysis Tuesday, April 10th, 2018, I thought you might like to review my notes above and below regarding Micron’s potential trading thru this Friday the 13th. This is a Bull/Bear, PROs, and CONs, Buy–Hold–Sell–Short (BHSS) chart analysis with the same capital conserving cautionary and pull back suggestions, as well as the occasional ‘contrarian’ bullish suggestions I have learned to appreciate and use to manage my investments with the Reward/RISK, or RISK/Reward Ratio. Where appropriate, I add information from my databases, spreadsheets, as well as my notes from conference calls and articles. As I own shares of Micron Tech, I want to know the good, the bad, and the ugly, the buy–hold–sell–short because it’s my money. I hope that sharing my homework, comments, notes and opinions helps you with your investment homework.

Note: Here, I am paying close attention to the Daily chart’s ‘contrarian advise’ ….  suggestions which are pointing to higher, not lower, Micron prices. That said, Facebook’s (FB) negative press, or President Trump’s tweets, could take the markets negative on Wednesday’s open … and Micron down with the markets.
… and now to the charts (Note: I do have additional info to add) :

mu 20180410d

Chart 1: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).

  • ———————–

Analysis of Micron’s Daily chart activity through Tuesday’s (4/10/2018) close at $50.48
The current trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered. If already holding short positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $53.50. Traders with remaining short positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of $58.80. Be prepared for a potential short term price rally back to the 53.05 area.
Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
⦁ If Long, exit all contracts at: $47.26
⦁ If Short, exit all contracts at: $61.72

Additional Daily chart info:
*Relative Strength Index (RSI) 46.081 rising from 39.349 on 4/9/2018 …
*Currently the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Micron is bearish since it is trading below its signal line. The MACD crossed below its signal line 11 trading days ago. Since Micron’s MACD crossed below its moving average, MICRON’s price has decreased 6.88%, and has ranged from a low of $47.26 to a high of $58.80. Micron’s MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range and there have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

Micron trend observations …
⦁ Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
⦁ Short term: Prices are stalling.
⦁ Intermediate term: Prices are trending.

Micron projected targets
⦁ The upper projected target is: $56.13.
⦁ The lower projected target is: $45.10.
⦁ Micron’s projected closing price is: $50.62.

Note: the above price projections are for reference only as Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets can exceed these projections up, or down, on any given day.

 

mu 20180410trgts

Chart 2: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C CandleVolume (also the ‘Featured Chart’)

The above chart incorporates the Daily chart (#1) analysis numbers:
Chart Annotation Key: Right side, listed bottom to top
Le = “If Long, exit all contracts at: $47.26″
ST rally = ” … short term price rally back to the 53.05 area.”
p-profit = “look to take partial profits on any retracement to $53.50.”
CCS = if short, suggested ” …capital conserving stops in the region of $58.80″
Se = “If Short, exit all contracts at: $61.72″

 

mu 20180410obv

Chart 3: Micron’s On Balance Volume (OBV) Daily is a positive 17.657.092. Micron’s OBV is in a clear long term uptrend and broke back above the up channel it has trending in, since 2/11/2016, on 2/15/2018.
⦁ ———————–

mu 20180410sma-d

Chart 4: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, Simple Moving Averages: sma3, sma9, sma20, sma50, sma100, sma200, sma400 … looking for moving average trends and crossovers
⦁ ———————–
(1.f) DAILY chart Moving Averages
The 3 period Simple Moving Average (sma3) at 48.97 is in a short term downtrend.
The 9 period Simple Moving Average (sma9) at 50.60 is in a short term downtrend.
The 20 period Simple Moving Average (sma20) at 54.87 is in a short term downtrend.
The 50 period Simple Moving Average (sma50) at 49.65 is in an uptrend.
The 100 period Simple Moving Average (sma100) at 46.85 is in an uptrend.
The 200 period Simple Moving Average (sma200) at 40.84 is in an uptrend.
The 400 period Simple Moving Average (sma400) at 32.08 is in an uptrend.

 

mu 20180410w

Chart 5: Micron Tech, Weekly, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2). Weekly chart Note: the CLAW formation in progress …
⦁ ———————–
Analysis of Micron’s Weekly chart activity through Tuesday’s (4/10/2018) close at $50.48
The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered. If already holding long positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $40.88. Traders with remaining long positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of $37.52. Be prepared for a potential short term price pull back to the $47.36 area.

Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
⦁ If Long, exit all contracts at: $37.52
⦁ If Short, exit all contracts at: $63.42

Additional Weekly chart info:
*Relative Strength Index (RSI) 56.94 rising from 54.59 on 4/6/2018 …
*Currently the Weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Micron is bullish since it is trading above its signal line.The MACD crossed above its signal line 5 trading weeks ago. Since Micron’s MACD crossed above its moving average, MICRON’s price has decreased 7.53%, and has ranged from a low of $47.26 to a high of $63.42. Micron’s Weekly MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range and there have been no divergence signals within the last 5 weekly periods.

Micron Weekly trend observations …
⦁ Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
⦁ Short term: Prices are moving.
⦁ Intermediate term: Prices are trending.

⦁ Note: this weekly chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

Micron Weekly projected targets (thru 4/13/2018)
⦁ The upper projected target is: $58.76.
⦁ The lower projected target is: $43.11
⦁ Micron’s projected closing price is: $50.94

Note: the above Weekly price projections are for reference only as Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets can exceed these projections up, or down, on any given day.

 

mu 20180410m

Chart 6: Micron Tech, Monthly, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2). Monthly chart Note: the CLAW formation in progress …
⦁ ———————–
Analysis of Micron’s Monthly chart activity through Tuesday’s (4/10/2018) close at $50.48

The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered. The current market price activity is Strongly Bullish and suggests favorable trade opportunities on the long side. If already holding long positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $26.85. Traders with remaining long positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of $26.85. Be prepared for a potential short term price pull back to the $39.44 area.

Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
⦁ If Long, exit all contracts at: $22.64
⦁ If Short, exit all contracts at: $63.42

 

To Recap the conclusion to Micron’s regular trading hours week:

 

mu 20180413d

Chart 7: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C CandleVolume thru Friday the 13th’s close

We are all working from the same Open, High, Low, Close, Volume (O-H-L-C-Vol) et cetera numbers … but, it is the BuyHoldSellShort (BHSS) analysis that provides the greatest Risk/Reward information. While analysis of past performance is NO guarantee of the exact same, or even similar, future results, the analysis still provides information. Information leads to learning, learning leads to knowlege and confidence. So, Tuesday’s (4/10/2018) close at $50.48, while accounting for UBS, Facebook, President Trump tweets, and other USA, as well as global, negativity might give people headaches (including me) … Micron’s closing price Friday the 13th was $52.23, a 3 day gain of +$1.75, or +3.467 percent.  

Homework in progress for next week, see:

https://vet67to82.wordpress.com/2018/04/17/micron-tech-mu-20180416-20180420/

 

—  Wednesday,  4/11/2018   thru   Friday 4/13/2018  ——

 

  Hope the above MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O) calculations for Wednesday, 4/11/2018, day, week, and month (d-w-m) of April 2018,  helps your investing and trading planning today …

 

3 thoughts on “Micron Tech (MU) 20180410 – 20180413

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