Updates in progress (4/19/2018 12:55 AM ET)
Friday the 13th is behind us. While it would appear Monday’s US markets open could be stressful considering geo-political RISKS are elevated after the USA, the United Kingdom, and France carried out 105 missle attacks in Syria to send a message (to Syria’s Assad, Russia, and Iran) that banned chemical attacks on defenseless civilians will come with consequences …
Russia (President Putin) has interests in expanding its (his) influence in the Middle East. Russia was building the Iranian nuclear reactor at the heart of the Iranian nuclear reactor fueling and centrifuges dispute. The penalties against Iran were no doubt viewed as an ‘us against the world’ embarrassment to Russia. IMHO, Russia views the missle strikes in Syria, strikes it was helpless to stop, as another embarrassment undermining its political agenda and goals in the Middle East. It would be prudent to put considerable thought, discussion, and debate into President Putin’s threats …
The Iranian Republican Guard no doubt remembers Syria as pretty much its only ally in the old Iraq- Iran wars … and does not want a Syria to have a democratic representative government of ANY type. Iran is still aggravated that the USA didn’t take sides in the Iraq – Iran wars but SOLD weapons to BOTH sides. Yep, the USA did sell weapons to both sides. Lastly, the Iranian Republican Guard no doubt seeks to use the Syrian conflict to infiltrate into its long term adversary Saudi Arabia’s territory to start internal troubles there.
At this time the pre-market DJIA (+146.00), S&P500 (+14.50), Nasdaq (+44.25), and Russell (+7.80) E-mini futures are up a lot. As Micron’s performance Monday 4/16/2018 thru Friday 4/20/2018, to see the charts, notes, observations … and my opinions below.
Note and Disclaimer: As I ran my end-of-day (EOD) Micron Tech (MU.O) Daily, Weekly, Monthly, (d-w-m) Micron Tech chart analysis Sunday, April 15th, 2018, I thought you might like to review my notes above and below regarding Micron’s potential trading thru this 3rd Friday of the month options expiry … Friday the 20th, 2018. This is a Bull/Bear, PROs, and CONs, Buy–Hold–Sell–Short (BHSS) chart analysis with the same capital conserving cautionary and pull back suggestions, as well as the occasional ‘contrarian’ bullish (or bearish) suggestions I have learned to appreciate and use to manage my investments with the Reward/RISK, or RISK/Reward Ratio. Where appropriate, I add information from my databases, spreadsheets, as well as my notes from conference calls and articles. As I own shares of Micron Tech, I want to know the good, the bad, and the ugly, the buy–hold–sell–short because it’s my money. I write this analysis myself, it is MY homework, and I am not paid, or seeking to be paid for sharing this analysis. I hope that sharing my homework, comments, notes and opinions helps you with your investment homework.
- Related: Micron Tech (MU) 20180410 – 20180413
Chart 1: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C CandleVolume thru Friday’s close
The above chart incorporates the Daily chart (#2) analysis numbers:
- Chart Annotation Key: Right side, listed bottom to top
⦁ Le = “If Long, exit all contracts at: $47.26”
⦁ ST rally = ” … short term price rally back to the 53.05 area.”
⦁ p-profit = “look to take partial profits on any retracement to $53.50.”
⦁ CCS = (if short) suggested ” …capital conserving stops in the region of $58.80″
⦁ Se = “If Short, exit all contracts at: $61.72”
Based on Chart #1 above, from Micron’s low of $47.26 on Friday (4/6/2018) through Friday’s (4/13/2018) close @ $52.23, Micron has rallied back $4.97, or about a five trading day gain of 10.5163% into the test area between $53.05 and $53.50. Tuesday’s (4/10/2018) close at $50.48, while accounting for UBS, Facebook, President Trump tweets, and other USA as well as global negativity might give people headaches (including me) … Micron’s closing price Friday the 13th was $52.23, a 3 day gain of +$1.75, or +3.467 percent.
It is only reasonable to expect short term trader profit taking and a retest of the $53.05 and $53.50 targets … Note: the ‘new’ contrarian price target to watch for is a rally back to $52.99 … a mere 6c below last Wednesday thru Friday’s $53.05.
Chart 2: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).
Analysis of Micron’s Daily chart activity through Friday’s (4/13/2018) close @ $52.23
In three trading days, the Daily chart analysis has switched from the Tuesday (4/10/2018) “trend is down” and ” … all orders on the short side may be considered:” to the following:
The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered. If already holding long positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $47.26. Traders with remaining long positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of $47.26.
Be prepared for a potential short term price advance back to the $52.99 area.
Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:
If Long, exit all contracts at: $47.26
If Short, exit all contracts at: $58.80
Additional Daily chart info:
*Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50.4257 rising from 46.081 on 4/10/2018 …
*Currently the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Micron is bearish since it is trading below its signal line. The MACD crossed below its signal line 14 trading days ago. Since Micron’s MACD crossed below its moving average, MICRON’s price has decreased 3.65%, and has ranged from a low of $47.26 to a high of $58.80. Micron’s MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range and there have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.
Micron Daily trend observations …
⦁ Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
⦁ Short term: Prices are stalling.
⦁ Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
Micron Daily projected targets (thru 4/20/2018)
⦁ The upper projected target is: $57.87.
⦁ The lower projected target is: $46.93.
⦁ The projected closing price is: $52.40.
Note: the above Daily price projections are for reference only as Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets can exceed these projections up, or down, on any given day.
Lam Research Corp (LRCX) reported after the bell Tuesday evening. Lam Research beat analyst estimates and raised guidance … the greedy markets weren’t satisfied. Lam Research pulled back in after hours trading, pulled back in pre-market trading, was in the red all day long … and pulled back more in Wednesday’s after hours trading. This treatment of Lam Research dragged down the chips industry. Micron gapped down, opening at $51.4548, but things turned around for Micron. Micron hit a intraday high of $54.27, after recovering from an intraday low of $50.6776, and closed at $54.01 up +$1.75, or (+3.35%). Micron was up $0.24 in after hours trading. The story was, and is in the reversal with Micron’s close up $3.3324 from the low, or (+6.576%) from the low.
As the chart analysis above suggested, along with Micron’s fundamentals supported by Micron’s guidance, is garnering upgrades, like Micron’s credit rating upgrade to BB+ from BB …. and it was another analyst report Wednesday that forced shorts to cover. Micron worked its way back and forth across $52.99, then the same with $53.05, and $53.50. Micron closed +1.777 above its Pivot point which is Strongly Bullish. Micron’s low was 1.09 below s1. and 0.596 below s2 which is a LRCX attributable negative. Micron’s High was 1.543 above r1 and 1.077 above r2, also Strongly Bullish.
For tomorrow, Micron’s Pivot Point is $52.99. Support (s1) is $51.70. Support (s2) is $49.39. Resistance (r1) is $55.29. Resistance (r2) is $56.58.
For health reasons, I will have to return to add the weekly and monthly chart analyses after I have gone thru the rest of my homework.