MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) (d-w-m) for Monday (20180820)

 

  Updated 8/23/2018: Added Daily Pivot Point, Support, and Resistance Section.  These numbers will be updated every day in this blog as we head into  Friday 8/24/2018.  Note: Monthly options expiry Friday (8/31/2018).  It’s not too soon to start thinking about Quadruple Witching expiry Friday (9/21/2018).   Homework in progress and more to add.   

  News:

Micron announced that it will hold its fiscal fourth quarter earnings conference call on Thursday, September 20, 2018 at 4:30 P.M. ET (2:30 P.M. MDT). A live webcast of the call will be available via the Investor Relations website at http://investors.micron.com.

  HM! Interesting that Micron is holding its Conference Call after regular hours trading ends the day before Quadruple Witching Expiry.

===================================================

Third Friday of the month Expiry, August 17th, 2018, Micron Tech closed at $47.11 up one cent or 0.02 percent. Year to date, Micron is still up 14.57 percent. Expiry Friday Recap: Micron’s Close was -$0.348 below its Pivot Point for Friday (negative). Micron’s Intraday Low was -0.986 below its Support (s1) (negative) and was -$0.492 below its Support (s2) (negative). Micron was -$0.592 below Resistance (r1) (negative) and was -$1.444 below Resistance (r2) (negative).
Micron’s numbers for Monday’s trading: Micron’s Pivot Point is $46.697. Micron’s Support (s1) is $46.033. Micron’s Support (s2) is $44.957. Micron’s Resistance (r1) is $47.771 and Resistance (r2) is $48.437.

I am not a Conspiracy Theorist. I do NOT trade options and I do NOT short stocks; but, I do pay attention to them both. That said, from the Expiry close on 7/20/2018 to the Expiry close on 8/17/2018, ONE month’s trading, Micron has pulled back $7.91 per share from its July 20th close pps.  We KNOW from Micron’s Q3 conference call, Micron intended, and wants, to buy back $2 billion of debt this quarter and, especially, wants to buy back Convertible Debt Obligations (CDO) to reduce dilution. Hm!

 September 21st, 2018 will be third Friday of the month Quadruple Witching (QW) Expiry close.

This caused me to think if Scenario Analysis could reveal if Sell side Analysts were up to something that could be masked within the geo-political RISKS of trade tariff tiffs (and Tariff Trade War threats), Emerging Markets currency meltdowns, sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Turkey, et cetera.
The scenario that I was specifically looking at is if Micron sucessfully buys back the debt, including CDO debt, thanks to the pps drop, Micron will pay LESS than expected, … and/or retire MORE debt, which will improve fundamentals, and while it won’t help Sales or Revenues, reducing debt will help Micron’s bottom line Earnings. So, that could lead to a Micron Q4’2018 earnings SURPRISE.  And, … if those doing their own homework, already arrived at this same conclusion … then they would be buying suddenly cheaper options and individual stock futures, which I do not do, could lead to spectacular gains. Yep, Hm!  Earnings surprises, that improve Micron’s Fundamentals, should (a) garner credit upgrades, which then (b) garner analyst upgrades … winking-smiley Unfortunately, Scenario Analysis suggested trying, or proving, a Micron Tech pps manipulation Conspiracy was ‘Inconclusive’  sad smiley ; however, Scenario Analysis ‘suggested’ we could see a $16 to $17 rally in Micron’s pps like that which occurred in the ONE trading month between the Expiry close on 2/16/2018 and the Quadruple Witching (QW) Expiry close on 3/16/2018 … which was $16.37.  Below, I provide two tables, 2018 YTD, and 2017, from my spreadsheets tracking Micron’s pps Gain/Loss from Expiry to Expiry close.

I. Table One
2018 YTD Expiry to Expiry Close
Close Date, Expiry, Gain/Loss
12/15/2017 QW Expiry (3.76)
1/19/2018 Expiry 0.35
2/16/2018 Expiry 1.46
3/16/2018 QW Expiry 16.37  winking-smiley
4/20/2018 Expiry (9.96)
5/18/2018 Expiry 2.77
6/15/2018 QW Expiry 4.84
7/20/2018 Expiry (3.21)
8/17/2018 Expiry (7.91)

II. Table Two
2017 Expiry to Expiry Close
Close Date, Expiry, Gain/Loss
12/16/2016 QW Expiry 1.06
1/20/2017 Expiry 1.69
2/17/2017 Expiry 1.39
3/17/2017 QW Expiry 2.45
4/21/2017 Expiry 1.52
5/19/2017 Expiry 0.50
6/16/2017 QW Expiry 2.04
7/21/2017 Expiry 2.15
8/18/2017 Expiry (1.63)
9/15/2017 QW Expiry 4.27
10/20/2017 Expiry 6.85
11/17/2017 Expiry 4.66
12/15/2017 QW Expiry (3.76)

 

  Micron’s Technical Analysis

This is a Bull/Bear, PROs, and CONs, BuyHoldSellShort (BHSS) chart analysis with the same capital conserving cautionary and pull back suggestions, as well as the occasional ‘contrarian’ bullish (or bearish) suggestions I have learned to appreciate and use to manage my investments with the Reward/RISK, or RISK/Reward Ratio.
Where appropriate, I add information from my databases, spreadsheets, as well as my notes from conference calls and articles. As I own shares of Micron Tech, I want to know the good, the bad, and the ugly, the buyholdsellshort because it’s my money. I write this analysis myself, it is MY homework, and I am not paid, or seeking to be paid for sharing this analysis. I hope that sharing my homework, comments, notes and opinions helps you with your investment homework.

… and now to the charts (Note: I still have additional info to add) :

 

By the numbers, This week vs. Last week:   despite unpredictable President Trump’s tweets, despite the FED possibly raising rates two more times this year, despite last week’s third Friday of the month expiry, despite China tariffs being ramped … This week’s suggestions on taking partial profits, using capital conserving stops, and pull back numbers is either unchanged or suggesting higher prices.  These are Contrarian Investing suggestions signaling a change could be, or is, developing.   

      ——————————————————–

 

 MU 20180817d

Chart 1: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C Candle Volume thru Friday’s close

 Chart #1 Annotation Key: Right side, listed bottom to top, the above chart incorporates the Daily chart analysis numbers listed below:

  • ·          Lx = “If Long, exit all contracts at: $45.62”
  • ·          ST rally = ” … short term price advance back to the $50.94 area.
  • ·          p-profit = “if Short look to take partial profits on any retracement to $53.53”
  • ·          CCS = (if Short) suggested ” …capital conserving stops (CCS) in the region of $53.55 
  • ·          Sx = “If Short, exit all contracts at: $54.25”

 Note the Channel, thru Friday’s (8/17/2018 Close, in the above chart is 111 trading days with a slightly negative slope of -0.00129.

 MU 20180817d1

Chart 2: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).  Note: when spreads widen between support and resistance, Micron’s pps tends to decline.  When spreads narrow, the suggestion is Micron’s pps rallies.

(1)  Analysis of DAILY chart activity through Friday’s (8/17/2018) close at $47.11

    Micron’s current Daily chart trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered.  The current market price activity  is Strongly Bearish and suggests favorable trade opportunities on the short side.   If already holding short positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $53.53. Traders with remaining short positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops in the region of $53.55.  Be prepared for a potential short-term price advance back to the $50.94  area.

   Suggested placement of capital conserving stops:

  •   If Long, exit all contracts at     $45.62
  •   If Short, exit all contracts at     $54.25

 

 

Additional Daily chart info:

(1.a) On the EOD daily chart basis, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) is bearish since it is trading below its signal line. The MACD crossed below its signal line 18 trading days ago.  Since the MACD crossed below its moving average, MICRON TECH ORD’s price has decreased 11.40%, and has ranged from a low of $45.62 high to a of $55.40.  The MACD is in an Oversold range. Prices may continue to move lower for some time.  Wait for prices to move higher before considering any long positions. There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 trading days.

        MACD Value:  -1.679        Signal Line:  -1.133

 

(1.b) Friday’s (8/17/2018)  Relative Strength Index (RSI) for MU was 25.7756 in a  downtrend since May 29th, 2018.   The RSI calculations are based on the Close over a 14-trading day period. 

MU 20180817obv

 (1.c) Micron’s On Balance Volume (OBV) is a positive 16884902.0, but declining.  Micron’s OBV is in an uptrend channel.

 

1.d  Daily Chart  Trend Info

  •  ·         Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
  •  ·         Short term: Prices are moving.
  •  ·         Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
  •  
  • ·         Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

 

1. e  Daily Chart Price Projections

  • ·         Note:  prices are vulnerable to a correction rally towards $52.90.
  •  ·         The upper projected Target is: $50.61.
  •  ·         The lower projected Target is: $43.11.
  •  ·         The projected closing price is: $46.86. 

 Note: the above DAILY chart price projection ranges are for reference only and can be easily exceeded by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.

 

 MU 20180817smad

(1.f) DAILY chart Moving Averages

  •  The 3 period Simple Moving Average (sma3) at 47.233 is in a downtrend.
  •  The 9 period Simple Moving Average (sma9) at 50.413 is in a downtrend.
  •  The 20 period Simple Moving Average (sma20) at 51.963 is in a downtrend.
  •  The 50 period Simple Moving Average (sma50) at 54.574 is in a downtrend.
  •  The 100 period Simple Moving Average (sma100) at 53.741 is in a downtrend.
  •  The 200 period Simple Moving Average (sma200) at 50.009 is in an uptrend.
  •  The 400 period Simple Moving Average (sma400) at 40.078 is in an uptrend.

 

  ———————–

 

  Pivot Point, Support, and Resistance Info

If Micron’s pps is above the Pivot Point, the market is Bullish, and the Pivot point is also Support.  If Micron’s pps is below the Pivot Point, the market is Bearish, and the Pivot Point is Resistance.

 

(1)   Monday (8/20/2018) Recap:  Micron closed at $48.07, up +$0.96, or +2.04 percent.  Micron’s Close was a positive +$1.373 above the Pivot Point.  Micron’s Intraday Low was a positive +$0.441 above Support (s1) and a positive +$1.518 above Support (s2). Micron’s Intraday High was a positive +$0.837 above Resistance (r1) and a positive +$0.173 above Resistance (r2).  The first positive 5 for five since 7/13/2018. 

 As to Micron for Tuesday (8/21/2018): Micron’s Pivot Point is $47.718.  Micron’s close at $48.07 is already above the Pivot Point … another positive for tomorrow’s trading.  Micron’s Support (s1) will be $46.826 and Support (s2) will be $45.582.  Micron’s Resistance (r1) will be $48.962 and Resistance (r2) is $49.854.

(2) Tuesday (8/21/2018) Recap:  Micron closed at $49.94, up +$1.87, or +3.89 percent.  Micron’s Close was a positive +$2.222 above the Pivot Point.  Micron’s Intraday Low was a positive +$2.044 above Support (s1) and a positive +$3.288 above Support (s2). Micron’s Intraday High was a positive +$1.408 above Resistance (r1) and a positive +$0.516 above Resistance (r2).  The second, and first back to back, positive 5 for five since 7/12/2018. 

 As to Micron for Wednesday (8/22/2018): Micron’s Pivot Point is $49.727.  Micron’s close at $49.94 is already above the Pivot Point … another positive for tomorrow’s trading.  Micron’s Support (s1) will be $49.083 and Support (s2) will be $48.227.  Micron’s Resistance (r1) will be $50.583 and Resistance (r2) is $51.227.

(3) Wednesday (8/22/2018) Recap:  Micron closed at $50.24, up +$0.30, or +0.60 percent.  Micron’s Close was a positive +$0.513 above the Pivot Point.  Micron’s Intraday Low was a positive +$0.787 above Support (s1) and a positive +$1.643 above Support (s2). Micron’s Intraday High was a positive +$0.067 above Resistance (r1) and a negative -$0.577 below Resistance (r2).

 As to Micron for Thursday (8/23/2018): Micron’s Pivot Point is $50.253.  Micron’s close at $50.24 is -$0.013 below the Pivot Point (neutral)  … suggesting a possible negative Micron Open  for tomorrow’s trading.  Micron’s Support (s1) will be $49.857 and Support (s2) will be $49.473.  Micron’s Resistance (r1) will be $50.637 and Resistance (r2) is $51.033.

(4) Thursday (8/23/2018) Recap:  Micron closed at $49.70, down -$0.54, or down -1.07 percent.  Micron’s close was -$0.553 below its Pivot Point (negative).  Micron’s Intraday Low was -$0.457 below Support (s1) (negative) and was -$0.073 below Support (s2) (negative).  Micron’s Intraday High was -$0.397 below Resistance (r1) (negative) and -$0.793 below Resistance (r2) (negative).

As to Micron for Friday (8/24/2018):  Micron’s Pivot Point is $49.78.  Micron’s close at $49.70 is -$0.08 below the Pivot Point (negative)  … suggesting a possible negative Micron Open  for tomorrow’s trading.  Micron’s Support (s1) will be $49.32 and Support (s2) will be $48.94.  Micron’s Resistance (r1) will be $50.16 and Resistance (r2) is $50.62. 

Note:  (a) Yesterday $16 Billion in USA tariffs went into effect against China and China’s retaliatory $16 billion went into effect vs. the USA’s exports today.  (b) Day 2 of ‘Low Level’ China trade negotiations ended without any new suggestions from China to address USA trade issues.  The next tranche of USA tariffs against China is $200 BILLION … China has no equal tit-for-tat tariff dollar amount because China exports way more to the USA.  IMHO, China guessed, and guessed wrong, that the tariffs were a bluff … and now has to negotiate BEFORE the $200 Billion proves to also NOT be a bluff.  

 

 

==== ===== ===== =====

—  Monday, 8/20/2018 thru Friday 8/24/2018  ——

 

  Hope the above MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O) calculations for Monday, 8/20/2018, day, week, and month (d-w-m) of August 2018,  helps your investing and trading planning today …

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