MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) (d-w-m) for Tuesday (20180904)

Updated 9/7/2018: See Daily Pivot Point, Support, and Resistance Section (PPt-Sup-Res) below.  The (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers will be updated every day in this blog section as we head into  Friday 9/7/2018.

Notes:  (a) 9/5/2018 USA – Canada trade negotiations expected to resume.  (b) 9/6/2018 USA tariffs on an additional $200 billion dollars of China’s exports to the USA,  (c) 9/20/2018, Micron’s Q4’2018 and yearend earnings report and after-hours Financial Call.  (d) It’s not too soon to start thinking about Quadruple Witching expiry Friday (9/21/2018).  Homework in progress and more to add.

    Interesting that Micron is holding its Conference Call after regular hours trading ends the day before September’s 3rd Friday of the month Quadruple Witching Expiry.

 

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Date  Open  High  Low  Close* Vol/100
8/31/2018 52.7 53.23 52.22 52.52 299373

   

The Daily chart analysis switched its ‘short’ opinion to a ‘long’ opinion on Thursday (8/30/2018).

Last Friday, Micron Tech closed at $52.52 down 24 cents or -0.45 percent. Year to date, Micron is up 27.72 percent.  Friday Recap: Canada left the trade negotiations without an agreement.  That and President Trump’s comments sent the markets lower.   Micron’s Close was -$0.093 below its Pivot Point for Friday (negative). Micron’s Intraday Low ($52.22) was +$0.673 above its Support (s1) (positive) and was +$1.887 above its Support (s2) (positive). Micron’s Intraday High ($53.23) was -$0.597 below Resistance (r1) (negative) and was -$1.663 below Resistance (r2) (negative).

    Tuesday begins the first week of trading in September 2018 with the markets looking Wednesday for Canada to resolve differences and embrace the USA Mexico trade agreement the President Trump wants to replace the current NAFTA pact. Canada returns to the negotiations on Wednesday, and we have expectations of increased volatility as the Canada trade negotiations could drag on.

Micron’s (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers for Monday’s trading: Micron’s Pivot Point is $52.657. Micron’s Support (s1) is $52.083. Micron’s Support (s2) is $51.647. Micron’s Resistance (r1) is $53.093 and Resistance (r2) is $53.667Micron’s close at $52.52 is -$0.137 below its Pivot Point for Monday (negative).

See also 

Geo-political RISKS, the USAChina Trade Dispute

 Outlook for NAND and DRAM:  

  If we look at the Samsung 1 Terabyte ready Galaxy 9 commercial, * and * the Verizon, AT&T, and now T-Mobile  ‘Galaxy 9’ advertisements … there is a FOMO (Fear of Missing OUT) that will force Samsung’s DRAM/NAND customers to WANT to include MORE memory in their cell phones and gadgets. Micron’s customers, competing with Samsung, will, no doubt also want MORE memory. (Thank you, Samsung) So, IMHO, the mobile content ramp is just beginning, and the sell side analysts DIDN’T see it coming …. which suggests they’ll have to (egg on face) adjust their ‘cycles’ analyses chip supply/demand ‘surplus supply’ to account for ‘surplus supply estimates’ getting swallowed up by simply increasing content in the gadgets that are being built and sold.

  In addition, customers of sell side analysts and their reports, will be reminded every time they see advertisements for Terabyte ready gadgets, that the sell side reports ‘guessed’ wrong.  The management of every company will always have the most information.  The analyst models need to be fixed to account for technology advance, the pace of that advance, and that chip companies can, and should be expected, to arrive at solutions to mitigate some, or all, of any excess chip supply conditions.  Analysis of the past provides NO GUARANTEE of the same, or even similar current, or future, results. 

 ===================================================

   Interesting that Micron is holding its Conference Call after regular hours trading ends the day before Quadruple Witching Expiry.

 ===================================================

  Micron’s Technical Analysis

  This is a Bull/Bear, PROs, and CONs, BuyHoldSellShort (BHSS) chart analysis with the same capital conserving cautionary and pull back suggestions, as well as the occasional ‘contrarian’ bullish (or bearish) suggestions I have learned to appreciate and use to manage my investments with the Reward/RISK, or RISK/Reward Ratio.
Where appropriate, I add information from my databases, spreadsheets, as well as my notes from conference calls and articles. As I own shares of Micron Tech, I want to know the good, the bad, and the ugly, the
buyholdsellshort because it’s my money. I write this analysis myself, it is MY homework, and I am not paid, or seeking to be paid for sharing this analysis. I hope that sharing my homework, comments, notes and opinions helps you with your investment homework.

 

  If you missed it, please see my last two blog posts for additional Tech Sector  geo-political RISKS comparison numbers, trend, and additional information which will not be boringly repeated below, like Micron’s Expiry close to Expiry close performance.

 

… and now to the MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O) charts

(Note: I still have additional info to add) :

 

      ——————————————————–

  

 mu 20180831d

Chart 1: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C Candle Volume thru Friday’s close

 Chart #1 Annotation Key: Right side, listed bottom to top, the above chart incorporates the Daily chart analysis numbers listed below:

  •  · Lx = “If Long, exit all contracts at: $45.62
  • · ST pullback = ” … short term price pullback to the $51.36 area.
  • · p-profit = “if Long look to take partial profits on any retracement to $48.87
  • · CCS = (if Long) suggested ” …capital conserving stops (CCS) in the region of $45.62 
  • · Sx = “If Short, exit all contracts at: $53.68

 Note the Raff Regression Channel, thru Friday’s (8/31/2018) Close, in the above chart is 121 trading days with a slightly negative slope of -0.0127.  The 8/31/2018 values of the channel are: 63.968, 53.241, and 42.515. 

 

mu 20180831d1

Chart 2: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).  Note: when spreads widen between support and resistance, Micron’s pps tends to decline.  When spreads narrow, the suggestion is Micron’s pps rallies. The CLAW formation w/Supports (s1,s2) pointing up to the Pivot Point (PPt) and Resistances (r1,r2) pointing down to the Pivot Point suggest a ‘move’ is at hand, and more homework is required to determine if that move is up, or down.   

Analysis of DAILY chart activity through Friday’s (8/31/2018)  close at $52.52

   The Daily chart analysis switched its ‘short’ opinion to a ‘long’ opinion on Thursday (8/30/2018).  The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered.  If already holding long positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $48.87.   Traders with remaining long positions after profit taking should consider placing capital conserving stops (CCS) in the region of $45.62.   Be prepared for a potential short-term price pull back to the $51.36 area.

    Suggested placement of capital conserving stops (CCS):

  •   If Long, exit all contracts at:     $45.62
  •   If Short, exit all contracts at:     $53.68

 

Additional Daily chart info:

(1.a) On the EOD daily chart basis, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) is bullish since it is trading above its signal line. Micron’s MACD crossed above its signal line 5 trading days ago.  Since the MACD crossed above its moving average, MICRON TECH ORD’s price has increased +3.59%, and has ranged from a low of $49.92 high to a of $53.68.  The MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.  There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 trading days.

        MACD Value:  -0.305        Signal Line:  -0.810

 

(1.b) Friday’s (8/31/2018)  Relative Strength Index (RSI) for MU was 53.9409 up from Friday’s (8/24/2018) 46.5589.   The RSI calculations are based on the Close over a 14-trading day period. 

  Note: other Momentum indicators generated ‘buy’ signals last week:  The Stoch on (8/20/2018), the CCI on (8/21/2018), and as noted above, the MACD on (8/24/2018).  A Stoch ‘sell’ signal was generated on 8/31/2018.

 

mu 20180831obv

  (1.c) Micron’s On Balance Volume (OBV) is a positive 16421225.0, down from last week’s,  but while declining, Micron’s OBV is in an uptrend channel.

1.d  Daily Chart  Trend Info

  •           Overall, the bias in prices is:  Sideways.
  •          Short term: Prices are stalling.
  •         Intermediate term: Prices are trending.

 1. e  Daily Chart Price Projections

  •        The upper projected Target is: $56.23.
  •        The lower projected Target is: $48.53.
  •        The projected closing price is: $52.38. 
  •  Note: the above DAILY chart price projection ranges are for reference only and can be easily exceeded by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.

 

mu 20180831smad

 

(1.f) DAILY chart Moving Averages

  •  The 3 period Simple Moving Average (sma3) at 52.37 is in an uptrend.
  •   The 9 period Simple Moving Average (sma9) at 51.3444 is in an uptrend.
  •   The 20 period Simple Moving Average (sma20) at 50.828 is in a downtrend.
  •  The 50 period Simple Moving Average (sma50) at 52.8396 is in a downtrend.
  •  The 100 period Simple Moving Average (sma100) at 53.7843 is in an uptrend.
  •  The 200 period Simple Moving Average (sma200) at 50.3427 is in an uptrend.
  •  The 400 period Simple Moving Average (sma400) at 40.7783 is in an uptrend.

 Note the ‘bullish’ cross overs by the 3 period and 9 period SMAs.  

  ———————–

 

 

  Pivot Point, Support, and Resistance Info

If Micron’s pps is above the Pivot Point, the market is Bullish, and the Pivot point is also Support.  If Micron’s pps is below the Pivot Point, the market is Bearish, and the Pivot Point is Resistance.

(1) See Friday’s Recap and Tuesday’s numbers in the above remarks.

  • Monday (9/3/2018) the US markets are/were closed for the Labor Day holiday.

 

Date  Open  High  Low  Close* Vol/100
8/31/2018 52.7 53.23 52.22 52.52 299373
9/4/2018 52.135 52.3 50.7146 51.93 289751
9/5/2018 51.39 51.6 49.07 49.54 391251

 

 

  1. Tuesday (9/4/2018) Recap: Micron closed at $51.93, down -0.59, or down 1.12 percent. Micron’s Close was a negative -$0.727 below the Pivot Point.  Micron’s Intraday Low was a negative -$1.369 below Support (s1) and a negative -$0.932 below Support (s2). Micron’s Intraday High was a negative -$0.793 below Resistance (r1) and a negative -$1.367 below Resistance (r2).

 As to Micron for Wednesday (9/5/2018): Micron’s Pivot Point is $51.648.  Micron’s close at $51.93 is already above the Pivot Point, another positive for Wednesday’s trading.  Micron’s Support (s1) will be $50.996 and Support (s2) will be $50.063.  Micron’s Resistance (r1)  will be $52.582 and Resistance (r2) is $53.234.  Unfortunately, a looming RISK-Off negative for Wednesday’s trading is the threat of implementation of tariffs on $200 billion of China’s exports to the USA.  Note: Talking heads and their guests keep blundering by wrongly referring to “ … $200 billion of tariffs … “ instead of what they SHOULD be saying which is “ … tariffs on two hundred billion … “

  1. Wednesday Recap: Micron closed at $49.54, down -$2.39, or down -4.6 percent.  Micron’s Close was a negative -$2.108 below the Pivot Point.  Micron’s Intraday Low was a negative -$1.926 below Support (s1) and a negative -$0.993 below Support (s2). Micron’s Intraday High was a negative -$0.982  below Resistance (r1) and a negative -$1.634 below Resistance (r2).

As to Micron for Thursday (9/6/2018): Micron’s Pivot Point is $50.070.  Micron’s close at $49.54 is already below the Pivot Point.  Micron’s Support (s1) will be $48.54 and Support (s2) will be $47.54.  Micron’s Resistance (r1) will be $51.070 and Resistance (r2) is $52.600.  That Micron closed below the Pivot Point and with due consideration to the looming China tariffs expectations are for a negative market and a negative trading day for Micron shares.

4. Thursday Recap:  Micron closed  at $44.65, down -$4.89, or down -9.87 percent.  Micron stated at a Citi conference that NAND prices pulled back in the 3rd quarter, but, Micron said that average selling pricing (ASPs) picked up in multichip packages that included DRAM and NAND.  Baird reduced Micron’s price target from $100 to $75.  Micron’s Close was a negative  -$5.42 below the Pivot Point.  Micron’s Intraday Low was a negative -$4.48 below Support (s1) and a negative -$3.48 below Support (s2). Micron’s Intraday High was a negative -$2.62  below Resistance (r1) and a negative -$4.15 below Resistance (r2). 

As to Micron for Friday (9/7/2018): Micron’s Pivot Point is $45.72.  Micron’s close at $44.65 is already below the Pivot Point.  Micron’s Support (s1) will be $42.99 and Support (s2) will be $41.33.  Micron’s Resistance (r1) will be $47.38 and Resistance (r2) is $50.11.  That Micron closed below the Pivot Point and with due consideration to the looming tariffs expectations are for a negative market and a negative trading day for Micron shares on Friday. 

 

 

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—  Tuesday, 9/4/2018 thru Friday 9/7/2018  ——

 

  Hope the above MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O) calculations for Tuesday, 9/4/2018, day, week, and month (d-w-m) of September 2018,  helps your investing and trading planning today …

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