MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) (d-w-m) for Monday (20180910)

In Memory of the nearly 3000 that lost their lives in a horrendous terrorist attack 17 years ago.

Updated 9/14/2018:  On a positive note, it would appear the short-term bottom in Micron’s pps is in.  See Daily Pivot Point, Support, and Resistance Section (PPt-Sup-Res) below.  The (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers will be updated every day in this blog section as we head into  Friday 9/14/2018.

Note:  (a) 9/20/2018, Micron’s Q4’2018 and yearend earnings report and after-hours Financial Call.  (b) It’s not too soon to start thinking about Quadruple Witching expiry Friday (9/21/2018).  (c) Some S&P 500 Tech Sector companies face GICS Sector, industry, and/or sub-industry reclassification after the markets close Friday (9/28/2018).      Homework in progress and more to add.

 

    Last Friday, Micron Tech closed at $44.86 up 21 cents or +0.47 percent. Year to date, Micron is up 9.1 percent.  Friday Recap: Canada trade negotiations ended the week without an agreement.  President Trump’s trade comments and tweets about Canada, China, and now Japan, sent the U.S. markets lower.   Micron’s Close was -$0.860 below its Pivot Point for Friday (negative). Micron’s Intraday Low was +$1.570 above its Support (s1) (positive) and was +$3.23 above its Support (s2) (positive). Micron was -$0.920 below Resistance (r1) (negative) and was -$3.650 below Resistance (r2) (negative).  The Mr. Hyde, Dr. Jeckle Daily chart analysis switched its ‘short’ opinion to a ‘long’ opinion on Thursday (8/30/2018), then back to short Tuesday 9/4/2018.

Micron’s (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers for Monday’s trading:

  Micron’s Pivot Point is $45.323. Micron’s Support (s1) is $44.187. Micron’s Support (s2) is $43.513. Micron’s Resistance (r1) is $45.997 and Resistance (r2) is $47.133Micron’s close at $44.86 is -$0.463 below its Pivot Point for Monday (negative)

 

Geo-political RISKS, The USA – China Trade Dispute

    Trade:  Waiting for the other shoe to drop.  We have tariffs imposed on $50 billion of Chinese exports to the USA. Friday ended the comment period on proposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports to the USA.  President Trump indicated willingness to implement tariffs on all, or besides the $50 billion levied, the $200 billion pending, approximately another $262 billion of Chinese exports to the USA.  Monday begins the first day of trading in September 2018 that could see the China tariffs implemented.  China appears unwilling to negotiate on USA intellectual properties RIGHTS and appears to believe it can outwait tariffs on its exports to the USA while China carries out its industrial strategy for the future.  It appears China failed to grasp (a) US companies might shift production out of China to other existing facilities, (b) USA companies that were thinking about starting, or expanding, China manufacturing, sales, etc. will be put off by tariffs, and (z) that other countries trading with China might take steps to insure they do not become a dumping ground for China.

President Trump wants to replace the current NAFTA pact. Canada returns to the negotiations next week, and we have  expectations of increased volatility as the Canada trade negotiations drag on.  USA markets will be looking for Canada to embrace the USA Mexico trade agreement.

Also affecting Micron is the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS, an ‘industry taxonomy’ developed in 1999 by MSCI and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) for use by the global financial community), reclassification of some S & P 500 companies out of the Tech Sector, after the markets close Friday (9/28/2018) to other sectors.  This means Tech Sector ETFs and funds have to ‘sell’ to rebalance, expect some ETFs to rebalance ahead of time.

 

Micron Investor Calendar:  http://investors.micron.com/events.cfm

 

Sep 6, 2018

9:30 AM ET

Citi 2018 Global Technology Conference

Speaker: Dave Zinsner, CFO

Location: New York, NY

Listen to webcast

May 21, 2018

1:30 PM ET

2018 Micron Analyst and Investor Event

View Webcast

View Presentation

11.6 MB

 

Outlook for NAND and DRAM:

I listened, more than once, to the nearly 4-hour 2018 Micron Analyst conference with question and answer period on May 21st.  Micron made it very clear that Micron is transitioning from a ‘chips as commodities’ manufacturer to a ‘packaged chips and products’ company.  Per my estimate, Micron is probably at 45% to 50% packaging of its trade NAND currently.  Micron’s slide 52 projected Flagship mobile devices at 1TB per device.  Micron’s slide 64 is the most promising as Micron estimates 80 percent of its trade NAND will be in packages while only 20 percent will be discrete ‘chips as chips’ component sales.  Micron packaged products incorporating DRAM and NAND offer Micron opportunities for higher average sales prices (ASPs) and margins.

Micron is already in FY2019 and projects to be selling, and shipping, 3D Xpoint (QuantX) products by the last quarter of FY2019.  3D Xpoint is estimated bring Micron to 60 percent packaging in Q4’2019.  Per my estimates, depending on the adoption of Micron’s 3D Xpoint devices, Micron will (a) attain 60 to 67 percent packaging of its trade NAND in 2020, and (b)thanks to 3D Xpoint, attain 77 to 80 percent packaging of its trade NAND by Q4’2021.

I also listened, more than once, to Micron’s CFO’s (Dave Zinsner  SVP & CFO   (40 min 34 sec)) comments and answers during the Micron portion of the Citi  2018 Global Technology Conference … these are from my notes: 

  •  Looking at improving every corner of Micron.  More of a product company w/focus on ‘high value’ solutions. Latest node 1x crossover in last half of 2018. High value solutions in SSDs, multichip packages.  Micron looking to make (TAKE) market share gains in NAND.  Growth in cloud.  IoT and Automotive will drive content demand. 
  •  
  •   NAND pricing did decline in the 3rd quarter.  ASPs and better gross margins on multi-chip DRAM/NAND packages.  As ASPs for NAND decline, Micron’s CFO Zinsner says Micron sees new pockets of demand popping up. 
  •  
  •  Only two companies have 3D Xpoint, Intel (INTC) and Micron (MU); but, only one company, Micron, has DRAM, 3D Xpoint, and NAND.    Micron CFO said new 3D Xpoint products at end of 2019 and additional 3D Xpoint products in 2020. 
  •  
  •  RE: (Speculation) Micron in a ‘future downturn’ … look at fiscal 2016 to 2018.  Micron closing the cost gap w/competitors, $6 billion improvement in earnings,  another $3 billion opportunity …

 

   Interesting that Micron is holding its Conference Call after regular hours trading ends the day before Quadruple Witching Expiry.

 ===================================================

  Micron’s Technical Analysis

 

  This is a Bull/Bear, PROs, and CONs, BuyHoldSellShort (BHSS) chart analysis with the same capital conserving cautionary and pull back suggestions, as well as the occasional ‘contrarian’ bullish (or bearish) suggestions I have learned to appreciate and use to manage my investments with the Reward/RISK, or RISK/Reward Ratio.
Where appropriate, I add information from my databases, spreadsheets, as well as my notes from conference calls and articles. As I own shares of Micron Tech, I want to know the good, the bad, and the ugly, the
buyholdsellshort because it’s my money. I write this analysis myself, it is MY homework, and I am not paid, or seeking to be paid for sharing this analysis. I hope that sharing my homework, comments, notes and opinions helps you with your investment homework.

 

  If you missed it, please see my last two blog posts for geo-political RISKS comparison numbers, trend, and additional information which will not be boringly repeated below, like Micron’s Expiry close to Expiry close performance.

 … and now to the MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O) charts

 (Note: I still have additional info to add) :

 

      ——————————————————–

mu 20180907d

Chart 1: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C Candle Volume thru Friday’s close

 Chart #1 Annotation Key: Right side, listed bottom to top, the above chart incorporates the Daily chart analysis numbers listed below:

 

  • ·         Lx = “If Long, exit all contracts at: $44.06
  • ·         ST rally back = ” … short term price rally back to the $50.20 area.
  • ·         p-profit = “if Short look to take partial profits on any retracement to $53.68”
  • ·         CCS = (if Short) suggested ” …capital conserving stops (CCS) in the region of $53.68 
  • ·         Sx = “If Short, exit all contracts at: $53.68

 

 Note the Raff Regression Channel, thru Friday’s (9/7/2018) Close, in the above chart is 111 trading days with a slightly negative slope of -0.020808.  The 9/7/2018 values of the channel are: 63.426, 52.478, and 41.53. 

 

 mu 20180907d1

 

Chart 2: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).  Note: when spreads widen between support and resistance, Micron’s pps tends to decline.  When spreads narrow, the suggestion is Micron’s pps rallies.  The CLAW formation w/Supports (s1,s2) pointing up to the Pivot Point and Resistances (r1,r2) pointing down to the Pivot Point suggest a ‘move’ is at hand, and more homework is required to determine if that move is up, or down.   

  Analysis of DAILY chart activity through Friday’s (9/7/2018)  close at $44.86

    The current trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered.  The current market price activity  is Strongly Bearish and suggests favorable trade opportunities on the short side.   If already holding short positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $53.68. Traders with remaining short positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops (CCS) in the region of $53.68.  Be prepared for a potential short-term price rally back to the 50.20  area.

   Suggested placement of capital conserving stops (CCS):

  • If Long, exit all contracts at:     $44.06
  • If Short, exit all contracts at:     $53.68

 

Additional Daily chart info:

(1.a) On the EOD daily chart basis, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) is bearish since it is trading below its signal line. Micron’s MACD crossed below its signal line 1 trading day ago.  Since the MACD crossed below its moving average, MICRON TECH ORD’s price has increased +0.47%, and has ranged from a low of $44.06 high to a high of $48.45.  The MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.  There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 trading days.

MACD Value:  -1.162        Signal Line:  -0.767

 

(1.b) Friday’s (9/7/2018)  Relative Strength Index (RSI) for MU was 29.776 down from Friday’s (8/31/2018) 53.9409.   However, the RSI is 29.78 and is oversold (below 30).  This is where it usually bottoms.  The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security.  The RSI calculations are based on the Close over a 14-trading day period. 

Note: other Momentum indicators generated ‘sell’ signals last week:  The Stoch on (8/31/2018), the CCI on (9/4/2018), and as noted above, the MACD on (9/6/2018).

However, interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator means looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20).  The Stochastic Oscillator is 7.9487.  This is an oversold reading.  However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20.  The current value of the CCI is -180.  This is an oversold reading.  However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100.   

 

mu 20180907obv

(1.c) Micron’s On Balance Volume (OBV) is a positive 15355838.0, down from last week’s,  but while declining, Micron’s OBV is still in the uptrend channel.

1.d  Daily Chart  Trend Info

  •  Overall, the bias in prices is:  Downwards.
  •  Short term: Prices are moving
  •  Intermediate term:  Prices are trending.
  • Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

 

1.e  Daily Chart Price Projections

  •   The upper projected Target is: $48.60.
  •   The lower projected Target is: $40.83.
  •   The projected closing price is: $44.71. 
  • Note: the above DAILY chart price projection ranges are for reference only and can be easily exceeded by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.

 

mu 20180907smad

(1.f) DAILY chart Moving Averages

  • The 3 period Simple Moving Average (sma3) at 46.35 is in a downtrend.
  • The 9 period Simple Moving Average (sma9) at 50.28 is in a downtrend.
  • The 20 period Simple Moving Average (sma20) at 49.81 is in a downtrend.
  • The 50 period Simple Moving Average (sma50) at 52.32 is in a downtrend.
  • The 100 period Simple Moving Average (sma100) at 53.61 is in a downtrend.
  • The 200 period Simple Moving Average (sma200) at 50.37 is in an uptrend.
  • The 400 period Simple Moving Average (sma400) at 41.01 is in an uptrend.

 

———————–

 

 

  Pivot Point, Support, and Resistance Info

If Micron’s pps is above the Pivot Point, the market is Bullish, and the Pivot point is also Support.  If Micron’s pps is below the Pivot Point, the market is Bearish, and the Pivot Point is Resistance.

  • See Friday’s Recap and Monday’s (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers in the above remarks.

2) Monday, Micron Tech (MU) closed at $44.90 up 4 cents or +0.09 percent. Year to date, Micron is up 9.19 percent.  Monday Recap:  Micron’s Close was -$0.423 below its Pivot Point for Friday (negative). Micron’s Intraday Low was +$0.203 above its Support (s1) (positive) and was +$0.877 above its Support (s2) (positive). Micron was -$0.617 below Resistance (r1) (negative) and was -$1.753 below Resistance (r2) (negative).  The Mr. Hyde, Dr. Jeckle Daily chart analysis switched its ‘short’ opinion to a ‘long’ opinion on Thursday (8/30/2018), then back to short Tuesday 9/4/2018.  The ongoing decline in Micron’s pps appears to be driven by (a) analysts revising Micron’s Target Price downward, and (b) selling due to the S&P 500 GICS reclassification of Tech sector stocks to other sectors, industries, and sub-industries.   

Micron’s (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers for Tuesday’s trading: Micron’s Pivot Point is $44.89. Micron’s Support (s1) is $44.40. Micron’s Support (s2) is $43.90. Micron’s Resistance (r1) is $45.39 and Resistance (r2) is $45.88Micron’s close at $44.86 is -$0.03 below its Pivot Point for Tuesday (negative). 

3) Tuesday, Micron Tech (MU) closed at $43.60 down -$1.30 or -2.9 percent. Year to date, Micron is still up 6.03 percent, but down -$21.06 or down -32.57 percent from its 52-week high.   Tuesday Recap:  Micron’s Close was -$1.29 below its Pivot Point for Tuesday (negative). Micron’s Intraday Low was -$2.05 below its Support (s1) (negative) and was -$1.55 below its Support (s2) (negative). Micron was -$1.64 below Resistance (r1) (negative) and was -$2.13 below Resistance (r2) (negative).  The Mr. Hyde, Dr. Jeckle Daily chart analysis switched its ‘short’ opinion to a ‘long’ opinion on Thursday (8/30/2018), then back to short Tuesday 9/4/2018.

Micron’s (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers for Wednesday’s trading: Micron’s Pivot Point is $43.233. Micron’s Support (s1) is $42.717. Micron’s Support (s2) is $41.833. Micron’s Resistance (r1) is $44.117 and Resistance (r2) is $44.633Micron’s close at $43.60 is  +$0.367 above its Pivot Point for Wednesday (positive).

4) Wednesday, Micron Tech (MU) closed at $41.74 down -$1.86 or -4.27 percent. Year to date, Micron is still up 1.51 percent, but down -$22.92 or down -35.447 percent from its 52-week high. Wednesday (9/12/2018) Recap: Micron’s Close was -$1.493 below its Pivot Point for Wednesday (negative). Micron’s Intraday Low was -$2.037 below its Support (s1) (negative) and was -$1.153 below its Support (s2) (negative). Micron was -$1.937 below Resistance (r1) (negative) and was -$2.453 below Resistance (r2) (negative).
Micron’s (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers for Thursday’s trading: Micron’s Pivot Point is $41.533. Micron’s Support (s1) is $40.887. Micron’s Support (s2) is $40.033. Micron’s Resistance (r1) is $42.387 and Resistance (r2) is $43.033. Micron’s close at $41.74 is +$0.207 above its Pivot Point for Thursday (positive).

4) Thursday, Micron Tech (MU) closed at $43.62 up +$1.88 or +4.5 percent. Year to date, Micron is still up 6.08 percent, but down -$21.04 or down -32.539 percent from its 52-week high.  Thursday (9/13/2018) Recap:  Micron’s Close was +$2.087 above its Pivot Point for Wednesday (positive). Micron’s Intraday Low was +$1.413 above its Support (s1) (positive) and was +$2.267 above its Support (s2) (positive). Micron was +$2.108 above Resistance (r1) (positive) and was +$1.461 above Resistance (r2) (positive).

Micron’s (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers for Friday’s trading: Micron’s Pivot Point is $43.472. Micron’s Support (s1) is $42.448. Micron’s Support (s2) is $41.277. Micron’s Resistance (r1) is $44.643 and Resistance (r2) is $45.666Micron’s close at $43.62 is  +$0.148 above its Pivot Point for Friday (positive).

 

 

==== ===== ===== =====

—  Monday, 9/10/2018 thru Friday 9/14/2018  ——

 

  Hope the above MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O) calculations for Monday, 9/10/2018, day, week, and month (d-w-m) of September 2018,  helps your investing and trading planning today …

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