MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) (d-w-m) for Monday (20181008)

My apologies for not publishing my Micron analyses sooner.  Fundamentals first and foremost.  Statistics consists of analyzing sets and sub-sets.  Doing one’s OWN homework requires analyzing the markets (Example: set = S&P 500 or Russell 3000), sectors (sub-set), industries (sub-set), sub-industries (sub-set) … and then the company and its customers and competitors (sub-sets)… to get a historical picture that ‘suggests’ the current and future investment prospects.  When you do your own homework, as I do, the USA and global GICS MSCI reclassification means preserving my old databases and setting up new databases and spreadsheets. I am hoping that by preserving and updating my old databases from time to time, they will provide me guidance needed to compare the impact of the GICS MSCI changes over time … and then I must do back testing of the ‘new’ sub-sets for things like earnings.   As I am only one person this is taking a substantial amount of time in flow charting, organizing, preserving, creating, and then doing my homework, double checking for errors, etc. …. leaving little to no time to ‘share’ what I am learning.  There is still much to do.   Thank you for your concerns and patience … much appreciated.  

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  Updated 10/11/2018: See Daily Pivot Point, Support, and Resistance Section (PPt-Sup-Res) below.  The (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers will be updated every day in this blog section as we head into  Friday 10/12/2018.  

Notes:   Homework in progress and more to add.  

NEWS:

  • Moody’s Upgrades Micron Technology’s Senior Unsecured Ratings To Baa3, Outlook Stable

 

  Friday Recap for Micron:  Micron Tech (MU) closed at $43.58 down -$0.58 cents or -1.31 percent. Year to date, Micron is up 5.98 percent.    Micron’s Close was -$0.56 below its Pivot Point for Friday (negative).  Micron’s Intraday Low was -$0.72 below its Support (s1) (negative) and was -$0.09 below its Support (s2) (negative).  Micron was -$0.14 below Resistance (r1) (negative) and was -$0.75 below Resistance (r2) (negative).  

  Micron’s (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers for Monday’s trading: Micron’s Pivot Point is $43.673.  Micron’s Support (s1) is $42.717. Micron’s Support (s2) is $41.853. Micron’s Resistance (r1) is $44.537 and Resistance (r2) is $45.493Micron’s close at $43.58 is +$0.093 above its Pivot Point for Monday (positive)

Outlook for this week, month, Micron’s Q1 and FY’2019:

  Point 1. For anyone paying attention Micron’s competition does NOT have Micron’s QuantX, or what Micron has learned from Elpida’s R&D, Automata, the Hybrid Memory, Cube, GDDR5x, GDDR6 … that has led to Micron boosting speed and bandwidth of its products.  

  Point 2. During the Q4’2018 financial call Micron’s CEO disclosed that Micron had attained 2/3s packaging (of its trade NAND) on Micron’s stated goal to achieve 80 percent packaging by 2021. Micron’s packaging contracts mitigate every ‘chips sold as chips’ commodities argument, not only on chips as chips pricing but revenues and margins too. The evidence against sell side analysts’ bearish forecasting is clear when Micron reports quarter after quarter earnings beats BY MORE THAN A PENNY that other companies get rewarded for.

 Point 3. Sell side analysts counting chip ‘oversupply’ as measured by wafer starts, or even wafer production is fundamentally flawed. Today’s 3D NAND, and Micron’s “Quad’ as in QLC see Micron building skyscrapers … adding more layers takes more time to process additional layers. Micron is taking 32-layer chips and stacking them. 32 layers, 64 layers, 96 layers … more process steps to stack and LINK the chips, … all takes MORE time.  Analysts foolishly counting Micron’s 32-layer wafers as finished ‘chips as chips’ and therefore ‘chips as commodities’ oversupply should be both embarrassed and humiliated every time Micron makes its quarterly report.

 Point 4.  Please LISTEN to Micron’s Q4’2018 financial call … Micron is telling us it will be bringing out ‘new’ consumer packaged products.  Micron’s new packaged products, depending on consumer adoption, will soak up more of Micron’s chips leaving fewer chips to be sold as chips.  

 Point 5. Micron will be closing its sponsorship of Elpida (Rexchip) out of bankruptcy in FY2019 and bankruptcy restrictions on Elpida cash, property, plant and equipment will be removed.

 Point 6. Micron has stated it will be shipping its 3D Xpoint (QuantX) packaged products in Q4’2019 … since Micron is planning to use QuantX as a cache, to keep the CPU busy, expectations are that it will be QuantX dragging DRAM and NAND out the door, not as sell side analysts’ chips as chips commodities but as packaged products … with revenues, margins, and earnings growth tied to adoption of Micron’s technology. Note: Micron’s greatest growth potential (billions of dollars of growth) is in data centers … servers and SSDs.

  By the numbers, if there is going to be a material difference in Q1’2019 guidance (Micron guided diluted non-GAAP $2.95 +/- $0.07 per share) then a pre-announcement will be warranted. Since the current forward guidance is based on q4’2018 fully diluted shares (Micron guided diluted non-GAAP shares of 1220 million shares) … the buyback of a yet unidentified number of shares each quarter should change the guided numbers upward**.

  ** As an example, if  Micron invests $1.5 billion into a buyback in Q1’2019, at an average price of $44.00 per share, Micron could buy back approximately 34,091,000 shares.  Reducing 1.220 billion shares by 34,091,000 shares ‘suggests’ the guided EPS needs to be revised upward on the lower 1,185,909,000 share number.  So, … the ‘expected’ non-GAAP EPS range improves to $3.035 +/- $0.07.  But wait:  An increase in packaging above the 2/3s Micron management stated as achieved for Q4’2018 should  also change the numbers upward.  IMHO, there are those analysts, even now, ‘guesstimating’ for a range of shares that could be bought back … and as they revise earnings estimates upward, they will ‘UNDER estimate’ if they FAIL to account for any achieved increase in Micron’s packaging percentage.  Since Micron is expected to buy back shares throughout 2019, ** and ** based on the ‘packaged products’ Micron says it intends to bring to market in FY2019 … the packaging percentage MUST increase. This suggests Micron may have to preannounce earnings revisions throughout the buyback period. 

   Finally, sell side analysts lump DRAM and NAND together … even when Micron’s products (like GDDR6) are clearly superior … Why is that?

Two of Micron’s web addresses worth checking out and adding to your favorites.

 

 

  Micron’s Technical Analysis

  This is a Bull/Bear, PROs, and CONs, BuyHoldSellShort (BHSS) chart analysis with the same capital conserving cautionary and pull back suggestions, as well as the occasional ‘contrarian’ bullish (or bearish) suggestions I have learned to appreciate and use to manage my investments with the Reward/RISK, or RISK/Reward Ratio.
  Where appropriate, I add information from my databases, spreadsheets, as well as my notes from conference calls and articles. As I own shares of Micron Tech, I want to know the good, the bad, and the ugly, the buyholdsellshort because it’s my money. I write this analysis myself, it is MY homework, and I am not paid, or seeking to be paid for sharing this analysis. I hope that sharing my homework, comments, notes and opinions helps you with your investment homework.

  If you missed it, please see my last two blog posts for geo-political RISKS comparison numbers, trend, and additional information which will not be boringly repeated below, like Micron’s Expiry close to Expiry close performance.

 

… and now to the MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O) charts

 (Note: I still have additional info to add) :

 

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mu 20181005d

Chart 1: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C Candle Volume thru Friday’s close

Chart #1 Annotation Key: Right side, listed targets bottom to top, the above chart incorporates the Daily chart analysis numbers listed below:

  • Analysis = Short/But (with contrarian suggestions)
  • Lx = “If Long, exit all contracts at: $42.81”
  • ST = ” … short term price advance back to the $45.69 area.
  • p-profit = “if Short look to take partial profits on any retracement to $46.69
  • CCS = (if Short) suggested ” … capital conserving stops (CCS) in the region of $47.22
  • Sx = “If Short, exit all contracts at: $47.22

 

Note the Raff Regression Channel, thru Friday’s (10/5/2018) Close, in the above chart is 91 trading days with a negative slope of -0.18573.  The 10/5/2018 values of the channel are: 50.09, 43.913, and 37.734.

mu 20181005d1

Chart 2: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2). Note: when spreads widen between support and resistance, Micron’s pps tends to decline. When spreads narrow, the suggestion is Micron’s pps rallies.
Analysis of MU Daily chart activity through Friday (10/5/2018) close @ $43.58

The current MU Daily chart trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered. If already holding short positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $46.69. Traders with remaining short positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops (CCS) in the region of $47.22. Be prepared for a potential short-term price advance back to the $45.69 area.
Suggested standing placement of capital conserving stops (CCS):
If Long, exit all contracts at $42.81
If Short, exit all contracts at $47.22

Additional Daily chart info:

(1.a) On the EOD daily chart basis, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) is bullish since it is trading above its signal line. Micron’s MACD crossed above its signal line 11 trading day ago. Since the MACD crossed above its moving average, MICRON TECH ORD’s price has decreased -5.38%, and has ranged from a low of $42.81 to a high of $47.22.

  • The MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
  • There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 trading days.
  •         MACD Value: -1.041              Signal Line: -1.210

(1.b) Friday’s (10/5/2018) Relative Strength Index (RSI) for MU was 38.1759 down from Friday’s (9/28/2018) 43.9655.  The RSI calculations are based on the Close over a 14-trading day period.
Notes:

 

mu 20181005obv

(1.c) Micron’s On Balance Volume (OBV) is a positive 15352234.0, up from last week’s, but while declining, Micron’s OBV is still in an uptrend channel.

1.d Daily Chart Trend Info

• Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
• Short term: Prices are moving
• Intermediate term: Prices are trending.
• Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
1. e Daily Chart Price Projections

The upper projected Target is: $46.95.
The lower projected Target is: $39.80.
The projected closing price is: $43.38.

• Note: the above DAILY chart price projection ranges are for reference only and can be easily exceeded by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.

 

 

(1.f) DAILY chart Moving Averages

 The 3 period Simple Moving Average (sma3) at 44.30 is in a downtrend.
 The 9 period Simple Moving Average (sma9) at 44.78 is in a downtrend.
 The 20 period Simple Moving Average (sma20) at 44.56 is in a downtrend.
 The 50 period Simple Moving Average (sma50) at 48.34 is in a downtrend.
 The 100 period Simple Moving Average (sma100) at 52.62 is in a downtrend.
 The 200 period Simple Moving Average (sma200) at 50.42 is in an uptrend.
 The 400 period Simple Moving Average (sma400) at 42.03 is in an uptrend.

PIVOT POINT, SUPPORT, AND RESISTANCE INFO

If Micron’s pps is above the Pivot Point, the market is Bullish, and the Pivot point is also Support. If Micron’s pps is below the Pivot Point, the market is Bearish, and the Pivot Point is Resistance.

  • See Friday’s Recap and Monday’s numbers in the above remarks.

2) Monday Recap for Micron:   Micron Tech (MU) closed at $43.07 down -$0.51 cents or -1.17 percent. Year to date, Micron is up 4.74 percent.    Micron’s Close was -$0.603 below its Pivot Point for Monday (negative).  Micron’s Intraday Low was -$0.107 below its Support (s1) (negative) but was +$0.757 above its Support (s2) (positive).  Micron was -$0.687 below Resistance (r1) (negative) and was -$1.643 below Resistance (r2) (negative).

Micron’s (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers for Tuesday’s trading: Micron’s Pivot Point is $43.177.  Micron’s Support (s1) is $42.503. Micron’s Support (s2) is $41.937. Micron’s Resistance (r1) is $43.743 and Resistance (r2) is $44.417Micron’s close at $43.07 is -$0.107 below its Pivot Point for Tuesday (negative).

 

3) Tuesday Recap for Micron:   Micron Tech (MU) closed at $42.27 down -$0.80 cents or -1.86 percent. Year to date, Micron is up 2.8 percent.    Micron’s Close was -$0.907 below its Pivot Point for Tuesday (negative).  Micron’s Intraday Low was -$0.523 below its Support (s1) (negative) but was +$0.043 above its Support (s2) (positive).  Micron was -$0.703 below Resistance (r1) (negative) and was -$1.377 below Resistance (r2) (negative).

Micron’s (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers for Wednesday’s trading: Micron’s Pivot Point is $42.43.  Micron’s Support (s1) is $41.82. Micron’s Support (s2) is $41.37. Micron’s Resistance (r1) is $42.88 and Resistance (r2) is $43.49Micron’s close at $42.27 is -$0.16 below its Pivot Point for Wednesday (negative).

 

4) Wednesday 10/10/2018 the US markets on no ‘new’ news is taking a beatdown.  Bonds are falling with stocks.  The US Fed raising rates, strengthening the US dollar, battering Emerging Markets (EM) is part of the problem.  The accommodative policies of global central banks is another part of the problem strengthening the US dollar.  The global trade tiff for tat tariffs is also a part of the problem … brought about by decades of previous US administrations’ atrocious trade negotiations that sent USA JOBS and US companies’ IP to foreign countries … including Communist China.

The US and global markets, despite China’s government imposition of forced partnerships (on both USA and global companies) with China ‘state owned’ companies requiring technologies transfers, industrial espionage through spies, hacking, and the planting of hardware chips,  despite China’s theft of US companies’ intellectual properties, despite China’s repeated threats against Taiwan, despite China’s island building and militarization in defiance of an adverse ruling by the Hague with threats to US military ships traversing international waters … are only concerned about the tariffs and how much money they can stuff into their pockets … with little to NO REGARD that China’s aggression may injure, maim, or kill US military in pursuit of China’s agenda … and that a SHOOTING war may follow shortly thereafter.  The US and global markets are demonstrating a severe lack of common sense, as well as a lack of honor, integrity, morals, ethics, and scruples … how SAD!

  •  DJIA         25,598.74  -831.83 (-3.15%)
  •  NASDAQ   7,422.05  -315.97 (-4.08%)
  •  S&P 500     2,785.68    -94.66 (-3.29%)

 4a)  (Intraday thru: 2:57:00 P.M.) Recap for Micron: Micron has been trading slightly down, up, and downthru: 2:57:00 P.M. Micron is at $42.06 down -$0.21 cents or -0.50 percent. Year to date, Micron is up 2.29 percent.    Micron’s (Intraday thru: 2:57:00 P.M.) was -$0.37 below its Pivot Point for Wednesday (negative).  Micron’s Intraday Low was -$0.500 below its Support (s1) (negative) and was -$0.050 below its Support (s2) (negative).  Micron was -$0.13 below Resistance (r1) (negative) and was -$0.74 below Resistance (r2) (negative).

4b)  Wednesday Recap for Micron:   Micron Tech (MU) closed at $41.61 down -$0.66 cents or -1.56 percent. Year to date, Micron, having earned $11.95 per diluted share on a non-GAAP basis over the trailing twelve months (ttm) …  is now only up 1.19 percent.  Micron’s Close was -$0.82 below its Pivot Point for Wednesday (negative).  Micron’s Intraday Low was -$0.500 below its Support (s1) (negative) and was -$0.050 below its Support (s2) (negative).  Micron was -$0.13 below Resistance (r1) (negative) and was -$0.74 below Resistance (r2) (negative). 

  Micron’s (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers for Thursday’s trading: Micron’s Pivot Point is $41.893.  Micron’s Support (s1) is $41.037. Micron’s Support (s2) is $40.463. Micron’s Resistance (r1) is $42.467 and Resistance (r2) is $43.323Micron’s close at $41.61 is -$0.283 below its Pivot Point for Thursday (negative). On a positive note, Micron held up better than the indices and many of the other US stocks.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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—  Monday, 10/8/2018 thru Friday 10/12/2018  ——

 

  Here is hoping the above MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O) calculations for Monday, 10/8/2018, day, week, and month (d-w-m) of October 2018,  helps your investing and trading planning today …

 

 

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