MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) (d-w-m) for Monday (20181126)

Updated w/additional info 11/29/2018 see Pivot Point, Support, & Resistance info below  

I do BuyHoldSellShort and the occasional ‘Out of Market’ analysis, top down: Market indices, Sectors, Industries, sub-industries … then funds and individual stocks including looking at competitors and potential customers.    My database and spreadsheet ‘homework first’ analyses also focus on Supports and Resistances and their TRENDs.  Database and spreadsheet analysis compliments technical analysis as it offers me PROs and CONs with contrarian Bullish or Bearish ‘suggestions’ providing me with advice as to where to focus my attention and efforts on additional ‘contrarian’ suggestions.

Why do I separate out Chart 1 ‘contrarian’ Bullish and/or Bearish ‘suggestions?  Because I enter these into my databases and spreadsheets for additional statistical and trend analysis.  This ‘homework’ provides way MORE information than drawing a line on a chart will ever provide.

Let’s use last Friday’s numbers as an example:

 Indices (dwm) 20181126

All major U.S. stock markets were closed on Thursday November 22, 2018 for the Thanksgiving holiday.  Friday November 23, major U.S. stock markets closed early at 1 PM ET.  Friday’s Extended Hours session was available from 1 – 4 PM ET.

Five trading days left in November 2018. 

  • DJIA close: 24,285.95 down -178.74 (-0.731%)  Pivot Point:  24321.163 (negative)
  • NasdaqComp close: 6938.98 down -33.27 (-0.477%)  Pivot Point:  6948.677  (negative)
  • S&P500 close: 2632.56 down -17.37 (-0.655%) Pivot Point:  2637.067 (negative)
  • Nasdaq100 close: 6527.35 down -48.32 (-0.73%)  Pivot Point:  6547.82  (negative)
  • Russell 1k close: 1456.23 down -8.79 (-0.6%)   Pivot Point:  1458.597  (negative)
  • Russell 2k close: 1488.68  up +0.40  (+0.03)  Pivot Point:  1488.047  (positive)
  • Russell 3k close: 1554.01 down -8.67 (-0.55%)     Pivot Point:  1556.337  (negative)
  • VIX close: 21.52 up +0.72  (+.463)    Pivot Point:  21.607   (positive)

 

While it looks like Monday’s projected numbers, pre-market hours and regular hours trading would/should be abysmally ugly … the contrarian Bullish ‘suggestions’ pointed to the potential that the US market indices are bottoming in progress.  Today, the pre-market trading was in the green.  The regular hours trading is, currently, also in the green.   We will look to the markets intraday trading and the close today, and throughout this week for confirmation of the ‘suggested’ USA markets’ index bottoms.

 

  WHY a bottom? 

First, it appears the Global Industry Classification Standard  (GICS) ‘reclassification’ imposed on the Tech Sector by Standard and Poor’s and MSCI has run its course.  I would point to evidence the Standard & Poor’s and MSCI Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) started the GLOBAL TECH snowball selling … and nary a ‘heads up’ GICS peep from the sell side analysts arguing ‘cycles’ … the selling begot MORE selling, (a) the funds had to sell to cover customer redemptions, and (b) add more selling because the funds have to come up with funds to cover IRS mandated 2018 capital gains distributions … and (c) more selling because concerned retail investors are bailing, sitting on cash, and maybe making small bites of what they now deem to be ‘value’ stocks.  The ‘selling’ could be putting in a bottom, because if it doesn’t the funds’ MANAGERS KNOW they will have to raise MORE cash to pay investor redemptions, and then MORE cash to payout 2018 capital gains ….   Thanks to GICS, we can all, happily, pay 2018 taxes….

Second, this week we have FED speakers that will ‘hopefully’ give insight into the FED’s considerations of global and USA trials and tribulations that the markets feel the FED appears to be ignoring, potentially leading the US Federal Reserve to (a) a rates overtightening, and (b) a USA recession.  Third, China has sent a trade offer to President Trump that addressed about 140 of the 150 or so issues the USA has brought to China’s attention as needing ‘fixing’ with the trade dispute.  This leaves a hand full of the issues China did not address open to be discussed and negotiated between Presidents Trump and Xi at their sidebar meet at the G20 (Nov 30 – Dec 1st 2018) summit.  The markets are ‘hoping’ for (a) a temporary cease fire on the ramp of tariffs already imposed and, (b) a temporary cease fire on imposition of additional USA on China tariffs and (c) that negotiations will lead to a resolution in the USA vs. China trade dispute.

Other geo-political RISKs abound like “Brexit’, OPEC crude production,  and Italy’s budget dispute with the EU, et cetera.  But, ‘contrarian suggestions’ still imply this could be a good week for investors and traders.

——————————————————————————– 

Friday Recap for Micron:  In holiday shortened regular hours trading Micron Tech (MU) closed at $36.40 up +$0.02 or +0.05 percent. Year to date, Micron is down -11.48 percent.    Micron’s Close was -$0.257 below its Pivot Point for Friday (negative).  Micron’s Intraday Low was -$0.173 below its Support (s1) (negative) and was +$0.113 above its Support (s2) (positive).  Micron’s intraday High was +$0.557 above Resistance (r1) (positive) and was only -$0.007 below Resistance (r2) (neutral).

Micron’s (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers for Monday’s trading: Micron’s Pivot Point is $36.607.  Micron’s Support (s1) is $35.713. Micron’s Support (s2) is $35.027. Micron’s Resistance (r1) is $37.293 and Resistance (r2) is $38.187Micron’s close at $36.40 is -$0.207 below its Pivot Point for Monday (negative). 

   ——————————————————————————– 

About Micron

 I am hard pressed to observe any analysts’ opinions that have made any attributions to Micron achieving 2/3s packaging in Q4’2018. That info, and more, was in the conference call … Packaging plus Micron’s talking points on taking market share from its competition, NOT by Micron’s design, but by customer demand. In addition, Micron stated it was bringing new products to market, first to consumers, then to enterprise customers. PROs and CONs need equal representation.
I was looking at many new computers like the Hewlett Packard Pavilion ‘Gaming’ laptop. 16GB DRAM and while it was emblazoned with the ‘Intel inside’ and Optane logos, NVIDIA GeForce graphics, et cetera … but, you had to read the details to learn it sported a Micron SSD.

IMHO, scenario analysis suggests the wide spread reporting of shrinking sales, opens ALL the sell side ‘models’ that are suggesting declines … to erroneous conclusions by failing to account for (1) increasing DRAM and NAND content in the devices that will be manufactured, displayed, advertised, and purchased (like Samsung’s 1 TB ready Galaxy 9). Micron has lower production costs for its 3D ‘floating gate’ TLC NAND and has been working to get to node crossovers faster … add in that Micron has been focused on paying down debt, becoming balance sheet CASH positive, attaining node transition crossovers sooner than expected, improving satisfactory yield, AND increasing the percentage of chips sold as packages. China, investors, and even traders, should appreciate Micron’s efforts on satisfactory yield, PACKAGING, and beating node transitions goals … because that leads to lower COSTS, which offsets reduction in chips ASPs, … and since Micron is on a path to selling LESS and LESS of its chips production as ‘chips’ … the ‘models’ NEED to be adjusted.

  

 

  Micron’s Technical Analysis

  This is a Bull/Bear, PROs, and CONs, BuyHoldSellShort (BHSS) chart analysis with the same capital conserving cautionary and pull back suggestions, as well as the occasional ‘contrarian’ bullish (or bearish) suggestions I have learned to appreciate and use to manage my investments with the Reward/RISK, or RISK/Reward Ratio.
Where appropriate, I add information from my databases, spreadsheets, as well as my notes from conference calls and articles. As I own shares of Micron Tech, I want to know the good, the bad, and the ugly, the
buyholdsellshort because it’s my money. I write this analysis myself, it is MY homework, and I am not paid, or seeking to be paid for sharing this analysis. I hope that sharing my homework, comments, notes and opinions helps you with your investment homework.

 

  If you missed it, please see Geo-Political RISKS for comparison numbers, trend, and additional information which will not be boringly repeated below, like Micron’s Expiry close to Expiry close performance.

 

… and now to the MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O) charts

 (Note: I still have additional info to add) :

 

      ——————————————————–

mu 20181123d

Chart 1: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C Candle Volume thru Friday’s close

Chart #1 Annotation Key: Right side, listed targets bottom to top, the above chart incorporates the Daily chart analysis numbers listed below:

 

  • Daily chart Analysis = Short/But (with contrarian ‘Bullish’ suggestions)
  • Lx = “If Long, exit all contracts at: $34.05
  • ST = ” … short term price advance back to the $38.47 area.”
  • p-profit = “if Short look to take partial profits on any retracement to $40.18
  • CCS = (if Short) suggested ” … capital conserving stops (CCS) in the region of $41.43
  • Sx = “If Short, exit all contracts at: $41.43

 

mu 20181126d1

Chart 2: Micron Tech, Daily, EOD, O-H-L-C w/Resistances (r2, r1), Pivot Point (PP), and Supports (s1, s2).  Note: when spreads widen between support and resistance, Micron’s pps tends to decline.  When spreads narrow, the suggestion is Micron’s pps rallies.  The CLAW formation w/Supports (s1,s2) pointing up to the Pivot Point and Resistances (r1,r2) pointing down to the Pivot Point suggest a ‘move’ is at hand, and more homework is required to determine if that move is up, or down.   

 

 

MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O)

 

Analysis of MU Daily chart activity through Friday’s (11/23/2018) close at $36.40

The current MU Daily chart activity trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered.  The current market price activity  is Strongly Bearish and suggests favorable trade opportunities on the short side.   If already holding short positions, look to take partial profits on any retracement to $40.18. Traders with remaining short positions, after profit taking, should consider placing capital conserving stops (CCS) in the region of $41.43.  Be prepared for a potential short-term price rally back to the $38.47  area.

Suggested placement of capital conserving stops (CCS):

  • ·         If Long, exit all contracts at:     $34.05
  • ·         If Short, exit all contracts at:     $41.43

 

Additional Daily chart info:

(1.a) On the EOD daily chart basis, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MICRON Technology Inc. (MU.O) is bearish since it is trading below its signal line. Micron’s MACD crossed below its signal line 1 trading day ago.  MACD Sell Signal triggered on 11/20/2018Since the MACD crossed below its moving average, MICRON TECH ORD’s price increased 0.05%, and has ranged from a low of $35.92 to a high of $37.50.  The MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.  There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 trading days.

        MACD Value:  -1.084        Signal Line:  -1.012

 

(1.b) Friday’s (11/16/2018)  Relative Strength Index (RSI) for MU was 39.1811 down from Friday’s (11/16/2018) 48.2506.    The RSI calculations are based on the Close over a 14-trading day period.

Notes:

mu 20181123obv

(1.c) Micron’s On Balance Volume (OBV) is a positive 11843992.0, down from last Friday’s,  but while declining, Micron’s OBV is still in the long term uptrend channel.

 

1.d  Daily Chart  Trend Info

  • Overall, the bias in prices is:  Downwards.
  • Short term: Prices are moving.
  • Intermediate term:  Prices are trending.
  • CCI Buy Signal triggered on 11/23/2018
  • Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

 

 

  1. e  Daily Chart Price Projections
  • The upper projected Target is: $39.50.
  • The lower projected Target is: $33.01.
  •  The projected closing price is: $36.26. 
  • Note: the above DAILY chart price projection ranges are for reference only and can be easily exceeded by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.

 

 

mu 20181123sma

(1.f) DAILY chart Moving Averages

  • The 3 period Simple Moving Average (sma3) at 36.30 is in a downtrend.
  • The 9 period Simple Moving Average (sma9) at 37.60 is in a downtrend.
  • The 20 period Simple Moving Average (sma20) at 38.14 is in a downtrend.
  • The 50 period Simple Moving Average (sma50) at 41.04 is in a downtrend.
  • The 100 period Simple Moving Average (sma100) at 46.30 is in a downtrend.
  • The 200 period Simple Moving Average (sma200) at 49.75 is in a downtrend.
  • The 400 period Simple Moving Average (sma400) at 43.06 is in an uptrend.

 

 

 

  Pivot Point, Support, and Resistance Info

If Micron’s pps is above the Pivot Point, the market is Bullish, and the Pivot point is also Support.  If Micron’s pps is below the Pivot Point, the market is Bearish, and the Pivot Point is Resistance.

 

  • See Friday’s Recap and Monday’s numbers in the above remarks.

2) Monday Recap for Micron:

3) Tuesday Recap for Micron:

4) Wednesday update:

Hello all. It may look like a bad day, but we are actually having a good day with Micron and the US indices … Note: in Micron’s analyst conference Micron advised, without elaboration that Revenues would be slightly lower, BUT, that earnings would be ABOVE the midpoint of Micron’s non-GAAP guided range (homework in progress)

Wednesday Recap for Micron: (MU) closed at $38.71 up +$1.71 or +4.62 percent. Year to date, Micron is down -5.86 percent. Micron’s Close was +$1.887 above its Pivot Point for Wednesday (positive). Micron’s Intraday Low was -$0.202 below its Support (s1) (negative) but was +$0.602 above its Support (s2) (positive). Micron’s intraday High was +$1.373 above Resistance (r1) (positive) and was +$0.747 above Resistance (r2) (positive)
Micron’s (PPt-Sup-Res) numbers for Thursday’s trading:  Micron’s Pivot Point is $37.902.  Micron’s Support (s1) is $36.803. Micron’s Support (s2) is $34.897. Micron’s Resistance (r1) is $39.808 and Resistance (r2) is $40.907. Micron’s close at $38.71 is +$0.808 above its Pivot Point for Thursday (positive)

As to the indices, when I left yesterday, I was running the markets intraday numbers, which has me smiling today amidst the groans (the homework difference):

Yesterday’s Intraday calculations 11/28/2018 at approximately 2:30 PM ET
• Nasdaq100 ~2:30PM: 6869.22 up +168.18 (+2.51%) Pivot Point: 6820.98 (positive)
• Russell 1k ~2:30PM: 1506.66 up +24.60 (+1.66%) Pivot Point: 1498.72 (positive)
• Russell 2k ~2:30PM: 1523.74 up +30.88 (+2.07%) Pivot Point: 1511.69 (positive)
• Russell 3k ~2:30PM: 1609.86 up +29.98 (+1.90%) Pivot Point: 1600.40 (positive)
• VIX ~2:30PM: 18.78 down -0.24 (-1.26%) Pivot Point: 18.867 (negative)

Two trading days left in November 2018.

DJIA close: 25366.43 up +617.700 (+2.496%) Pivot Point: 25189.40 (positive)
NasdaqComp close: 7291.59 up +208.89 (+2.949%) Pivot Point: 7225.093 (positive)
S&P500 close: 2743.79 up +61.62 (+2.297%) Pivot Point: 2761.539 (positive)
Nasdaq100 close: 6913.33 up +212.29 (+3.17%) Pivot Point: 6847.137 (positive)
Russell 1k close: 1516.27 up +34.21 (+2.31%) Pivot Point: 1505.00 (positive)
Russell 2k close: 1530.38 up +37.52 (+2.51%) Pivot Point: 1515.810 (positive)
Russell 3k close: 1616.59 up +36.71 (+2.32%) Pivot Point: 1604.560 (positive)
VIX close: 18.49 down -0.53 (-2.79%) Pivot Point: 18.683 (negative)

Intraday Thursday:  Nasdaq100 ~11:55AM:  6,887.25 -26.08 (-0.38%) So looking at the Nasdaq 100 (b’cuz Micron is a component) vs BOTH its’ Pivot Points (intraday and close)and we are GOLDEN (at this time)
Hope everyone is having a great day. :-}

 

 

—  Monday, 11/26/2018 thru Friday 11/30/2018  ——

 

  Here is hoping the above MICRON TECH ORD (MU.O) calculations for Monday, 11/26/2018, day, week, and month (d-w-m) of November 2018,  helps your investing and trading planning today …

 

 

 

 

 

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