Index Support and Resistance for Wednesday, 8/10/2016

 

  U.S. stocks and indices managed small gains Tuesday.  Sector watch:  Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods up +0.59%, Healthcare up +0.27%, Technology up +0.34%, with consumer-focused sector companies gaining.  The Nasdaq Composite Index gained +12.34 points, or +0.2 percent, to its third new 52 week high in three trading days.  Strong earnings reports helped chemicals companies, while retailers lagged the market.

  An early rally in U.S. crude oil prices fizzled, sending crude oil and Nat gas companies lower.  Traders are worried about the US EIA crude report Wednesday … and well they should be with combined WTI/Brent 300,000 contracts short as of July 2016 … Of course it’s not the combined WTI/Brent 400,000 futures contracts “they” were short in Jan 2016.  You can thank (1) the Contango in crude oil futures prices and (2) global Central Bank interest rates near ZERO, and even NEGATIVE, for the crude getting stuffed into storage.  With upcoming refinery maintenance shutdown cycles about to begin, the drawdowns in crude oil will taper off, and the drawdowns in refined petroleum products will commence.   ** AND ** OPEC is talking about side discussions on crude production ceilings, “production ranges”, or maybe even limits … as some OPEC members’ economies are in serious distress and in NEED of higher crude prices.   Despite the record crude oil in storage, and in ships at sea, crude oil stored as collateral against futures sold short is COLLATERAL … NOT SUPPLY.    As long as we’re in a Contango, in a zero interest rate economy, we should expect there will be traders, investors, and herd wannabe’s looking to buy and stuff crude into storage while stuffing the cash from the futures into their pockets … until “they” can’t play the Contango game anymore.   

   ———————————————-

 On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, .DJI) gained +3.76 points, or +0.02 percent, to 18,533.05.  For this week, the DJIA is down -10.48 points, or -0.1 percent.  Year to date, the DJIA is up +1,108.02 points, or +6.36 percent.

 On Tuesday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX, .INX) gained +0.85 points, or +0.04 percent, to 2,181.74.  For this week, the S&P 500 is down -1.13 points, or -0.1 percent.  Year to date, the S&P 500 is up +137.80 points, or +6.74 percent.  The S&P 500 posted new Year-to-date (YTD) highs for the High and Low.  The new S&P 500 YTD high was also a new 52 week high, its third in three trading days, at 2187.66.

 On Tuesday, the Nasdaq Comp (NAS, .IXIC) gained +12.34 points, or +0.2 percent, to 5,225.48.  For this week, the Nasdaq is up +4.36 points, or +0.1 percent.  Year to date, the Nasdaq is up +218.07 points, or +4.35 percent.  The Nasdaq posted new Year-to-date (YTD) highs for the High, Low, and Close.  The new Nasdaq YTD high was also a new 52 week high, its third in three trading days, at 5238.54.

  Check out the rest of the new Highs/Lows in Table V. below …

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Below you will find the Index Support and Resistance for Wednesday, 8/10/2016 as calculated from the changes in Index points through Tuesday, 8/9/2016’s close.

          —————-

 I.   Index performance Tuesday, 8/9/2016

• DJ Indu Avg  18,533.05   +3.76  (0.02%)    (chart: blue)
• Nasdaq        5,225.48  +12.34  (0.24%)    (chart: gold)
• S&P 500       2,181.74   +0.85  (0.04%)    (chart: red )
•   ——————————————-
• DJ Trans Avg  7,836.78  -32.53 (-0.41%)
• Rus 1k (RUI)  1,208.59  +0.63 (+0.05%)
• Rus 2k (RUT)  1,231.74  +1.32 (+0.11%)
• Rus 3k (RUA)  1,289.30  +0.73 (+0.06%)
• CBOE (TNX)       15.45  -0.38 (-2.40%)
• Volatility(VIX)  11.66  +0.16 (+1.39%)

 I. a. Select stocks of interest, from Tuesday, 8/9/2016

• AAPL … 108.81  +0.44 (+0.41%)   After Hours: 108.67 -0.14 (-0.13%)
• C ……  45.90  -0.06 (-0.13%)   After Hours:  45.80 -0.10 (-0.22%)
• CHK ….   4.81  -0.20 (-3.99%)   After Hours:   4.85 +0.04 (+0.83%)
• FH …..   2.06  -0.04 (-1.90%)
• GE …..  31.30  +0.03 (+0.10%)   After Hours:  31.29 -0.01 (-0.03%)
• JCP ….   9.34  -0.16 (-1.68%)   After Hours:   9.34 +0.00 (+0.00%)
• MPC ….  41.03  -0.90 (-2.15%)   After Hours:  41.03 +0.00 (+0.00%)
• MU …..  14.48  +0.06 (+0.42%)   After Hours:  14.49 +0.01 (+0.07%)
• VZ …..  53.66  +0.07 (+0.13%)   After Hours:  53.66 +0.00 (+0.00%)
•      select ETFs …
• DIA …  185.35  +0.06 (+0.03%)   After Hours: 185.37 +0.02 (+0.01%)
• QQQ …  116.92  +0.27 (+0.23%)   After Hours: 116.90 -0.02 (-0.02%)
• SPY …  218.22  +0.17 (+0.08%)   After Hours: 218.01 -0.21 (-0.10%)
• GLD …  127.96  +0.52 (+0.41%)   After Hours: 128.00 +0.04 (+0.03%)
• SLV ….  18.87  +0.13 (+0.69%)   After Hours:  18.87 +0.00 (+0.00%)
• IWD …  106.11  -0.02 (-0.02%)
• IWF …  105.15  +0.18 (+0.17%)
• IWM …  122.39  +0.13 (+0.11%)   After Hours: 122.28 -0.11 (-0.09%)
• IWV …  128.78  +0.03 (0.02%)

 I. b. Sector summary from Tuesday, 8/9/2016

Sector Change +/-% (best (or least worst) to worst)

• Non-Cyclical Cons. Goods ……… +0.59%
• Telecommunications Srvcs ……… +0.50%
• Financials ………………….. +0.35%
• Technology ………………….. +0.34%
• Healthcare ………………….. +0.27%
• Industrials …………………. +0.16%
• Energy ………………….. -0.08%
• Utilities ……………….. -0.08%
• Basic Materials ………….. -0.16%
• Cyclical Cons. Goods ……… -0.21%
• Real Estate .. ( 8/31/2016 ) …………. * tbd * 
•  The Eleventh Sector for 2016: Real Estate
            ————————————
                                          ——

 II. Bonds, and/or Currencies, and/or Commodities from Tuesday, 8/9/2016

  II. a.  USA  Bonds

• 3 Month  0.28%  -0.01 (-3.45%)
• 6 Month  0.41%  -0.02 (-4.65%)
•  2 Year  0.71%  -0.02 (-2.74%)
•  5 Year  1.11%  -0.03 (-2.63%)
• 10 Year  1.55%  -0.03 (-1.90%)
• 30 Year  2.26%  -0.03 (-1.31%)

  II. b.  Currencies

• AUD/USD .. 0.7699  +0.0036 (+0.48%)
• EUR/USD .. 1.1151  +0.0033 (+0.29%)
• GBP/USD .. 1.3062  +0.0049 (+0.38%)
• USD/CAD .. 1.3066  -0.0052 (-0.40%)
• USD/CNY .. 6.6471  -0.0068 (-0.10%)
• USD/HKD .. 7.7559  -0.0008 (-0.01%)
• USD/JPY  101.2590  -0.6685 (-0.66%)

II. c.    US Energy Information Administration   (US EIA)

• Petroleum & Other Liquids

• Weekly Supply Estimates
• This Week in Petroleum
• Crude oil storage and capacity have increased in Cushing, Oklahoma and U.S. Gulf Coast

For both Bulls and Bears:

current XLE quote (Reuters) and more

Related previous XLE analysis:

• SELECT SECTOR SPDR ENERGY FUND (XLE) (d-w-m) (p2)
• SELECT SECTOR SPDR ENERGY FUND (XLE) d/w/m
• –      –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

  II. e.    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

 Remaining meetings:   ( FOMC  Calendar & info )

• July 26-27                        ( as expected, no rate increase  )
• September 20-21*        ( work in progress )

• November 1-2
• December 13-14*

* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Fed Chairperson  Ms. J. Yellen.

• –   –           –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –
• –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

 III.  Index Support and Resistance for Wednesday, 8/10/2016

 Below you will find the 52 week performance, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) performance to the selected indexes.  See Section V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/2015) to track changes in this info.  See the 200 day simple moving average (sma200) calculations added to those of the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX).  For tracking the day’s action, here are the Pivot Points, Support points, Resistance points,  and the 50 day simple moving averages (sma50),  for the DJIA, the NasdaqComp, the S&P 500, the Russell’s 1000, 2000, 3000, the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX), as well as the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P500.
:: If the related index, or stock, is above the pivot point, the pivot point is both support, and an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bullish.
:: If the related Index, or stock, is below the pivot point, then the pivot point represents resistance, as well as an indication that Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets are Bearish.
:: Please Note:   ALL projections are for reference only as they can be easily exceeded, up or down, by Mr. & Ms. Fickle Markets.

     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

( 1) For the DJIA (INDEX DJX: .DJI) (ETF: DIA)
Closed 8/9 up  @  18,533.05   +3.76  (0.02%)
:: Closed   (below 8/9 PP)  (below 8/10 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)   18542.04
•   Support (s1)  18498.76       Support (s2)   18464.47
•   Resistance (r1)   18576.33   Resistance (r2)   18619.61
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):    18084.98       (uptrend)
•   52 week performance  +5.21%  YTD performance  +6.36%

( 2) For the Nasdaq Comp (INDEX NASDAQ: .IXIC) (ETF: QQQ)
Closed 8/9 up  @    5,225.48  +12.34  (0.24%)
:: Closed   (above 8/9 PP)  (below 8/10 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)  5226.32
•   Support (s1)   5214.11      Support (s2) 5202.73
•   Resistance (r1)  5237.70    Resistance (r2)  5249.91
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  4971.45          (uptrend)
•   52 week performance  +3.75%   YTD performance  +4.35%

( 3) For the S&P 500 (INDEX SP: .INX) (ETF: SPY)
Closed 8/9 up  @   2,181.74   +0.85  (0.04%)
:: Closed   (above 8/9 PP)  (below 8/10 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)  2182.67
•   Support (s1)  2177.68        Support (s2)  2173.62
•   Resistance (r1)  2186.73     Resistance (r2)  2191.72
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  2122.44         (uptrend)
•   52 week performance  +4.69%  YTD performance  +6.74%

( 4) For the Russell 1000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUI) (ETF: IWD)
Closed 8/9 up  @  1,208.59  +0.63 (+0.05%)
:: Closed   (above 8/9 PP)  (below 8/10 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)   1209.02
•   Support (s1)  1206.47      Support (s2)  1204.35
•   Resistance (r1)  1211.14   Resistance (r2)  1213.69
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1174.92          (uptrend)
•   52 week performance  +2.98%   YTD performance  +6.78%

( 5) For the Russell 2000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUT) (ETF: IWM)
Closed 8/9 up  @  1,231.74  +1.32 (+0.11%)
:: Closed    (above 8/9 PP)  (above 8/10 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)  1231.52
•   Support (s1)   1229.66      Support (s2)   1227.57
•   Resistance (r1)  1233.61    Resistance (r2)  1235.47
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  1179.19          (uptrend)
•   52 week performance  +0.74%   YTD performance   +8.44%

( 6) For the Russell 3000 (INDEX RUSSELL: RUA)
Closed 8/9 up   @  1,289.30  +0.73 (+0.06%)
:: Closed   (above 8/9 PP)  (below 8/10 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)   1289.72
•   Support (s1)   1287.12     Support (s2)  1284.93
•   Resistance (r1)  1291.91   Resistance (r2)  1294.51
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):   1251.29          (uptrend)
•   52 week performance   +3.72%    YTD performance  +6.90%

( 7) For the CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T Note (INDEX CBOE: TNX)
Closed 8/9 down  @   15.45  -0.38 (-2.40%)
:: Closed   (below 8/9 PP)  (below 8/10 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)    15.59
•   Support (s1)    15.23      Support (s2)  15.02
•   Resistance (r1)  15.80     Resistance (r2)  16.16
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  15.78          (downtrend)
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 200)  19.06          (downtrend)
•   :: Close (150 days) above/below (+/-) sma200  (-3.614) pts., or (-18.958%)
•   :: 52 week performance  -27.70%   YTD performance  -31.91%

( 8) For the Volatility S&P500 (INDEX CBOE: VIX)
Closed 8/9 up  @  11.66  +0.16 (+1.39%)
:: Closed  (above 8/9 PP)  (above 8/10 PP)

•   :: Pivot point (PP)    11.53
•   Support (s1)    11.15      Support (s2)   10.63
•   Resistance (r1)  12.05     Resistance (r2)  12.43
•   Simple Moving Average (Close 50):  15.10         (downtrend)
•   :: 52 week performance   -14.33%   YTD performance  -35.97%
•     –   –   –   –           –   –   –   –

 IV.  Index “projected” Highs and Lows for Wednesday, 8/10/2016

• Index,  :: Projected High,  Projected Low
•   Dow Jones …. 18559.19  …  18481.62
•   Nasdaq……..  5243.81  …   5220.22
•   S&P 500 ……  2184.70  …   2175.65
•   Russell 1000 .  1212.42  …   1207.75
•   Russell 2000 .  1234.54  …   1230.59
•   Russell 3000 .  1293.21  …   1288.42
•   CBOE TNX ……   15.70  …     15.13
•   Volatility …    12.24  …     11.34

 V.  Index: 52week High,  52week Low, (Close 12/31/15)

• DJI Avg   ..  18622.01 ..  15370.33 .. (17425.03)  n/c
• Nasdaq …..   5238.54 c+   4209.76 ..  (5007.41)  c+*
• S&P 500 ….   2187.66 c+   1810.10 ..  (2043.94)  c+*
•   ——————————————-
• Rus 1k (RUI)   1211.57 c+    995.55 ..  (1069.65)  c+*
• Rus 2k (RUT)   1235.78 ..    943.10 ..  (1135.89)  n/c
• Rus 3k (RUA)   1292.33 c+   1056.45 ..  (1206.10)  c+*
• CBOE (TNX) ….. 23.77 …    13.36 …   (22.69)  n/c
• Volatility(VIX)  53.29 …    11.18 …   (18.21)  n/c
•    —     —     —     —     —     —
•   n/c* =no change  c-* =changed lower  c+* =changed higher

-–  Monday, 8/8/2016   thru    Friday 8/12/2016  ——

 

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Hope the above Index Support and Resistance calculations for Wednesday, 8/10/2016  helps your investing and trading planning today …